Hanging Ten
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/498/1/Hanging-Ten.html
Lev Elgudin
By Lev Elgudin
Published on 07/6/2006
Now that everyone's had time to digest the mayhem that was last week's NBA Draft, questions about how the top picks will turn out abound. ASM's Lev Elgudin offers his best-case/worst-case for the 2006 Top Ten.
As the air clears from last Wednesday’s NBA draft, teams are moving forward equipped with what each hopes is another piece of the puzzle. But, as even NBA executives know, not every pick will pan out as predicted on draft night, and only a few of even the draft’s lottery picks will become the stars that so many expect. Let’s not forget, it wasn’t too long ago that Kwame Brown was the first pick in the draft. With that in mind, here’s a glance at what can be expected from the 2006 Top 10.
#1 Toronto - Andrea Bargnani C 7-1 248 Italy
Best Case: Dirk Nowitzki
Worst Case: Nikoloz Tskitishvili
There was little suspense with this pick for the Raptors, and Bargnani becomes the first European to be selected first overall. He’s got a lot to live up to as the top pick; the problem is he was drafted to play center, and he’s not a true center. He doesn’t really rebound, he’s not tough on the inside, but he has a great shooting touch. If he becomes a happy medium between Nowitzki and “Skita”, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo will be happy.
#2 Portland (from Chicago) – LaMarcus Aldridge PF 6-11 234 Texas
Best Case: Jermaine O’Neal
Worst Case: Drew Gooden
Not that Drew Gooden’s a bad player, but he has not become the type of player expected as a #4 overall selection. However, many have called Aldridge the safest pick in the draft, and if he puts all his skills together, his game could be similar to O’Neal’s. Aldridge needs to put on some pounds, and develop more with his back to the basket, but his polished turnaround jumper from 15 feet could make him a future star.
#3 Charlotte – Adam Morrison SF 6-8 198 Gonzaga
Best Case: Larry Bird
Worst Case: Trajan Langdon
With Jordan calling the shots in Charlotte, skeptics immediately call this pick into question, as Jordan’s talent evaluating skills are about as good as his retiring skills. However, the pick was made more by Bernie Bickerstaff, and he sees some Bird in Morrison. The former Gonzaga star is not nearly the complete player that Bird was, and will need to bulk up and start playing defense before he can become a good player in the NBA, but barring some physical breakdown, Morrison is too mentally tough fail like Langdon
#4 Chicago (from Portland) – Tyrus Thomas PF 6-8 217 LSU
Best Case: Elton Brand
Worst Case: Melvin Ely
Thomas is said to have the most upside in the draft, and all indications, including his play in the NCAA tournament, say that Thomas will be a beast. It’s a good pick for the Bulls, and he will have a chance to develop as part of a young team in Chicago with Gordon, Luol Deng and the newly acquired J.R. Smith. Plus, with veteran additions Ben Wallace and P.J. Brown joining him in the frontcourt he won’t be pushed around. The one warning sign is that the Bulls have taken young (Thomas is only 19) big men with lots of upside (see Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry) in the past, and neither has really lived up to expectations. The Bulls will need to do a better job developing him than the other two, who have been traded away in consecutive offseasons.
#5 Atlanta – Shelden Williams PF 6-9 258 Duke
Best Case: Kenyon Martin (pre-surgery)
Worst Case: Tony Battie
Finally the Hawks take someone who’s not a swingman, and Williams should fill a need here. But will the Duke curse prevail? Just when people thought Carlos Boozer was going break the string of Dukies who either stink (Laettner) or get hurt (Grant Hill), he gets injured and now appears on his way out of Utah. Williams brings toughness, defense and rebounding, but his scoring needs to improve. Williams has the size and strength to be a really dominant force inside a la K-Mart, and I believe he will succeed because really ugly people usually do well in sports.
#6 Portland (from Minnesota) – Brandon Roy SG 6-6 207 Washington
Best Case: Larry Hughes (04-05 with Wizards)
Worst Case: Larry Hughes (05-06 with Cavs)
Roy is probably the most complete player in the draft, and many (including this guy) are picking him to win top rookie honors. He plays both sides of the ball well, and is a good passer and finisher. However, he still needs to develop 3-point range and improve his mid-range game. He’s also lanky, and may have injury problems over his career. But Larry Hughes’ breakout year with the Wizards was under the radar but excellent, and 22, 6 and 5 consistently would make Roy a perennial All-Star.
