San Diego Padres
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/265/1/San-Diego-Padres.html
Brian Polking
By Brian Polking
Published on 03/29/2006
The Padres won the NL West last season, but only finished one game over .500. With an improved Dodger team and a healthy Barry Bonds to contend with in 2006, San Diego will need a much better record to repeat. Brian Polking examines the Padres chances.
The good news for the San Diego Padres is that they enter the 2006 season as the defending NL West division champions. The bad news is that the Padres’ 82-80 record from last season tied the 1973 New York Mets (82-79) for fewest wins by a playoff team, and the St. Louis Cardinals swept San Diego out of the playoffs in the first round.
Coming off a playoff year and with the core of the team returning this season, anything short of another trip to the postseason will be a disappointment for the Padres. In an effort to avoid setback and ensure a postseason birth, the Padres front office made a number of changes to an offense that was dreadful last season. Last season the Padres ranked 27th in runs scored (684), 25th in batting average (.257) and 26th in home runs (130). Playing 81 games each year in cavernous PETCO Park doesn’t help a struggling offense either.
The poor production is not reflective of the talent on the roster however, as the Padres aren’t devoid of good hitters. Outfielder Brian Giles is the heart of the lineup; last season he hit .301 with 15 homers and 83 RBIs. He also led the majors with 119 walks. Having dealt Phil Nevin late last season, Giles is the biggest bat left in the San Diego lineup.
Joining Giles in the outfield are Dave Roberts and newcomer Mike Cameron. Roberts is still a threat to steal a base and can be an effective leadoff man. Cameron is a high-risk/high- reward player. He strikes out too much, but he also once hit four home runs in a game. Both Roberts and Cameron are assets defensively: natural center fielders that can cover a lot of ground in the outfield, a necessity in a park as spacious as PETCO.
In the infield, first baseman Ryan Klesko and shortstop Khalil Greene are the only returning starters. Klesko led the team last season with 18 home runs, but hit just .248. With Nevin gone, the Padres need Klesko’s power numbers to improve. Greene is a human highlight reel at shortstop, but a work-in-progress at the plate. If the former Clemson Tiger has a breakout year and hits around .300 with 20 homers, it would be monumental for the Padres.
Newly acquired Mike Piazza and Doug Mirabelli will try to replace Ramon Hernandez – a solid catcher who signed with the Orioles in the offseason. The team expects Piazza to catch around 100 games, and although his best years are far behind him he can still provide the power that the Padres need. The downside is that Piazza has never been confused with a Gold Glover defensively, and saying he struggles to throw out runners is generous.
New third baseman Vinny Castilla, struggled last year with the Nationals, but led the National League in RBI with Colorado in 2004. Castilla probably won’t lead the league in RBIs, but he should be able to improve the Padres low home run total. At the least, Castilla should provide sound defense and more power than former third basemen Joe Randa and Sean Burroughs. Burroughs, the former Little League World Series hero and top prospect, had been a disappointment since his debut in 2002. In a long-discussed move, the Padres finally gave up on him, dealing him to the Devil Rays for erratic pitcher Dewon Brazelton.
Boston castoff Mark Bellhorn is expected to replace Mark Loretta at second base, but I’m not sure he is up to the task. Loretta was one of the best hitting second basemen in the National League and a perfect hit-and-run candidate with great bat control. Bellhorn, on the other hand, is one of the best in the league at striking out and hit just .210 last year. On paper, this move looks like a major downgrade, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres look elsewhere for help at second base at some point this season.
Whether the new players improve the Padres’ offense remains to be seen, but the strength of this team is pitching. The Padres ranked 13th in ERA last season (4.13) and fifth in strikeouts (1133), and the team will only go as far as their pitching can take them in 2006.
At the top of the Padres’ rotation is Jake Peavy. Peavy is the team’s ace, one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he hasn’t even come near his ceiling yet. He has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in two straight seasons and had 216 strikeouts in 203 innings last year. Every time he takes the mound he goes deep into the game, and he is the team’s stopper every fifth game, virtually guaranteeing that prolonged losing streaks will be a rarity.
Thirteen-year veteran Woody Williams returns to the rotation this season, but Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence are both gone. Replacing them are rookie Brian Sikorski, second-year man Tim Stauffer and Chris Young, a power arm acquired from the Rangers for Eaton.
