| Final Four Forecast | |
| By Stephen Stone | Published 03/28/2006 | March Madness | Unrated | |
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Stephen Stone
It is no secret that the 2006 NCAA Tournament has been compelling. This year, close games, wild finishes and unheralded underdogs have emerged from the greatest sporting event of the year at a premium.
Mid-majors have dominated March Madness thanks to remarkable Sweet 16 runs by the Bradley Braves and Wichita State Shockers of the Missouri Valley Conference. The last Cinderella dancing has become the biggest belle of the ball, however, as George Mason’s Patriots have marched all the way to the Final Four.
George Mason, a team considered by many experts to be the most undeserving team in the tournament two weeks ago, is now getting the last laugh. The Patriots have played in each round with passion and determination, winning hearts of basketball fans around the country, and proving true the theory that mid-major schools can beat up on the conference superpowers.
The Patriots’ journey as a no.11 seed has been nothing short of extraordinary. Upsetting two teams from top RPI conferences in the opening rounds (Michigan State and North Carolina) was a feat in itself. However, after stealing a glass slipper from Wichita State Friday, the Patriots displayed offensive brilliance on a 50% shooting effort against Connecticut, winning in overtime to clinch the biggest tournament upset since no. 8 Villanova defeated top-seeded Georgetown in 1985.
George Mason’s tourney run will be remembered as one of the greatest to the Final Four in history, however, the clock is about to strike midnight. Saturday’s Final Four matchup with Florida will probably be the end of the road. The Gators have guards that can shoot, forwards who drive the lane and an exceptional big man. Center Joakim Noah has become a force on both sides of the ball, and his ability to block shots is only one of the reasons the Gators are giving up a shade over 56 points per game in the tournament. Florida wins 76-63
While George Mason’s run deserves the largest consideration for most compelling run, one could make a case for LSU. The SEC-runner up and no. 4 seed in the Atlanta bracket was a popular sleeper pick for the Final Four in bracket contests. LSU center Glen “Big Baby” Davis is the only AP All-American still playing, and his massive frame clogging up the paint has been devastating for each of the Tigers’ matchups in the tournament. The dream became a reality for the Tigers after two bracket-buster victories over no. 1 Duke and no. 2 Texas en route to the Final Four.
UCLA and Florida are the last two teams who round out one of the most unpredictable Final Fours in tournament history. Each team left in the tournament has provided a contrast to the “guard game” that typically wins championships in March. This group of the Final Four let the lost art of the big man’s game catapult them to Indianapolis. Florida center Joakim Noah, Davis and Tyrus Thomas of LSU, George Mason’s Jai Lewis and UCLA’s Ryan Hollins have given their teams the low-post presence needed to withstand difficult runs to the Final Four. Each player has elevated their game during the tourney and provided a strong presence on both ends of the floor, scoring points, snagging rebounds, and swatting shots to carry their squads through each challenge.
The SEC is really getting the last laugh in this year’s tournament. This year’s tournament had a strong possibility of being composed of all top seeds, and the top three rated RPI conferences (ACC, Big East, and Big Ten) received 18 dance invitations. Going into college basketball’s final weekend, none of those conferences find a single team left. March Madness in 2006 isn’t about conference RPI’s and the superstar players that dominate the regular season. Instead, it’s highlighted by the aspects of the game that signify team ball: players serving their roles and executing them to perfection.
Saturday’s late game may prove to be downright defensive. LSU’s unmatched athleticism and shot-blocking ability will remain stingy, while Ben Howland’s UCLA Bruins own the same defensive tenacity that Howland taught so well at Pittsburgh. Look for Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas to shut down UCLA’s post players and force the Bruins’ talented backcourt of Jordan Farmer and Arron Afflalo to shoulder the load. LSU wins 63-59.
The title game will become a rematch of the SEC Championship, when LSU takes on Florida Monday night. The Gators won both regular season contests, and while the Tigers pose the better team defensively, Florida's guards should win it for them because both big men will be neutralized by Noah and forward Al Hortford. While most of the tournament has been about the play of the big boys, it comes down to guard play in the championship, where Florida has the edge. They should win 69-65.
The 2006 Final Four has been unpredictable, forcing millions of office workers to shred their brackets before the Final Four has even begun. That energy many have turned into frustration over a poorly picked bracket should be replaced by excitement over this next weekend, because miracle finishes and David vs. Goliath upsets have turned this year’s tournament into one of the best ever.
Madness is the main reason we love March. Madness is why we love college basketball. Stephen Stone is a contributing writer to Atomic Sports Media.com. He can be reached at stephen.stone@atomicsportsmedia.com. |
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