#7 Minnesota (from Boston via Portland) – Randy Foye SG 6-3 212 Villanova
Best Case: Ben Gordon
Worst Case: Keyon Dooling
At this stage, Foye is a lot closer to Gordon than he is to Dooling. He can score, has NBA range, and can play the 1 or the 2. But therein lies the problem. He can play both, but he’s neither a true 1 nor a true 2. But in the era where positions are becoming less and less important, Foye should get the job done. He’s ready to contribute now, and I think he will challenge for the ROY award. Teaming up with Ricky D, Foye could bring the Wolves a lot of wins this year. As long KG brings all his clips, Uzis and grenades.
#8 Memphis – Rudy Gay SF 6-8 222 Connecticut
Best Case: Vince Carter
Worst Case: Andre Iguodala
Again, Iguodala is a nice player, but if Gay became like him, it would be considered a bust. Gay’s a beast athletically, has size and is deceptively strong. But two things scare me about him. Firstly, Michael Jordan really liked him, and that can’t be a good sign. More importantly, with all the supposed skills this kid has, he disappeared in the NCAA tournament. The Huskies were upset by George Mason, and Gay was rarely the guy who called for the ball at the end of games. He’s got a lot of maturing to do mentally, but if he ever puts it together he’ll be dunking on Zo in no time. I guess that’s not fair cause Zo’s old, but you know what I mean.
#9 Golden State – Patrick O’Bryant C 7-0 249 Bradley
Best Case: Marcus Camby
Worst Case: Samuel Dalembert.
This is an interesting pick, because not many people know much about this kid. He’s young, raw and a little skinny for his size, but putting on a few pounds should not be a problem. He’s a project, but he can develop into a real center if Golden State is patient. It’s tough to tell now, but in a few years he could be a force. But then again, he’ll probably end up like most lanky project centers. Ask the Sonics about that, or just see next.
#10 Seattle - Mouhamed Saer Sene C 7-0 232 Senegal
Best Case: Dikembe Mutombo
Worst Case: every other 7-foot project drafted out of Africa
For the third straight year, the Sonics chose a project center. So my question is when do those ever work out? Since Dikembe Mutombo, there’s at least one that goes in the first round, and we have yet to see any come to fruition. And since the first two Sonics’ picks haven’t worked out, it only makes sense to draft another one? At this point, Desagana Diop is a huge success, and if this kid gets somewhere around the 18 minutes 0 shot attempts average Diop night, it’ll be a relative success.
 |
Now that everyone's had time to digest the mayhem that was last week's NBA Draft, questions about how the top picks will turn out abound. ASM's Lev Elgudin offers his best-case/worst-case for the 2006 Top Ten.
|
As the air clears from last Wednesday’s NBA draft, teams are moving forward equipped with what each hopes is another piece of the puzzle. But, as even NBA executives know, not every pick will pan out as predicted on draft night, and only a few of even the draft’s lottery picks will become the stars that so many expect. Let’s not forget, it wasn’t too long ago that Kwame Brown was the first pick in the draft. With that in mind, here’s a glance at what can be expected from the 2006 Top 10.
#1 Toronto - Andrea Bargnani C 7-1 248 Italy
Best Case: Dirk Nowitzki
Worst Case: Nikoloz Tskitishvili
There was little suspense with this pick for the Raptors, and Bargnani becomes the first European to be selected first overall. He’s got a lot to live up to as the top pick; the problem is he was drafted to play center, and he’s not a true center. He doesn’t really rebound, he’s not tough on the inside, but he has a great shooting touch. If he becomes a happy medium between Nowitzki and “Skita”, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo will be happy.
#2 Portland (from Chicago) – LaMarcus Aldridge PF 6-11 234 Texas
Best Case: Jermaine O’Neal
Worst Case: Drew Gooden
Not that Drew Gooden’s a bad player, but he has not become the type of player expected as a #4 overall selection. However, many have called Aldridge the safest pick in the draft, and if he puts all his skills together, his game could be similar to O’Neal’s. Aldridge needs to put on some pounds, and develop more with his back to the basket, but his polished turnaround jumper from 15 feet could make him a future star.
#3 Charlotte – Adam Morrison SF 6-8 198 Gonzaga
Best Case: Larry Bird
Worst Case: Trajan Langdon
With Jordan calling the shots in Charlotte, skeptics immediately call this pick into question, as Jordan’s talent evaluating skills are about as good as his retiring skills. However, the pick was made more by Bernie Bickerstaff, and he sees some Bird in Morrison. The former Gonzaga star is not nearly the complete player that Bird was, and will need to bulk up and start playing defense before he can become a good player in the NBA, but barring some physical breakdown, Morrison is too mentally tough fail like Langdon
#4 Chicago (from Portland) – Tyrus Thomas PF 6-8 217 LSU
Best Case: Elton Brand
Worst Case: Melvin Ely
Thomas is said to have the most upside in the draft, and all indications, including his play in the NCAA tournament, say that Thomas will be a beast. It’s a good pick for the Bulls, and he will have a chance to develop as part of a young team in Chicago with Gordon, Luol Deng and the newly acquired J.R. Smith. Plus, with veteran additions Ben Wallace and P.J. Brown joining him in the frontcourt he won’t be pushed around. The one warning sign is that the Bulls have taken young (Thomas is only 19) big men with lots of upside (see Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry) in the past, and neither has really lived up to expectations. The Bulls will need to do a better job developing him than the other two, who have been traded away in consecutive offseasons.