Sikorski and Stauffer will be starting on a consistent basis for the first time in their careers, so their productivity is far from certain. Young, on the other hand, could be due for breakout season. He is a 26-year-old, 6-10 righty that compiled a 12-7 record and posted a 4.26 ERA last season for the Rangers – good numbers considering he pitched in Ameriquest Field, a hitters park. By the end of the year, Young should be the Padres’ number-two starter thanks in part to pitcher-friendly PETCO.
The depth of the Padres’ pitching staff depends on the performances of Chan Ho Park and Dewon Brazelton. Both can spot start, provide long relief when needed, and might even find their way into the rotation due to injury or if one of the young starters can’t hack it.
Park has struggled the last three years with the Rangers, but he posted a sub-4.00 ERA in five of six seasons with the Dodgers. PETCO Park – like Dodgers Stadium – is a notoriously pitcher-friendly park. If the Padres are lucky, Park will use the spacious park to resurrect his career.
Brazelton was the third overall pick in the 2001 draft, and showed flashes of dominance for the Devil Rays, despite being demoted back to A-ball at one point. He had a horrendous season in 2005, posting a 1-8 record with a 7.61 ERA. If Brazelton can conquer his control issues and take advantage of PETCO’s dimensions, he could be an unexpected surprise for the Padres.
If the Padres’ starters can pitch into the seventh inning on a consistent basis, their bullpen will help them win a lot of close games. The back end of the Padres staff is among the beset in baseball thanks in large part to Scott Linebrink, one of the best setup men in the game. Last season he went 8-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 73 innings.
In the ninth, the Padres give the ball to Trevor “Hells Bells” Hoffman – one of the best closers in the game. Never an exceptionally hard-thrower, Hoffman has effectively used his changeup to stifle hitters for years, notching 436 career saves, including 43 in 2005.
The Padres starting rotation is solid, the bullpen is excellent and their offense should be improved this season. The ingredients are all in place for another postseason run. Unfortunately, the offseason upgrades might not matter because the health of Barry Bonds might be the determining factor of whether or not they defend their NL West crown.
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The Padres won the NL West last season, but only finished one game over .500. With an improved Dodger team and a healthy Barry Bonds to contend with in 2006, San Diego will need a much better record to repeat. Brian Polking examines the Padres chances.
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The good news for the San Diego Padres is that they enter the 2006 season as the defending NL West division champions. The bad news is that the Padres’ 82-80 record from last season tied the 1973 New York Mets (82-79) for fewest wins by a playoff team, and the St. Louis Cardinals swept San Diego out of the playoffs in the first round.
Coming off a playoff year and with the core of the team returning this season, anything short of another trip to the postseason will be a disappointment for the Padres. In an effort to avoid setback and ensure a postseason birth, the Padres front office made a number of changes to an offense that was dreadful last season. Last season the Padres ranked 27th in runs scored (684), 25th in batting average (.257) and 26th in home runs (130). Playing 81 games each year in cavernous PETCO Park doesn’t help a struggling offense either.
The poor production is not reflective of the talent on the roster however, as the Padres aren’t devoid of good hitters. Outfielder Brian Giles is the heart of the lineup; last season he hit .301 with 15 homers and 83 RBIs. He also led the majors with 119 walks. Having dealt Phil Nevin late last season, Giles is the biggest bat left in the San Diego lineup.
Joining Giles in the outfield are Dave Roberts and newcomer Mike Cameron. Roberts is still a threat to steal a base and can be an effective leadoff man. Cameron is a high-risk/high- reward player. He strikes out too much, but he also once hit four home runs in a game. Both Roberts and Cameron are assets defensively: natural center fielders that can cover a lot of ground in the outfield, a necessity in a park as spacious as PETCO.
In the infield, first baseman Ryan Klesko and shortstop Khalil Greene are the only returning starters. Klesko led the team last season with 18 home runs, but hit just .248. With Nevin gone, the Padres need Klesko’s power numbers to improve. Greene is a human highlight reel at shortstop, but a work-in-progress at the plate. If the former Clemson Tiger has a breakout year and hits around .300 with 20 homers, it would be monumental for the Padres.
