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(Editor’s Note: Rankings based on one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving, six points for every touchdown.)
- LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego - I know I’m in the minority picking Tomlinson as the number one running back and number one player in fantasy football this year. Honestly, Tomlinson, Johnson, and Alexander will all have great seasons, and as long as you have a top three pick, then there is nothing to worry about. All three have concerns, but in my opinion, Tomlinson’s concerns will actually gain him points this season. LT will have to deal with the loss of Drew Brees, but let me explain why this will be a positive for him. Tomlinson will get many more red zone touches. Antonio Gates was taking many of Tomlinson’s scoring chances away last season. Gates will still be there for the defense to worry about, yet Schottenheimer will have doubts about putting the ball in third-year rookie, Philip Rivers’ hands in the red zone. I predict 25 touchdowns for Tomlinson this season. He has the least question marks of the top three players, and as I said in the quarterbacks’ article: Don’t screw up your first round pick. This is even more relevant if your next picks are the twentieth and twenty-first picks in the draft.
- Larry Johnson, Kansas City - Apparently, I’m one of the few fantasy football players who don’t think Larry Johnson will run for nearly double his stats from his second half last year. I know that this has been said or read in every fantasy football publication, but in case you missed it, Larry Johnson ran for 1,351 yards and seventeen touchdowns in the last nine games. I wouldn’t doubt that LJ can run for 1,800 yards and 20 touchdowns this year, but I have a bad feeling. Tony Richardson has been one of the best fullbacks in the NFL for the last five years, and without him in the backfield, KC’s running attack won’t be the same. Be safe and grab Quentin Griffin or whoever backs up LJ when Holmes retires.
- Shaun Alexander, Seattle - Without Hutchinson and with a big contract, will Shaun Alexander be able to duplicate his numbers from last year? The answer is no. A return to his 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns from 2003 would be closer to accurate than last year’s 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns. Expect Alexander to drop off a little bit, but he still remains as one of the top three picks in any draft and scoring system.
(According to everyone, there is a large drop-off after the top three picks, yet don’t cash in your season yet. Injuries and free agent acquisitions are the ways to beat the teams with the top three selections. These three backs might equal two running backs at the end of the first round, yet if you draft sound players who will consistently hit the board with points and a few players who can blow up for triple digit yardage and multiple touchdown games, then you shouldn’t ever be out of contention. Consider drafting quarterbacks/receivers with late picks, at least you can have the number one at a position instead of the 10th and 11th best. Peyton Manning/Steve Smith is better than Domanick Davis and Steven Jackson. Look at how deep the running back waters run before being stubborn and spending your top two picks on the tailback position.)
- Edgerrin James, Arizona - The Cardinal’s offense will be potent this year. Edgerrin James will serve as equalizer for the excellent passing game, causing defenses big problems. I would consider the Arizona offense amongst the best in the NFL, so expect them to be scoring several more touchdowns and several less field goals this season. James may be closer to the top three than to the next six running backs. And he will always fall forward, gains great yardage, and now with Arizona will be allowed to enter the end zone many more times. I expect James to be in the 1,500 yard, 15 TD arena. He has the talent to do even more than that. Arizona may sound like a scary place to find a first round pick, but I believe that logic will be thrown out the window this year with a Cardinal playoff berth.
- Tiki Barber, New York Giants - The most consistently underrated player in fantasy football is back this year as a first round pick. Running backs over the age of thirty usually begin to decline, and that is my concern with Barber. But, he has had over 1,500 total yards for four years straight, and he has played in every game. Brandon Jacobs may receive some of Barber’s goal line carries, but Barber has posted three 10 TD seasons in his last four. He is also a consistent receiving threat, nabbing at least 50 receptions consistently throughout his career.
- Clinton Portis, Washington - His second year in Washington was very similar to his second year in Denver. Portis will be adjusted to Joe Gibbs’ offense this year, and this will help increase his production. Portis was a top three pick two years ago, and I expect big totals out of him again this year. He performed beautifully down the stretch during the fantasy football playoffs, so I expect him to start off stronger this year and finish with even better numbers than his 1,500 yard, 11 TD season from last year.
