The Astros could be an interesting team in a weakened NL Central. The Cardinals aren’t as dominant as they’ve been the past few years, the Brewers, Reds, and Pirates should be improved, and the Cubs are always one Mark Prior/Kerry Wood injury away from having their season wind up in the gutter.

All that being said, the Astros could finish anywhere from 1st to 6th in their division this season. Some of that might depend upon when/if Roger Clemens ever returns to the Houston rotation. The prediction here is that not even making it to the finals of the World Baseball Classic left a bad taste in the Rocket’s mouth and he will come back to pitch sometime in 2006. Whether that’s with the ‘Stros is yet to be determined, and the Texas Rangers have been making a major push to sign Clemens. I still get the feeling that Clemens will be pitching in Houston come June, but we shall see.

With or without Clemens, the Astros will be hard-pressed to make a return trip to the World Series. The pitching staff is solid again, but the offense has taken a step backward for the second consecutive year. The Astros still have a puncher’s chance in a weakened National League, but if I were a Houston fan I wouldn’t be putting money aside for playoff tickets just yet.

Pitching

Even if Clemens retires or signs with another team, the Astros have a formidable top-3 in their rotation. Ace Roy Oswalt is one of the best in the game, coming off two straight 20-win seasons. His 2.94 ERA last season was the second best of his career and his 241.2 innings pitched were a career high.

Andy Pettitte had a resurgence of sorts last year after an injury-ridden 2005, going 17-9 with a superb 2.39 ERA in 33 starts. Having started only 15 games in ’05, Pettitte’s return to prominence was a major reason why the Astros ended up in the World Series last season. Pettitte didn’t look sharp in his first outing of the spring this week, but he took some extended time off this winter and should be in fine shape by Opening Day.

Brandon Backe is the third starter, and a major enigma. Last year’s numbers aren’t impressive (10-8, 4.76), but Backe is capable of looking like Cy Young on any given night. He had a coming out of sorts in the 2004 playoffs, but wasn’t able to build on that last season. Backe will turn 28 the first week of April and this might be a make-or-break year for the right-hander More than anything else, pitching coach Jim Hickey and manager Phil Garner are looking for consistency out of Backe. Fifteen wins would be a godsend.

After Backe, the rotation gets very young, very quickly. Left-handed Wandy Rodriguez pitched some big innings for the Astros last year, but despite his age (27), he only has 22 major-league starts under his belt. For Houston to contend, his 5.53 ERA is going to have to come down quite a bit. Right-hander Ezequiel Astacio is very similar to Rodriguez: limited experience and mixed results. The Astros need one of these two, or minor league prospect Fernando Nieve, to have a breakout year if they want to make some noise in the NL Central.

The bullpen is a major bright spot for this team. While the names might not impress you (Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Russ Springer, Mike Gallo, Trever Miller), the Astros have done a wonderful job over the past few years to stock the pen with solid hurlers that get the job done.

Closer Brad Lidge is one of the best in the game, despite giving up big postseason home runs to Albert Pujols of the Cardinals in the NLCS and Scott Podsednik of the White Sox in the World Series. With 42 saves and a 2.29 ERA, Lidge had a remarkable season in 2005, even if it was sullied by his postseason misfortune. And don’t think for a second that he won’t bounce back in 2006. When you strike out 103 batters in 70.2 innings like Lidge did last season, you don’t just suddenly forget how to get guys out.

Infield

Catcher Brad Ausmus was re-signed, at least partially because Clemens said he definitely wouldn’t return unless Ausmus was back. The backstop isn’t much of an asset with the stick (.258 average in ’05), but he’s one of the best in the game defensively and knows how to handle a pitching staff. This year will be a challenge for Ausmus, trying to coax double-digit wins out of some young (Rodriguez, Astacio) and inconsistent (Backe) pitchers.

First base is a major dilemma. Franchise stalwart Jeff Bagwell has been battling a debilitating shoulder injury for the last several years. The club would like him to be declared physically unable to play so that they can collect insurance to pay for his $15 million salary, but Bagwell wants a chance to prove he can still hack it. It’s an ugly situation, and it’s unfortunate that Bagwell is unable to finish his career the way he has played throughout it: hard-nosed and without need for recognition. Bagwell is a Hall of Famer and should be treated as such, by his own organization at the very least.

If Bagwell isn’t at first, which seems more likely every day, Lance Berkman will take over the position. Berkman missed the early part of 2005 with a knee injury, but still hit 24 home runs in only 132 games. You can expect 30, 100, .300 from Berkman in ’06.

Second baseman Craig Biggio, future Hall of Famer and the all-time leader in getting hit by pitches, had a career high in home runs last season (26), his first back at second base after playing the outfield for several years. Biggio, an all-star at catcher and second base, has always been a team-first player and his grind-it-out style of play will be a plus for a Houston club that will likely struggle to score runs.

Shortstop Adam Everett is your typical all-glove no-hit player. He’s a wizard at short and turns the double play beautifully, but his .248 average isn’t going to win him a Silver Slugger anytime soon.

Third baseman Morgan Ensberg had a breakout season in 2005. Playing in more than 131 games for the first time in his career, Ensberg slugged 36 home runs to lead the team and drove in 101. He carried the team down the stretch and was a large reason why they made the playoffs at all.

Eric Bruntlett and Mike Lamb are the infield backups. Both are capable players who will see a lot of action as Phil Garner loves the double switch and changes his lineup like he changes his underwear.

Outfield

With Berkman moving to the infield, the Astros get a lot younger in the outfield. Chris Burke takes over for Lance in left, getting his first crack at an everyday job. Centerfielder Willy Taveras was a Rookie of the Year candidate last season and provides a burst of speed to the lineup. New acquisition Preston Wilson will play right, and hopefully add some pop to an anemic Houston attack.

Burke is most remembered for his home run that lifted the Astros over the Braves in the 18th inning of the deciding game in the Division Series last season. He’s a scrappy player in the Biggio mold, but don’t expect the same caliber of offense to come from Burke, at least not yet.

Taveras is a real spark in centerfield. He’s a thrilling player defensively and dynamic on the bases. He hit .291 last season in 152 games, but the club would like to see him raise his .325 on-base percentage if he’s going to be their everyday leadoff hitter.

Wilson split last season between Colorado and Washington, hitting 25 home runs in the process. At 32 he should still be in his prime and the cozy hitting environment at Minute Maid Park might help him approach his career-high of 36 home runs.

Backups Orlando Palmeiro and Jason Lane are both good hitters off the bench for Garner. They both also play solid defense and should see a lot of playing time.

Outlook

As stated above, this club could finish anywhere from first to last in the division. If Clemens comes back, Pettitte and Oswalt have characteristic seasons, and the offense shows up before July (something it has failed to do in each of the past two seasons), the Astros might have a shot at a division crown. The prediction here is that they finish behind the Cubs and Cards, but if the Rocket comes back anything is possible.

Steve Schaefer is still reeling from Syracuse's second straight first round NCAA Tournament loss. He'll console himself at night with memories of being part of the run to the national championship in his freshman year. You can reach him at steve.schaefer@atomicsportsmedia.com