JUNE 16, 2006

Yesterday Todd Hollandsworth hit a three-run home run for the Cleveland Indians at Yankee Stadium. This wasn’t just any home run though. He hit the ball into the middle of the black, some 450 feet away from home plate. My first reaction wasn’t disappointment in Yankee starter Mike Mussina, it was surprise at the fact that Hollandsworth was still bouncing around. After a 1996 National League Rookie of the Year campaign Hollandsworth never achieved the stardom predicted for him.

It brings to mind an interesting phenomenon in baseball, the legend of the one-hit wonder. One-hit wonders are nothing new in the sport, but for the sake of brevity I’ll stick to some farily recent ones that I’m sure all of us recall.

Does anybody remember Meatloaf look-alike and 1994 AL Rookie of the Year Bob Hamelin? He hit 24 home runs, a decent total for a rookie in those days, and it seemed that he, not Mike Sweeney, was the Royals first baseman of the future. Hamelin enjoyed a renaissance with the Tigers in ’97, bashing 18 home runs, but in no other season did he ever hit double digits and his career ended with a whimper as .219 with 7 homers for Milwaukee in 1998.

Justin Thompson was hailed as a future ace after he went 15-11 with a 3.02 for the Tigers in 1997 ( I know it’s only 15-11, but try to recall how bad the Tigers were for the past decade). Two years later he was out of the game and his failed comeback in 2005 saw him compile a 21.60 ERA in two games with Texas.

This year’s candidate to join the club? Say hello to Yankee pitcher Aaron Small. Last year’s Cinderella went 10-0 for the Yankees, the most successful debut in franchise history, and he did it as a 31-year-old journeyman. This year, things haven’t been quite so easy for the righthander. After coming off a DL stint to begin the season, Small had two tough outings against Boston and hasn’t looked like the same pitcher. He’s currently 0-3 with an 8.46 ERA.

An interesting parallel to the One-Hit Wonder Phenomenon is what I will call the Brady Anderson Corollary. This corollary includes the vast number of players (at various levels of stardom) that have one season that utterly exceeds their career averages in nearly every category. In the current era of performance-enhancing drugs, such anomalous seasons immediately become suspicious, but all players who have not tested positive get the benefit of the doubt in this column.

For recent initiates into the society of baseball fans, the Brady Anderson Corollary derives its name from the Baltimore Orioles outfielder and leadoff hitter who slugged 50 home runs in 1996. His previous career high was 21 and in a 14-year career he never again hit more than 24. Anderson is not the only player with a career-year of this nature. If he were, the corollary would not exist.

The other members of this fraternity of overachievement are players like Luis Gonzalez whose 57 HR in 2001 top his second-highest season total 26, and Giants pitcher Bill Swift, who won 21 games in 1993 but never topped 11 in any other year.

And let’s not forget Esteban Loiaza, he of the recent DUI and speeding violations, whose 21 wins for the White Sox in 2003 are a major anomaly considering he’s never won more than 12 games in any other season.

Loaiza may yet prove that his 20-win season wasn’t a fluke (although that is very much in doubt), but it’s readily apparent that Rick Helling never lived up to the expectations that came with his 20-7 season in 1998

There are countless others that fit into the Anderson Corollary, but I’ll stick to these few examples to give you the flavor of my theory. It is copyrighted by the way, so don’t even think about stealing my idea. I’m actually considering using it in other sports, Chad Pennington perhaps.

Anyway, my top current candidate for membership in the Corollary is Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts. Now, I’m a big fan of Roberts and I think he’s going to be a productive player who will hit around .300 and play a great second base for years to come. He’s a grinder and the type of player I have always enjoyed watching. But come on, were you paying attention last season? The guy had previously hit 12 career homers. He hit 18 last year, he’s got none in his first 46 games this year. His career slugging percentage was somewhere around .350, he slugged .515.

The fact is that Roberts is probably going to have a very productive career, but it’s also a fact that last season was a spike in the chart of his career stats.

Now on to a few notes from around the league…

•    The Cincinnati Reds are going to fade. Just like the Royals in 2003, the Reds simply don’t have the horses to hang tough in a competitive division. Bronson Arroyo may have finally found himself as a solid starter, but Arroyo, Harang, Milton, Claussen and Ramirez do not a playoff rotation make.
•    Bip Roberts turns 43 on October 27. Why do I mention this? I don’t know, I just felt like typing ‘Bip Roberts’.
•    Don Mattingly’s son Preston is going to forgo a baseball scholarship to Tennessee, having signed with the Dodgers. Mattingly was taken with the 31st pick in the draft and it’s widely known that many teams, like the Red Sox, were hoping to snatch him up later in the draft.
•    If you didn’t catch it, keep your eyes out for the footage of the Red Sox batboy tackling a fan who ran onto the field at the Metrodome Wednesday night. It was the best hit the Sox had the whole series.

Next time in the blog I give my picks for the National League All-Star team and revisit some of my preseason predictions.