- LaMont Jordan, Oakland - Oakland’s new head coach, Art Shell, will focus more on a power running attack featuring Jordan. Although Jordan posted only a hair over 1,000 rushing yards last year, his strongest point is his receiving where he grabbed 70 receptions for 563 yards last year. I expect Jordan to come close to 1,300 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving this year. In a reception based league, he should be rated higher than Portis.
- Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati - Doubters keep doubting; Rudi keeps running. When Corey Dillon went down with an injury in 2003, Johnson stepped in, and has been more effective than Dillon. Cincinnati’s high powered offense will lead to many touchdowns, but Johnson’s lack of pass-catching ability gives Chris Perry a chance to play in crucial third-down situations. He gained 1,500 yards and 12 TDs each of the last two seasons, and he should match those numbers again this year.
- Steven Jackson, St. Louis - Mike Martz was the bane of the St. Louis rushing attack, constantly favoring to air the ball out, rather than grind the ball on the ground. New head coach Scott Linehan may choose to do the same thing, but he will probably be less stubborn and utilize Jackson more than Martz did. I believe Steve Smith and Peyton Manning would deserve a first-round pick over Steven Jackson, however he is certainly an early second-rounder, and could be a late first-rounder for stubborn people that refuse to do anything except take two running backs in the first two rounds. Jackson should do better than last year, gaining more than 1,200 rushing yards, while catching 50 balls and scoring double digit touchdowns.
- Domanick Davis, Houston – Whew! Keeper league owners – like our own guru, The Fantasy Man – let out a collective sigh of relief when Reggie Bush was controversially passed on. The owners of the Texans realized an extra 200-300 yards from Reggie Bush would not help anything but ticket and merchandise sales. (They should have traded down, but that’s a different topic entirely.) Davis gained 1,776 all-purpose yards two years ago, along with 14 TDs. Last year was a down year for an injured Dom, who gained more yards per game, but less yards. Expect Davis to only play 12 games, but post 1,300 all-purpose yards with 10 TDs. If he plays the whole season, then this will warrant an early second-round pick, but if not, he will hurt your team significantly.
- “Cadillac” Williams, Tampa Bay - Another injury threat placed among the top running backs. This year really is scary, and as unpredictable as football is, it will probably be Tomlinson and Alexander that tear ligaments. Injury threats should be considered just that, threats, because any player in football can get injured. It’s a physical game. Green Bay Packers iron man Brett Favre and ‘Fragile’ Fred Taylor may be at the opposite ends of the injury spectrum, however either of them can get injured this year. Last year consisted of inconsistency as Caddie exploded over the first few games, got injured, then came back averaging almost a hundred yards per game over the last seven. Always beware the sophomore slump.
- Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia - Without Terrell Owens, Westbrook might be the Eagles’ top receiver and rusher this year. He has the ability to be a first-round pick in a reception point league, but in a typical yardage-touchdown league, he will be a second round pick, and an ample starter. This might be the year that Westbrook breaks the thousand yard mark rushing. I expect 1,500 total yards, possibly more. Touchdowns, though, might be few and far between.
- Willis McGahee, Buffalo - Last year I doubted the reports of McGahee becoming a top-3 back. Without anything remotely resembling an aerial assault, the defense will constantly place eight men in the box, causing McGahee a world of problems. Five touchdowns last year give me concerns to spend a first round pick on Mr. McGahee. And, I absolutely will not make a “Whatcha talkin’ bout Willis” joke. Absolutely not.
- Cedric Benson, Chicago - Last year, Thomas Jones helped headline the Bears’ offense. This year, Benson will be taking over the starting job with Jones getting hurt during his physical and not participating in training camp. (You’d think that Thomas Jones would realize that he got his job because Benson held out last year, but that logic was clearly over his head.) Benson has almost been forgotten about as one of the top rookie running backs from last year, but I am guaranteeing a big year out of him if he stays healthy because he will begin and stay the starter.
- Ronnie Brown, Miami - I’m not convinced. Before someone crucifies me for placing Ronnie Brown below Cedric Benson, let me remind you that Brown has never had a full workload at Auburn or last year, splitting with Ricky Williams. Benson consistently took the carries at Texas, and he has fresh legs after not taking too many reps last year. Brown will be equivalent to Willis McGahee last year. Overrated and good, but not first-round superstar great.