#5 Atlanta – Shelden Williams PF 6-9 258 Duke
Best Case: Kenyon Martin (pre-surgery)
Worst Case: Tony Battie
Finally the Hawks take someone who’s not a swingman, and Williams should fill a need here. But will the Duke curse prevail? Just when people thought Carlos Boozer was going break the string of Dukies who either stink (Laettner) or get hurt (Grant Hill), he gets injured and now appears on his way out of Utah. Williams brings toughness, defense and rebounding, but his scoring needs to improve. Williams has the size and strength to be a really dominant force inside a la K-Mart, and I believe he will succeed because really ugly people usually do well in sports.
#6 Portland (from Minnesota) – Brandon Roy SG 6-6 207 Washington
Best Case: Larry Hughes (04-05 with Wizards)
Worst Case: Larry Hughes (05-06 with Cavs)
Roy is probably the most complete player in the draft, and many (including this guy) are picking him to win top rookie honors. He plays both sides of the ball well, and is a good passer and finisher. However, he still needs to develop 3-point range and improve his mid-range game. He’s also lanky, and may have injury problems over his career. But Larry Hughes’ breakout year with the Wizards was under the radar but excellent, and 22, 6 and 5 consistently would make Roy a perennial All-Star.
#7 Minnesota (from Boston via Portland) – Randy Foye SG 6-3 212 Villanova
Best Case: Ben Gordon
Worst Case: Keyon Dooling
At this stage, Foye is a lot closer to Gordon than he is to Dooling. He can score, has NBA range, and can play the 1 or the 2. But therein lies the problem. He can play both, but he’s neither a true 1 nor a true 2. But in the era where positions are becoming less and less important, Foye should get the job done. He’s ready to contribute now, and I think he will challenge for the ROY award. Teaming up with Ricky D, Foye could bring the Wolves a lot of wins this year. As long KG brings all his clips, Uzis and grenades.
#8 Memphis – Rudy Gay SF 6-8 222 Connecticut
Best Case: Vince Carter
Worst Case: Andre Iguodala
Again, Iguodala is a nice player, but if Gay became like him, it would be considered a bust. Gay’s a beast athletically, has size and is deceptively strong. But two things scare me about him. Firstly, Michael Jordan really liked him, and that can’t be a good sign. More importantly, with all the supposed skills this kid has, he disappeared in the NCAA tournament. The Huskies were upset by George Mason, and Gay was rarely the guy who called for the ball at the end of games. He’s got a lot of maturing to do mentally, but if he ever puts it together he’ll be dunking on Zo in no time. I guess that’s not fair cause Zo’s old, but you know what I mean.
#9 Golden State – Patrick O’Bryant C 7-0 249 Bradley
Best Case: Marcus Camby
Worst Case: Samuel Dalembert.
This is an interesting pick, because not many people know much about this kid. He’s young, raw and a little skinny for his size, but putting on a few pounds should not be a problem. He’s a project, but he can develop into a real center if Golden State is patient. It’s tough to tell now, but in a few years he could be a force. But then again, he’ll probably end up like most lanky project centers. Ask the Sonics about that, or just see next.
#10 Seattle - Mouhamed Saer Sene C 7-0 232 Senegal
Best Case: Dikembe Mutombo
Worst Case: every other 7-foot project drafted out of Africa
For the third straight year, the Sonics chose a project center. So my question is when do those ever work out? Since Dikembe Mutombo, there’s at least one that goes in the first round, and we have yet to see any come to fruition. And since the first two Sonics’ picks haven’t worked out, it only makes sense to draft another one? At this point, Desagana Diop is a huge success, and if this kid gets somewhere around the 18 minutes 0 shot attempts average Diop night, it’ll be a relative success.
Lev Elgudin was born in Russia and moved to the US in 1995. He attended
high school in the Cleveland area, and is an avid supporter of all
things Cleveland, especially LeBron James. You can reach him via email at lev.elgudin@atomicsportsmedia.com