Playoff Fever
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/354/1/Playoff-Fever.html
Lev Elgudin
By Lev Elgudin
Published on 04/27/2006
Lev Elgudin thinks it's going to be Spurs-Pistons Part Deux in the NBA Finals, but first he offers up his opening round picks.
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Lev Elgudin thinks it's going to be Spurs-Pistons Part Deux in the NBA Finals, but first he offers up his opening round picks.
(Editor's Note: Lev Elgudin made these picks last week before the playoffs started, but to have a little fun we held off publishing them until the first round was well underway. The potential for embarassing predictions that could end up being totally ridiculous was just too good to pass up. Read on and see how Lev's doing so far.)
It was a marathon season for the NBA in 2005-2006, with many story lines, lots of stars and playoff drama all the way until the last few games of the season. We saw the Pistons take a shot at 70, Kobe drop 81, and LeBron, Wade, and Carmelo represent the 2003 draft class with their finest seasons yet. Now it’s playoff time, when the intensity gets ratcheted up. Here’s a glance at each series and a prediction from our Panel of Experts*.
*Panel of Experts = Lev Elgudin
Eastern Conference
(1)Detroit Pistons vs.
(8)Milwaukee Bucks
This is by far the biggest mismatch of the playoffs. Detroit has been playoff-ready since March, and the Bucks fell from a possible fifth seed to the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. Looking at their roster, they have few offensive threats other than Michael Redd, and are not strong defensively. Detroit, on the other hand, is arguably the most complete team entering the playoffs. Their bench is stronger than it was last year, and Flip Saunders has opened up the offense. The Pistons are playing for the championship this year, and a weaker, younger Milwaukee team is not going to stop them. I’d be surprised if the Bucks win one game.
Pistons in 4
(2)Miami Heat vs.
(7)Chicago Bulls
The scrappy Bulls scratched and clawed their way into the playoffs, and won seven of their last nine regular season games. They are tough defensively, and have clutch scorers in Heinrich and Gordon. The Bulls are a young team with a bright future, but even their youngsters have playoff experience from last season. Meanwhile, the Heat had a tumultuous season with a coaching change and a slew of injuries that will keep Alonzo Mourning and James Posey out until at least the second round. Still, the Heat have the Diesel, and his presence is something the undersized Bulls have no answer for. Shaq has always said that he can turn it on and off whenever he wants, so look for him to turn up his game and dominate down low against little resistance. The Bulls are scrappy and may steal a game at home, but don’t expect an upset.
Heat in 5
(3)New Jersey Nets vs.
(6)Indiana Pacers
This is an intriguing match up because the Nets have come back to earth after their 14-game win streak, and failed to reach 50 wins. The Pacers are on the upswing, going 6-5 in April after a 7-11 March. With all the injuries and more Ron Artest drama, coach Rick Carlisle has done a masterful job keeping this team together and competing with a relatively thin roster. When Jermaine O’Neal is on top of his game, he can be a force inside, and he’ll dominate Nenad Krstic down low. Don’t let the seeding blind you either, the Pacers are a battle-tested team that many pundits predicted to reach the conference finals. The Nets will prove to be too much with Kidd, Jefferson and Carter. The big three will step up and carry the Nets into the next round by themselves, but not without a fight from a tough Indiana team. Don’t be surprised if this series goes the distance, but the Nets should be able to put it away in six.
Nets in 6
(4)Cleveland Cavaliers vs.
(5)Washington Wizards
This is arguably the most intriguing first round series in the East, if not in the entire playoffs. There are many story lines here: LeBron’s finally in the playoffs, Larry Hughes is facing the team he jilted last summer, and Gilbert Arenas is still trying to shed his underrated label. The Wizards stumbled into the playoffs, at one point losing five straight before rebounding for three straight wins to close out the regular season. Still, the Wizards are capable of a major upset with Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. They held a 3-1 advantage head to head against the Cavs in the regular season, and have a lot of confidence in themselves, and their ability to win this series. They were in the same situation last year, and will use their experience against the young Cavs. This is King James’ first postseason appearance, and it’s interesting to see how the soon-to-be MVP will perform. Look for him to bust out, and carry the Cavaliers on his back to their first playoff win in God knows how long. Arenas and Jamison will be tough, but too much James means an early exit for the Wiz.
Cavaliers in 6
Western Conference
(1)San Antonio Spurs vs.
(8)Sacramento Kings
This is an interesting series because the Spurs are banged up and the Kings are on a roll. Sacramento’s season was saved back in January when they acquired Ron Artest for the equally disgruntled Peja Stojakovic. They have a 26-14 record since the trade, and come into the playoffs having gone 9-2 in their last 11. The Spurs meanwhile are still unsure of the health of Tim Duncan’s foot, but come into the series with the best record in the Western Conference. Last week Ron Artest predicted on national television that the Kings will win the title this year. Unfortunately for Ron, the Spurs will be the team moving into the next round. The Kings are simply overmatched; the Spurs were built for a repeat championship run, and Ron Artest can’t stop them.
