Welcome back for Part 2 of the midseason blog.

First things first, let’s give out the 2006 MLB Midseason Awards

AL Most Valuable Player of the Half-Year
Everyone makes a huge deal about David Ortiz’s production and clutch hitting. I’m not trying to take anything away from Big Papi and his 31 home runs, but let’s not forget that he’s got a future Hall-of-Famer waiting on deck every time he steps up to the game, so it’s not like you can pitch around him. Rather than Pap my pick is Derek Jeter. Without Jeter this season the Yankees would be sunk. He’s the heart and soul of the team and despite moving around in the lineup because of all the injuries, Jeter is second in the league in hitting at .345 and has scored 58 runs. Matsui and Sheffield have been gone, Giambi missed a few games, A-Rod had a horrible June, Damon’s hurt, and Cano is on the DL, but the Yankees are still only 3 games out in the East. And it’s thanks to Jeter.
Honorable Mention: Ortiz, Giambi, Travis Hafner (CLE)

AL Cy Young of the Half-Year
There’s no question it’s Francisco Liriano. He may be a rookie, but he's also 10-1 with a 1.83 ERA, and he didn’t even become a starter until mid-May. End of discussion.
Honorable Mention: Roy Halladay (TOR), Johan Santana (MIN), Kenny Rogers (DET)

AL Rookie of the Half-Year
I suspect that it’s going to come down to the wire, but for the first half it was Liriano narrowly edging Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon who has been equally amazing in a nearly unhittable first half.
Honorable Mention: Papelbon, Justin Verlander (DET)

AL Manager of the Half-Year
In any other season it would be Joe Torre, for keeping the Yankees in the race despite losing arguably two of the best hitters in the American League and having a mess of a pitching staff. It’s 2006 though, and the job that Jim Leyland has done with the Tigers cannot be overlooked. He’s taken a 72-win team, changed the clubhouse culture, and got them on pace to win more than 100 games. Pretty amazing.
Honorable Mention: Torre

NL Most Valuable Player of the Half-Year
As much as I would like to recognize the Mets David Wright’s breakout season here, it’s impossible to give this award to anyone but Albert Pujols. He’s having an astonishing season and he’s doing it while leading a first-place team. Those are pretty much the requirements for MVP.
Honorable Mention: Wright, Alfonso Soriano (WAS), Nomar Garciaparra (LAD)

NL Cy Young of the Half-Year
Brandon Webb is having a great season for the Diamonbacks, Brad Penny an even better one for the Dodgers. As of this moment the two NL West starters are my favorites for the award, and I’m picking Penny since I think the Dodgers will give him the run support he needs to make a run at 20 wins and I’m not so sure that Webb’s recent struggles (1-3 after an 8-0 start) are something to be ignored.
Honorable Mention: Webb, Chris Capuano (MIL), Tom Glavine (NYM)

NL Rookie of the Half-Year
There aren’t a ton of candidates here, but I’m going to pick Florida’s Dan Uggla, a guy who was supposed to be a placeholder at second base, but has turned in an outstanding season to this point, bating .307 with 13 homers and 51 RBI.
Honorable Mention: Josh Johnson (FLA), Ryan Zimmerman (WAS)

NL Manager of the Half-Year
Grady Little has done an outstanding job integrating his young players in LA, and Cincinnati’s Jerry Narron has taken a team picked to finish well out of contention into first place for a stretch and still has them in contention. My pick though is Florida’s rookie skipper Joe Girardi. The Marlins were supposed to have no shot to contend this year and they don’t. But Girardi has made the club respectable, gained the respect of his players, and actually has the Marlins within two games of second place in the NL East.
Honorable Mention: Little, Narron

A few more notes from the first half:
Cleveland’s Travis Hafner had five first-half grand slams. The record for a season is six.Joe Mauer (.378) is challenging Mike Piazza’s record for the highest batting average by a catcher (.362), and trying to become just the third backstop ever to lead his league in hitting.Carl Pavano still has yet to pitch for the Yankees this season. That means that for the first 2 years and $20 million of his contract the Yankees have gotten 17 starts and 4 wins. Great investment.
Now, before I get into my midseason reports on the contenders, I’d like to add a preface. Surely, some of my readers will take offense to the omission of certain teams from the listing. Where are the Twins? They went on a ridiculous stretch of 20 wins in 22 games from June 11, but they barely gained any ground on the Tigers and White Sox, who were also playing great baseball. They’re still 11 games out and not a contender yet in my book.

As for the NL Central, I’m sure some will take offense that I’ve included the Astros even though the Brewers and Reds are both ahead of Houston in the standings. Let me make this simple, neither Milwaukee nor Cincinnati has a shot at the playoffs, the Astros do. End of story.

And with that, let’s get to the reports.

Boston Red Sox (53-33, 1st in AL East)
The Sox have always been able to hit, but their defensive turnaround has been astounding. The young pitching has been amazing, starting with Jonathan Papelbon and Jon Lester who have been outstanding, but also including Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen who have fortified a shaky middle relief corps. Coco Crisp, Mark Loretta, and Mike Lowell have all played outstanding defense and turned the Sox into the best defensive team in baseball (MLB-low 30 errors, .991 fielding percentage leads baseball).

2nd half questions: Can Papelbon remain invincible? Do the Sox have enough starting pitching (Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Lester, and slop)? Will they make a move at the deadline to add to the rotation or bullpen?

Prediction: Expect the Red Sox to actively hunt deals to bolster their starting pitching, but they won’t give up their blue-chip youngsters to get it. Same goes for bullpen help, but Theo might be confident with the youngsters. That being said, the Red Sox hopes may come down to Manny Delcarmen. Mike Timlin is solid in the 8th and I don’t think that Papelbon’s first-half was a fluke, so if Delcarmen can be the bridge from a shaky starting staff to those two the Red Sox should be able to hold off their AL East foes.