- Reuben Droughns, Cleveland - I remember two years ago, rushing to my computer to pick up Droughns as the new feature back for the Broncos. Fast forward to the present, and surprisingly enough, Droughns is still performing at high-quality for the lowly Browns. I think last year may be a sign of things to come for Droughns, who will likely keep at the same pace, rather than getting much worse or much better. In short, expect more of the same.
- Warrick Dunn, Atlanta - My praises used to go out to Garrison Hearst for continually beating out younger running backs to hold on to the starting position, but now that honor belongs to Warrick Dunn. Regardless of how people view Dunn – too short, too old – he continues to produce at a good enough pace to warrant a starting spot on a fantasy football roster and for the Falcons at tailback. TJ Duckett has fallen back quite a bit, and no longer does he present an imminent challenge to Dunn.
- Chester Taylor, Minnesota - Minnesota has always ran the football, but this year without Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper, I would wager that they may be running the ball even more. Taylor has never had to carry the full load in the NFL, and I doubt that he will this year with Mewelde Moore sharing time in the backfield. The Vikings’ new head coach, Brad Childress, is not as big of a fan of the running attack, but I believe he will have to be with Brad Johnson at the helm of the passing game.
- Julius Jones, Dallas - Jones should be checking his blind spot because that’s Marion Barber in his rear view mirror. Jones was heralded as a young superstar running back waiting to happen, but he might not even be the best young RB on his own team. I would be a little concerned with his injury risk and his inability to break the thousand yard mark in either of his first two seasons. By no means is Julius a proven back that warrants anything more than a fourth round pick. He would be a reasonable third running back, however.
- Reggie Bush, New Orleans - I have Bush ranked ahead of McAllister, even though McAllister is ranked above Bush on the depth charts. As many other fantasy footballers agree, New Orleans will find a spot to play the recently inked Bush. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him line up at receiver or running back this year, and he will get his fair share of touches. I will not make any predictions for Bush because he is one player that I have just no idea what he will do or what he is capable of. For goodness sake, McAllister could get hurt, and he could end up getting 2,500 all-purpose yards. I’ll admit, I have no idea. What I can tell you is that he will be drafted very high in all leagues by the person who likes to draft players that have trading card value and, of course, in keeper leagues.
- Willie Parker, Pittsburgh - Without Jerome Bettis, Parker will succeed. “Fast” Willie only received two of 43 carries inside the opponents’ 10 yard line last season. I think those numbers will go up. Duce Staley may start to get some of Bettis’ carries, but Parker will get a good 50 more carries this year which should push him to around 1,400-1,500 yards. His game-breaking skills will lead to big plays, which would be rewarded in those type of leagues that give points for long touchdowns.
- Joseph Addaiun, Indianapolis - I beg Indy to stop the charade. Dominic Rhodes will not start a majority of games at running back this year. The Colts screwed up enormously by signing Reggie Wayne instead of Edgerrin James. (Like they couldn’t have put any receiver opposite Marvin Harrison to the effect of 1,000 yards and eight TDs.) Tell me when to stop. Donte Stallworth, Jerry Porter, Lee Evans, Nate Burleson, Terry Glenn, Laveranues Coles, Keyshawn Johnson, Troy Williamson, Ashley Lelie, ok maybe not Lelie, but all these guys could step in for Wayne. Brandon Stokley gained 1,000 yards and 10 TDs two seasons ago. Anyway, Addai will have a productive season, although not Edgerrin-like, it will be successful. A third RB spot reserved for Addai could turn into a starting role if he shows an immediate impact.
- Deuce McAllister, New Orleans - Last year, McAllister was a first round pick. This year, the Saints’ first-round pick has McAllister battling for a starting spot. Most likely, one will see McAllister and Bush splitting time on the field, and McAllister eventually giving way to the NFL’s version of Dominique Wilkins’ patented Human Highlight Reel. Taking McAllister would be considered quite a risk, and I would not be one to advise taking this leap of faith.