Spurs in 6
(2)Phoenix Suns vs.
(7)Los Angeles Lakers
This may be the most high profile series in the first round. Kobe Bryant headlines this matchup as the whole world wonders how he will perform with the spotlight brighter and the season on the line. Individually, Kobe is better than any player on the Suns; unfortunately for him, basketball is a team sport. As a team, the Suns were far superior in the regular season, winning three out of four head-to-head showdowns, the lone loss coming without reigning MVP Steve Nash. The Lakers do have a chance to pull off an upset in this series, but it won’t come easy. Kobe must be at his best every minute of every game, and Lamar Odom must continue his recently inspired play. The Suns need to push the ball and actually play defense to limit Kobe’s options or an upset could be in the works. In the end, the Suns’ up-tempo style will be too much for the Lakers.
Suns in 6
(3)Denver Nuggets vs.
(6)Los Angeles Clippers
This series is an oddity under the current playoff rules, because although the Nuggets have the higher seed, the Clippers will have home-court advantage. While this may help the Clippers on paper, mentally it can become an advantage for the Nuggets, who enter the playoffs with a major chip on their shoulder. The health of Kenyon Martin can be a factor here, because defensively he can neutralize Elton Brand enough to give the Nuggets an advantage. If Martin isn’t 100%, Brand will have room to operate down low and the Clippers can command the pace of the game. To combat that, the Nuggets need to play up-tempo; they led the league in fast-break points during the regular season. This is an even series, but Carmelo Anthony will be the deciding factor. He has elevated his game as the season progressed, and has become a player the Nuggets can rely on in the clutch. Look for him to hit some big shots as Denver fights their way to a series win.
Nuggets in 7
(4)Dallas Mavericks vs.
(5)Memphis Grizzlies
Poor Memphis. They just can’t catch a break when it comes to the playoffs. The team has never won a playoff game, and gets shafted by drawing championship caliber Dallas in the first round. The Mavericks battled San Antonio all the way to the last weeks of the season for first place in the division, but came up short, ending up the four seed. Now they get a scrappy Grizzlies team with a new and improved version of Pau coming at them. However, Dallas is on a mission this year, and Dirk is playing the best basketball of his career. Ultimately, it will come down to who dictate the tempo. If Memphis can slow the game down and turn into a grind it out battle, they will have a chance. If Dallas can run and score at will, Memphis’ chances of winning go out the window. With the 0-8 franchise playoff record in the back of their minds, look for the Grizzlies to break out in a big way and pull off the upset.
Grizzlies in 7
Stay tuned for Lev Elgudin's picks for the second round and beyond.
You can offer him your suggestions by emailing him at lev.elgudin@atomicsportsmedia.com
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It was a marathon season for the NBA in 2005-2006, with many story lines, lots of stars and playoff drama all the way until the last few games of the season. We saw the Pistons take a shot at 70, Kobe drop 81, and LeBron, Wade, and Carmelo represent the 2003 draft class with their finest seasons yet. Now it’s playoff time, when the intensity gets ratcheted up. Here’s a glance at each series and a prediction from our Panel of Experts*.
*Panel of Experts = Lev Elgudin
Eastern Conference
(1)Detroit Pistons vs.
(8)Milwaukee Bucks
This is by far the biggest mismatch of the playoffs. Detroit has been playoff-ready since March, and the Bucks fell from a possible fifth seed to the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. Looking at their roster, they have few offensive threats other than Michael Redd, and are not strong defensively. Detroit, on the other hand, is arguably the most complete team entering the playoffs. Their bench is stronger than it was last year, and Flip Saunders has opened up the offense. The Pistons are playing for the championship this year, and a weaker, younger Milwaukee team is not going to stop them. I’d be surprised if the Bucks win one game.
Pistons in 4
(2)Miami Heat vs.
(7)Chicago Bulls
The scrappy Bulls scratched and clawed their way into the playoffs, and won seven of their last nine regular season games. They are tough defensively, and have clutch scorers in Heinrich and Gordon. The Bulls are a young team with a bright future, but even their youngsters have playoff experience from last season. Meanwhile, the Heat had a tumultuous season with a coaching change and a slew of injuries that will keep Alonzo Mourning and James Posey out until at least the second round. Still, the Heat have the Diesel, and his presence is something the undersized Bulls have no answer for. Shaq has always said that he can turn it on and off whenever he wants, so look for him to turn up his game and dominate down low against little resistance. The Bulls are scrappy and may steal a game at home, but don’t expect an upset.
Heat in 5
(3)New Jersey Nets vs.
