The former Montreal Expos are hoping that their sophomore season in the nation’s capital will bring more success then the first.  The Nationals were outstanding in the first half last season but a second half collapse led to a final record of 81-81, and the Nats found themselves in the NL East cellar.  Last year’s secret weapon was closer Chad Cordero who came out of anonymity to post 47 saves and a 1.82 ERA. Cordero and the pitching staff were overworked trying to win 2-1 games every night because of anemic run support. The Nationals knew they needed more offensive firepower and acquired second baseman Alfonso Soriano from the Rangers to provide it. By losing Vinny Castilla and Preston Wilson, the Nats also lost 27 home runs and 113 RBI; Soriano should be able to replace those numbers, but he’s unhappy and has said he will refuse a move to the outfield upon returning from the World Baseball Classic. Soriano has been one of the most productive second baseman in baseball over recent years as he has recorded three consecutive 30-30 seasons, and if the Nats can’t keep him happy and productive it will be a major issue. Washington also acquired right-handed pitcher Brian Lawrence who will fill the rotation spot vacated by Esteban Loaiza who departed as a free agent.
    Even with the addition of Soriano, the Nationals lineup doesn’t exactly strike fear into opposing pitchers.  Last season, the most consistent hitter for the Nats was Nick Johnson who batted .289 with 15 home runs.  Jose Guillen led the team in home runs (27) and RBI (76), but an injured wrist cost him 14 games at the end of the season.  Guillen’s return to form is essential, but the Nationals need Soriano to have a monster year no matter what.
    The Nationals pitching staff was the bright spot of the team last season. Ace Livan Hernandez is a bullpen’s dream: he’s a horse who pitches deep into almost every start. The acquisition of Lawrence offsets the loss of Loaiza, but he's not the same caliber of pitcher, so John Patterson will have to come up with another solid season for the Nationals; he had a 9-7 record, 3.13 ERA and threw 198.3 innings in 31 starts in ’05. After Hernandez, Lawrence, and Patterson the Nationals are very thin in the rotation. Some combination of Tony Armas Jr., Ramon Ortiz, and Ryan Drese will make the bulk of the starts, but unless they have career years it’s doubtful the Nats will compete in the NL East.
If the Nationals somehow figure out a way to get to the ninth inning with a lead, their fortunes change drastically.  Cordero established his place among the best in baseball last season by going 47 for 54 in save opportunities and leading the National League.  To get to Cordero, the Nationals have a very good crew of setup men and long relievers.  Gary Majewski appeared in 79 games last year and surrendered an earned run average of only 2.93.  Other Washington relievers including Joey Eischen, Luis Ayala, and Mike Stanton all had ERA’s less than 3.60 last season.  A solid bullpen is essential to contend and it’s one of the few requirements that the Nats meet. 
    Expect the Nationals to play a lot of close games and win a lot of them thanks to their outstanding bullpen. Ultimately however, their lackluster lineup will doom them.  Don’t anticipate the Nats to be in the playoff hunt; fourth in the division is more likely.

Josh Ellis can be reached via email at josh.ellis@atomicsportsmedia.com