Pitching and defense win championships.  Old adages that young Theo Epstein mortgaged his reputation and legacy believing in, clichés that eventually brought Boy Wonder back to Beantown. 

Not for a moment should this off-season baseball soap opera – replete with elaborate costumes, including an Epstein-clad guerilla suit – be minimized as a spat between beloved protégé and jealous mentor.  Certainly, it was that.  More importantly, though, it was a test of wills – an immense and important clash of personality and philosophy – about how to successfully shape the future of the Boston Red Sox.  And Epstein won out.

Wise beyond his years, Epstein in the last couple of seasons must have had an epiphany.  Pressured my media and fans alike to compete with the ever-expanding (and over-spending) Evil Empire, the Yale grad undoubtedly saw the parallels between the team behind this clever nickname and its historical parallel. 

Don’t mistake the metaphors: Steinbrenner is no Stalin, nor are his players ever going to be accused of living in an equal and communal existence anytime in the near future.  But there are similarities, ones Epstein recognized and refused to accept any longer.  Instead, he drew a line in the sand.

Pedro Martinez became the first test case.  Cult hero, World Series champ, and the most dominating pitcher of the last decade, Martinez professed that he preferred to stay in Boston; his asking price: four years and $53 million.  Epstein could have done the easy and popular thing and caved.  He didn’t: he let him walk.  Blasphemy?  Perhaps.  But also a sage business decision. 

A great indication that this indeed was just a temporary event was illustrated by the Johnny Damon negotiations.  Now, instead of the New York Mets as the principle suitor it was their cross-town rivals, the Red Sox most hated foe: the Yankees.  It was a classic case of brinksmanship – the lone remaining hegemons facing each other down.  Ultimately, the Yankees, the Evil Empire, prevailed – but not for the reasons most think

Following the Martinez precedent, Epstein surmised that whereas Damon is great now, the best leadoff hitter in the game, with the unabashed recklessness he plays the game, his ascending age, and lack of arm strength in center, he won’t stay at that pinnacle for long. 

So to avoid having such a sizable contract on the books in 2008 – quite unlike a $20 million a year Manny Ramirez who, despite his flightiness, still posts at least a .300, 40 home runs and 142 RBI every season – Epstein went out and got coveted Indians outfielder Coco Crisp. 

No, he’s not as good as Johnny Damon is now, but when compared to when Damon was his age, the similarities simmer.  And considering he will be getting paid $10.25 million less than Damon and Epstein’s logic becomes all the more clear.

It is this philosophy – identify a monetary value for each player based on importance of position, age, and potential future production and don’t exceed that amount for anyone, no matter previous heroics or current popularity – that embodies Theo Epstein’s approach to baseball and the future of the Red Sox. 

In 2004 the Red Sox had the pitching, they got the defense by trading Nomar Garciaparra for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz, and together this recipe produced a delicious feast, one not tasted in Beantown for 86 years. 

Now back in the Fens, 2006 will be a perfect test of his philosophy. (This same credo was executed with perfection by Boston’s pale hose counterparts, who summarily swept the BoSox in three games last postseason.) He has remade the team with that philosophy in mind; October baseball can only truly judge this makeover.  The analysis of the parts that will make up this sum takes place six months earlier, here, now.

In an off-season replete with American League East acquisitions – both great and small – none were more important than the trade that brought 25-year old hurler Josh Beckett to Boston.  Comparisons to former Red Sox dynamo Roger Clemens are apt to a point; what crucial attribute that should not be ignored, though, is that Beckett is a proven winner – and Yankee killer.

Beckett definitely has the stuff, savvy, and attitude necessary to thrive on the biggest of stages.  Still, his mysterious and confounding blisters are a palpable concern to the Nation.

A healthy Curt Schilling this year could also prove as big a boon as the signing of a stud free agent.  Uncharacteristically awful last season, Schilling has much to prove, both to himself and his legions of fans.  His mangled ankle – the reason both the Red Sox beat the Yankees in that famous ALCS and the cause of his woes last season – is much healthier, and he should be much closer to his ’04 numbers than ’05 in ’06. 

A subtle, but hugely important, ramification of the Beckett acquisition (and Schilling’s presumable clean bill of health) is that the Sox again have a bona fide 1-2 combination at the top of their rotation.  This allows the most senior – in tenure (12) and age (39) – Red Sox pitcher, Tim Wakefield, to hold down a more comfortable spot as the number three starter.  The de facto ace last season, Wakefield and his dancing knuckleball will fare even better against other staff’s non-aces.  He still remains a big game pitcher of the highest order.

That brings us to the three gents battling for the last two spots in Boston’s rotation.  Bronson Arroyo, Matt Clement, and young fireballer Jonathan Papelbon are in many ways the key to the Sox success this season.  All have talent, but what the team needs out of them is consistency.  Quality starts, six innings, three out of every four outings.