(6)Indiana Pacers
This is an intriguing match up because the Nets have come back to earth after their 14-game win streak, and failed to reach 50 wins. The Pacers are on the upswing, going 6-5 in April after a 7-11 March. With all the injuries and more Ron Artest drama, coach Rick Carlisle has done a masterful job keeping this team together and competing with a relatively thin roster. When Jermaine O’Neal is on top of his game, he can be a force inside, and he’ll dominate Nenad Krstic down low. Don’t let the seeding blind you either, the Pacers are a battle-tested team that many pundits predicted to reach the conference finals. The Nets will prove to be too much with Kidd, Jefferson and Carter. The big three will step up and carry the Nets into the next round by themselves, but not without a fight from a tough Indiana team. Don’t be surprised if this series goes the distance, but the Nets should be able to put it away in six.
Nets in 6
(4)Cleveland Cavaliers vs.
(5)Washington Wizards
This is arguably the most intriguing first round series in the East, if not in the entire playoffs. There are many story lines here: LeBron’s finally in the playoffs, Larry Hughes is facing the team he jilted last summer, and Gilbert Arenas is still trying to shed his underrated label. The Wizards stumbled into the playoffs, at one point losing five straight before rebounding for three straight wins to close out the regular season. Still, the Wizards are capable of a major upset with Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. They held a 3-1 advantage head to head against the Cavs in the regular season, and have a lot of confidence in themselves, and their ability to win this series. They were in the same situation last year, and will use their experience against the young Cavs. This is King James’ first postseason appearance, and it’s interesting to see how the soon-to-be MVP will perform. Look for him to bust out, and carry the Cavaliers on his back to their first playoff win in God knows how long. Arenas and Jamison will be tough, but too much James means an early exit for the Wiz.
Cavaliers in 6
Western Conference
(1)San Antonio Spurs vs.
(8)Sacramento Kings
This is an interesting series because the Spurs are banged up and the Kings are on a roll. Sacramento’s season was saved back in January when they acquired Ron Artest for the equally disgruntled Peja Stojakovic. They have a 26-14 record since the trade, and come into the playoffs having gone 9-2 in their last 11. The Spurs meanwhile are still unsure of the health of Tim Duncan’s foot, but come into the series with the best record in the Western Conference. Last week Ron Artest predicted on national television that the Kings will win the title this year. Unfortunately for Ron, the Spurs will be the team moving into the next round. The Kings are simply overmatched; the Spurs were built for a repeat championship run, and Ron Artest can’t stop them.
Spurs in 6
(2)Phoenix Suns vs.
(7)Los Angeles Lakers
This may be the most high profile series in the first round. Kobe Bryant headlines this matchup as the whole world wonders how he will perform with the spotlight brighter and the season on the line. Individually, Kobe is better than any player on the Suns; unfortunately for him, basketball is a team sport. As a team, the Suns were far superior in the regular season, winning three out of four head-to-head showdowns, the lone loss coming without reigning MVP Steve Nash. The Lakers do have a chance to pull off an upset in this series, but it won’t come easy. Kobe must be at his best every minute of every game, and Lamar Odom must continue his recently inspired play. The Suns need to push the ball and actually play defense to limit Kobe’s options or an upset could be in the works. In the end, the Suns’ up-tempo style will be too much for the Lakers.
Suns in 6
(3)Denver Nuggets vs.
(6)Los Angeles Clippers
This series is an oddity under the current playoff rules, because although the Nuggets have the higher seed, the Clippers will have home-court advantage. While this may help the Clippers on paper, mentally it can become an advantage for the Nuggets, who enter the playoffs with a major chip on their shoulder. The health of Kenyon Martin can be a factor here, because defensively he can neutralize Elton Brand enough to give the Nuggets an advantage. If Martin isn’t 100%, Brand will have room to operate down low and the Clippers can command the pace of the game. To combat that, the Nuggets need to play up-tempo; they led the league in fast-break points during the regular season. This is an even series, but Carmelo Anthony will be the deciding factor. He has elevated his game as the season progressed, and has become a player the Nuggets can rely on in the clutch. Look for him to hit some big shots as Denver fights their way to a series win.
Nuggets in 7
(4)Dallas Mavericks vs.
(5)Memphis Grizzlies
Poor Memphis. They just can’t catch a break when it comes to the playoffs. The team has never won a playoff game, and gets shafted by drawing championship caliber Dallas in the first round. The Mavericks battled San Antonio all the way to the last weeks of the season for first place in the division, but came up short, ending up the four seed. Now they get a scrappy Grizzlies team with a new and improved version of Pau coming at them. However, Dallas is on a mission this year, and Dirk is playing the best basketball of his career. Ultimately, it will come down to who dictate the tempo. If Memphis can slow the game down and turn into a grind it out battle, they will have a chance. If Dallas can run and score at will, Memphis’ chances of winning go out the window. With the 0-8 franchise playoff record in the back of their minds, look for the Grizzlies to break out in a big way and pull off the upset.
Grizzlies in 7
Stay tuned for Lev Elgudin's picks for the second round and beyond.
You can offer him your suggestions by emailing him at lev.elgudin@atomicsportsmedia.com