Newly acquired Mike Piazza and Doug Mirabelli will try to replace Ramon Hernandez – a solid catcher who signed with the Orioles in the offseason. The team expects Piazza to catch around 100 games, and although his best years are far behind him he can still provide the power that the Padres need. The downside is that Piazza has never been confused with a Gold Glover defensively, and saying he struggles to throw out runners is generous.
New third baseman Vinny Castilla, struggled last year with the Nationals, but led the National League in RBI with Colorado in 2004. Castilla probably won’t lead the league in RBIs, but he should be able to improve the Padres low home run total. At the least, Castilla should provide sound defense and more power than former third basemen Joe Randa and Sean Burroughs. Burroughs, the former Little League World Series hero and top prospect, had been a disappointment since his debut in 2002. In a long-discussed move, the Padres finally gave up on him, dealing him to the Devil Rays for erratic pitcher Dewon Brazelton.
Boston castoff Mark Bellhorn is expected to replace Mark Loretta at second base, but I’m not sure he is up to the task. Loretta was one of the best hitting second basemen in the National League and a perfect hit-and-run candidate with great bat control. Bellhorn, on the other hand, is one of the best in the league at striking out and hit just .210 last year. On paper, this move looks like a major downgrade, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres look elsewhere for help at second base at some point this season.
Whether the new players improve the Padres’ offense remains to be seen, but the strength of this team is pitching. The Padres ranked 13th in ERA last season (4.13) and fifth in strikeouts (1133), and the team will only go as far as their pitching can take them in 2006.
At the top of the Padres’ rotation is Jake Peavy. Peavy is the team’s ace, one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he hasn’t even come near his ceiling yet. He has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in two straight seasons and had 216 strikeouts in 203 innings last year. Every time he takes the mound he goes deep into the game, and he is the team’s stopper every fifth game, virtually guaranteeing that prolonged losing streaks will be a rarity.
Thirteen-year veteran Woody Williams returns to the rotation this season, but Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence are both gone. Replacing them are rookie Brian Sikorski, second-year man Tim Stauffer and Chris Young, a power arm acquired from the Rangers for Eaton.
Sikorski and Stauffer will be starting on a consistent basis for the first time in their careers, so their productivity is far from certain. Young, on the other hand, could be due for breakout season. He is a 26-year-old, 6-10 righty that compiled a 12-7 record and posted a 4.26 ERA last season for the Rangers – good numbers considering he pitched in Ameriquest Field, a hitters park. By the end of the year, Young should be the Padres’ number-two starter thanks in part to pitcher-friendly PETCO.
The depth of the Padres’ pitching staff depends on the performances of Chan Ho Park and Dewon Brazelton. Both can spot start, provide long relief when needed, and might even find their way into the rotation due to injury or if one of the young starters can’t hack it.
Park has struggled the last three years with the Rangers, but he posted a sub-4.00 ERA in five of six seasons with the Dodgers. PETCO Park – like Dodgers Stadium – is a notoriously pitcher-friendly park. If the Padres are lucky, Park will use the spacious park to resurrect his career.
Brazelton was the third overall pick in the 2001 draft, and showed flashes of dominance for the Devil Rays, despite being demoted back to A-ball at one point. He had a horrendous season in 2005, posting a 1-8 record with a 7.61 ERA. If Brazelton can conquer his control issues and take advantage of PETCO’s dimensions, he could be an unexpected surprise for the Padres.
If the Padres’ starters can pitch into the seventh inning on a consistent basis, their bullpen will help them win a lot of close games. The back end of the Padres staff is among the beset in baseball thanks in large part to Scott Linebrink, one of the best setup men in the game. Last season he went 8-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 73 innings.
In the ninth, the Padres give the ball to Trevor “Hells Bells” Hoffman – one of the best closers in the game. Never an exceptionally hard-thrower, Hoffman has effectively used his changeup to stifle hitters for years, notching 436 career saves, including 43 in 2005.
The Padres starting rotation is solid, the bullpen is excellent and their offense should be improved this season. The ingredients are all in place for another postseason run. Unfortunately, the offseason upgrades might not matter because the health of Barry Bonds might be the determining factor of whether or not they defend their NL West crown.
Email Brian Polking at brian.polking@atomicsportsmedia.com