If they can do this, the Sox will win 95 games, at least the wild card, and very possibly the American League pennant.

Currently penciled in as their third starter, it is a foregone conclusion that he’ll be pitching on the West Coast by Opening Day.  Getting speedster (and ALCS Game 4 stolen base hero) Dave Roberts would be the ideal situation for the Sox, but they’ll take about any major leaguer to unload the hefty (salary) of Wells.  They are loaded with starting pitching and are well aware that Wells is far past his prime.  Even his knack for winning big games was tested last season.

The bullpen, too, looks like an area of strength, when just a year ago it was cited as Boston’s most vulnerable aspect.  Its formidable presence is a direct off-shoot of the starting rotation’s depth.  Whoever loses out on the fifth spot will go into long relief or, in the likely case of Papelbon, as a setup man – the Brendan Donnally of the East Coast – for Mike Timlin (who sets up for stopper Keith Foulke). 

Other arms that will be key contributors are highly-touted youngsters Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen.  The latter, their 2005 first round draft pick, showed signs of brilliance in his cup of coffee last September.  A proficient closer at St. John’s, he will push Foulke to pitch his best.

Coming off a huge campaign last year, Mike Timlin remains the glue that holds this Sox bullpen together.  The team’s most consistent pitcher, he is charged with getting the ball from those who pitch the sixth and seventh to Foulke in the ninth.  A mainstay in the eighth inning this year, look for Timlin to possibly garner as many as 80 appearances.

Likely to be the only southpaw out of the pen, Lenny DiNardo will be expected to get the big outs in the seventh and eighth innings.  If they keep two lefties, Abe Alvarez will probably get the call.  Don’t forget about the very talented Jon Lester, though.  This 22-year old will start at Triple-A Pawtucket, but should see big league action as early as late May.

Two key under-the-radar acquisitions will also play pivotal roles this season.  Both Julian Tavarez (he of the wicked temper) and the very solid David Riske (acquired with Coco Crisp from the Indians) can be relied heavily on to get batters out in important situations. 

This bunch – a sage mixture of veterans and rookies, those who have won and those who need to learn how to win – will succeed and fail together.  If they can find consistency and keep this cohesion throughout the grueling six month regular season, all will be well in Beantown. 

Don’t underestimate the loss of pitching coach Dave Wallace, though.  A consummate pro beset with a serious hip infection, Wallace will be greatly missed – most notably as a trusted advisor of manager Terry Francona.

In the field, all the Red Sox did to upgrade a defense which committed 109 errors last season (fourth worst in the AL) was ink two gold-glovers (corner infielders Mike Lowell and J.T. Snow) as well as perennial candidate shortstop Alex Gonzalez (no, the other one) and provide a fundamentally solid pivot in second baseman Mark Loretta. 

Their outfield, too, received in upgrade with a healthy Trot Nixon returning.  By platooning in right field, Dustin Mohr or perhaps recently-mended (ruptured Achilles tendon) Gabe Kapler will try to keep Nixon fresh and healthy for the stretch drive.

A wet noodle – with or without the crow hop – could throw the ball harder from center than Johnny Damon did.  Still, Fenway is tricky, especially in the triangle, so Coco Crisp would be advised to shag hundreds of extra fly balls there to hasten the acclimation process. 

Finally, we have Manny Ramirez.  Besides hitting-the-cover-off-of-the-ball, what Ramirez does for a living well is play the ball off the Monster.  His major league-leading 17 outfield assists bears this out.  It is also an indication of how short – if 37 foot tall – that porch is.  He has perfected playing ridiculously shallow, knowing full well that anything hit over his head is either gone or off the façade; greater minds have not played the percentages – or the caroms – as well as Ramirez does in left field at the Fens.

Oh how times have changed.  Not since Nomah and Mo Vaughn were just names talked about at the ballpark – vague and rumored minor league players bantered about by fans in idle baseball chatter to one-up those current major leaguers who were presently offering up sub par performances – has their been any concern whatever about the Red Sox scoring runs.  Now, though, that is the principle unknown when analyzing, debating, and prognosticating the Sox chances of success this season.

Most of this pressure falls on the shoulders of Coco Crisp.  Pushed out of his starting center field job by the dynamic Grady Sizemore in Cleveland, Crisp now not only has to deal with the crazy confines of Fenway, but bat lead-off consistently for the first time in his career.  He should be able to adjust, as his skills and mindset are ideally suited for the challenge. 

Mark Loretta, like pitchers Josh Beckett and David Riske, brings everything the Red Sox need in one package.  He is a perfect number two hitter – he’ll take pitches, lay down the bunt, and advance the runner with equal commitment and success – plays a fundamentally sound second base, is great in the locker room, and can play well in the clutch – he is, in the very way Manny Ramirez is not, a true professional. 