- Tatum Bell, Denver - Ron Dayne? Tatum Bell had problems taking over the full load last year with Mike Anderson in the backfield, but I don’t believe the former Heisman Trophy winner from Wisconsin will cause any problems for Bell. Dayne will not take any more carries away from Bell, and I believe Bell will have more than his sub-200 touches from last year. I would be surprised if Bell doesn’t have 225 carries and 25 receptions at the bare minimum, while Dayne has less carries and receptions.
- Corey Dillon, New England - Dillon is another back that has reached the magical age of decline. Dillon is over 30, and will not receive the 345 carries that he got in 2004, however he should gain more than 733 yards this year on the ground, if he happens to play in more than twelve games. Laurence Maroney may take over more in the middle of the field, but Corey Dillon will still get in to the end zone 8-10 times. In 12 games last year, he had 13 touchdowns.
- Jamal Lewis, Baltimore - Jamal Lewis will not run for 2,000 yards this year. I guarantee it. However, if Lewis does start to gather some steam, he is as effective a running back as there is in the NFL. Mike Anderson is backing up Lewis, and I wouldn’t be so sure that Lewis will remain the starter this entire year if things go from bad to worse. Lewis might gain 1,000 yards this year, but I doubt it. Don’t expect things, not to mention big things, out of him.
- DeShaun Foster, Carolina - Last year, Foster was supposed to be a sleeper that was capable of breaking out at any moment. Now, with the addition of DeAngelo Williams, he is merely another running back battling for a starting spot. Foster could have a big year if he gets 300 carries, but I would bet on a number closer to 200. A thousand yards isn’t out of reach, but they aren’t numbers warranting a starting spot on your fantasy squad.
- Chris Brown, Tennessee - We’ll see if Chris Brown can run it this year. LenDale White’s acquisition causes red flags to go up about Brown’s job security. I feel that Brown will be a running back that will continue to hold his job in the league for several more years just like the aforementioned Hearst and Dunn. Although I reserve the right to say that I might be completely and wholeheartedly incorrect.
- Ahman Green, Green Bay - Boy, how the mighty have fallen. I don’t remember another year when so many first-round picks have turned into fantasy benchwarmers. But, my memory may just be going bad. Green had a fantastic offensive line three years ago that helped catapult him to a 1,883 yard season. Green looked completely ineffective last year before an injury sidelined him for the rest of the 2005 campaign. The offensive line and the seeming decline of Brett Favre have killed the possibility of Ahman Green becoming a 1,300 yard rusher ever again.
- Fred Taylor, Jacksonville - Fred Taylor is not as injury prone as one might think. Although, he did get injured last year, I would expect fourteen games out of him. The problem with Taylor is the role that he will be playing this year with Greg Jones, Alvin Pearman, and the newly Jaguared Maurice Drew. Taylor will likely see a reduced role this year as they try to phase out the 30-year old.
And, the best of the rest . . . :
- Ron Dayne, Denver
- Kevin Jones, Detroit
- Curtis Martin, New York Jets
- Mike Anderson, Baltimore
- Thomas Jones, Chicago
- Laurence Maroney, New England
- DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
- Dominic Rhodes, Indianapolis
- Samkon Gado, Green Bay
- LenDale White, Tennessee
- Mewelde Moore, Minnesota
- Greg Jones, Jacksonville
- TJ Duckett, Atlanta
- Cedric Houston, New York Jets
- Maurice Drew, Jacksonville
- Marion Barber III, Dallas
- Frank Gore, San Francisco
- Kevan Barlow, San Francisco
- Ryan Moats, Philadelphia
- Brian Calhoun, Detroit - He will be starting by the end of the year. Mark my words. If the Lions had anyone other than Artose Pinner, Kevin Jones wouldn’t have seen the field for the second half of last year.
- Chris Perry, Cincinnati
- Eric Shelton, Carolina
- Michael Pittman, Tampa Bay
- Antowain Smith, Houston
- Ladell Betts, Washington
- Najeh Davenport, Green Bay
- Duce Staley, Pittsburgh
- JJ Arrington, Arizona
- Michael Bennett, New Orleans
- Travis Henry, Tennessee
Jim Snaza can be reached at jim.snaza@atomicsportsmedia.com
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