What’s more, the guy can flat out hit.  Witness his lifetime .301 average, including .335 in 2004 for the San Diego Padres.  And feast on this Red Sox Nation: after going from Milwaukee to Houston in a 2002 deadline deal, he hit .424 in September and October.  The only knock on him is health; with capable backups like Alex Cora and Tony Graffanino, even that is much less a concern this year.

In the three hole: Big Papi.  Slighted for last year’s AL MVP award, David Ortiz will provide statistical redemption worthy of garnering this year’s hardware.  Much has been said and written about the gigantic man with the wide smile and infectious grin, but with the game on the line, there is no better clutch hitter in baseball. 

Anyone that watched the Sox in the pennant race or the playoffs – especially in person – understands what Ortiz means to this team, and why he should have won that trophy.  No matter, look for similar phenomenal numbers this year to the ones he has put up the last three seasons.

Manny Ramirez will be a key component of that production.  Together they form the most lethal combination punch in the game.  Apart, they’d still be pretty good, but as teammates they are simply special. 

Take Game 3 of last year’s ALCS.  Nobody could hit the White Sox pitching – Johnny Damon’s ill-timed-bases-loaded-bout with indecision the most glaring example – that day except for those two, who lit up the scoreboard with three solo home runs.  Coupled with his care free, leavening attitude, no one matters to the team more than David Ortiz.

Manny Ramirez is a completely different story entirely.  There is no disputing his utility, but far too much attention is paid to his ‘antics’ and less on his Hall of Fame numbers.  For goodness sake, this guy averages 38 home runs and 123 runs batted in per full season.  He is one of the ten best hitters of all-time.  And it is a shame – though, certainly, much of the blame should fall on him – how little that is talked about.  Crucial, too, is his durability.  Sure he sits out games when he shouldn’t, when he has had them ‘approved’ in advance, but he rarely misses a game due to an actual injury. 

Catcher, and Red Sox captain, Jason Varitek protects Ramirez in the lineup.  Like Ortiz, Varitek is character driven and leads by example.  The finest all-around catcher in he league, Varitek is also a switch hitter who has found a way to tailor his stroke – and overall hitting philosophy – to Fenway’s crazy dimensions.  Although he struggled in the second half of the season last year, look for another solid-to-spectacular campaign for him in 2006.

Like Coco Crisp, Mike Lowell is new to Boston, acquired along with Josh Beckett.  Unlike the kid-cereal-turned-major-league-centerfielder, no one seems to expect much offensively out of Mike Lowell.  Which is strange since from 2000-2004, he never hit lower than .270 for the Florida Marlins.  During that span he averaged 25 home runs and 95 RBI.  Although his numbers fell off precipitously, Sox fans shouldn’t be overly concerned and – teamed with the Green Monster – can expect a great 2006 season. 

Trot Nixon’s aforementioned health issues have gotten plenty of pub, but when ready and able the guy is a force – especially when playing at home.  In the clutch, in big games, Nixon shines.  He has been and continues to be a crucial face of and importance to the Red Sox.

Hitting in the eight hole this year for Boston will probably be the first baseman, either veteran J.T. Snow or Kevin Youklis.  The kid – who was unceremoniously shuffled to-and-from the minors seemingly every other week last season – will get most of the ABs, with Snow taking over defensively late in close games.

Remember those light hitting, slick fielding shortstops of the 1980s?  Alex Gonzalez is cleanly cut from that mold.  With a lifetime average of .245 he is well above the Mendoza line, but is definitely not Nomah – or even Edgar Renteria for that matter.  He was brought in for his glove work, though, and his penchants for flashing the leather is already drawing rave reviews.

Riding the pine will be the versatile Alex Cora, utility man-extraordinaire Tony Graffanino, as well as outfielder Adam Stern.  Either former Indian Josh Bard or ex-Yankee will assume Doug Mirabelli’s role as Varitek’s backup and have the unenviable task of catching Tim Wakefield’s knuckleballer every fifth day.

With a rebuilt pitching staff, renaissance infield, and retooled lineup, the Red Sox – under the sage tutelage of Terry Francona – will win the American League East by a game over the Yankees.  In the postseason, they will again face the Angels, squeaking by in four, provide poetic retribution to the White Sox in six before capping the autumnal irony by defeating the New York Mets in seven, the penultimate finale in the Fens, Josh Beckett over Pedro Martinez.

Originally from Madison, Wisconsin, Nicholas Jon Wood currently lives in Boston – at least for the next six days.  Then it’s off to our nation’s capital; when not an integral participant in interstate commerce, he fails to pay tolls, usually goes the speed limit, and never drives angry.

He can be reached via email at nicholas.wood@atomicsportsmedia.com.