New York Yankees (50-36, 2nd in AL East)
Coming into the season, if I had told you that the Yankees would be 50-36 and 3 games behind the Red Sox at the All-Star break you would have taken it in stride, since they were in about the same spot last season. Now imagine I had told you the Yankees would be in that position despite getting only 62 games played by Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield due to severe wrist injuries, a 5.13 ERA from Randy Johnson, a season-ending arm injury to Tanyon Sturtze, not one inning from Carl Pavano, and should I need to go on, a recent DL stint for Robinson Cano and minor injury to Johnny Damon. Add to that the fact that Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small both clearly lost their mojo from last season and the Yankees season should be in the toilet. And yet it’s not. Pretty surprising.

2nd half questions: Can replacements Melky Cabrera, Andy Phillips, and Bernie Wiliams do enough to keep the team afloat until the stars return? Do the Yankees have any chips left in the system to dangle in a deadline deal?

Prediction: Unless the Yankees get are able to land a solid starter and another arm for the bullpen they’re going to struggle to keep up with the Red Sox, and even the Blue Jays. If the Yankees are within 5 games and get Matsui and Sheffield back by early September expect the division race to go down the wire. If not, this could be the first postseason not featuring games in the Bronx since 1993.

Toronto Blue Jays (49-39, 3rd in AL East)
An offseason spending spree that landed free agents B.J. Ryan and A.J. Burnett was cautiously applauded by many (including this writer) who were unsure if two pitchers with very short track records of success would make the A.L. East a three-team race. Burnett has given the Blue Jays next to nothing (1-3, 4.58 in 6 starts) thanks to injury, but Ryan (24 saves, 0.84 ERA) has been well worth his 5-year $55 million contract, Bengie Molina has stabilized the catcher position, and trade imports Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay have provided lineup protection for Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. The offseason splurge has paid off, as the Blue Jays are finally in the conversation when it comes to the AL East race.

2nd half questions: Will the Jays get anything from Burnett or is he this year’s version of former Marlin teammate Carl Pavano, who signed a monster deal and has given the Yankees nothing in return? Is Alex Rios the real deal and can he turn his All-Star first half into a breakout season?

Prediction: Halladay and Ryan seem to be the only two sure things on the pitching staff, but the offense can certainly mash with the best team batting average (.293) and third highest home run total (121) in the majors. Unless Burnett, Ted Lilly, and Gustavo Chacin have strong finishes and Ryan gets some help in the pen I think Toronto will fade. They’ve made great progress from a year ago, but 2006 won’t be the year they get over the hump and into the playoffs.

Detroit Tigers (59-29, 1st in AL Central)
Wow. That’s the only word that really sums up my reaction to the Tigers performance in the first half. I, like many others, expected them to be a much-improved team (certainly a far cry from the team that lost 119 games in 2003. They crept toward respectability with 72 wins last season and the 2006 campaign has been an absolute revelation. Jim Leyland is doing the best managing job of his career (he’s a shoo-in for AL Manager of the Year), and has the Tigers believing that they’re a World Series contender. It helps that Kenny Rogers has discovered the Fountain of Youth at 41 (11-3, 3.85), Justin Verlander looks like an ace (10-4, 3.01), and Joel Zumaya has been nearly unhittable out of the bullpen throwing 100 MPH gas (54 K in just 41.3 innings).

2nd half questions: Can the Tigers starters (Rogers, Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Nate Robertson) keep up the amazing pace they have set for the club? Can the veteran hitters (Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco) stay healthy for the entire year?

Prediction: It seems that the All-Star break is the assigned time for the talking heads on television to announce that they finally believe in the Tigers (or insist that they’ve believed in them all along). I believe in the Tigers too. They are eerily reminiscent of the Royals club that started hot and then fell apart a few years ago, but I don’t think they hav the same fate. I believe that they will make an admirable run at the AL Central crown and be in the race down the stretch. However, I think they will ultimately fade and could miss the playoffs altogether. Before you blast me on this one, allow me to make three points: 1. Ordonez, Guillen, Polanco, and Rodriguez are all potential injury risks and the Tigers don’t have the lineup firepower to replace any of them. 2. The Tigers starters (except Rogers) have never been involved in a pennant race and all are on pace for career years. If any falter down the stretch it’s still unclear if the Tigers will be able to maintain their pace. 3. Verlander is on pace to pitch more than 100 innings more than his previous career high. If you don’t think that’s going to affect him down the stretch, go back and take a look at what’s happened to wunderkind starting pitchers who so drastically increased their workload in the past few years. Regardless of what happens, Leyland has done an outstanding job and the Tigers are poised to contend for years to come.

Chicago White Sox (57-31, 2nd in AL Central)
Jim Thome has been everything the White Sox hoped for, and more. His 30 homers are second in the league and he provides some serious left-handed power to what was a heavily righty lineup for last year’s World Series champs. Jose Contreras has turned into the ace the Yankees once expected him to be (he hasn’t lost since August 15 last year), and closer Bobby Jenks has proven that last season wasn’t a fluke (26 saves, 49 K in 41.1 innings). The White Sox team batting average is second in baseball at .288, they’ve bashed the most home runs of any team in the game (133), and Jermaine Dye is having a career year (.318, 25, 68). At 57-31, the ChiSox have the second-best record in baseball. Unfortunately for them, the team with the best record is in their own division.

2nd half questions: Can Thome, Konerko, and Dye all hit 40 homers? Will the rest of the starters behind Contreras round into form? Will it even matter if they don’t?

Prediction: The White Sox just have too much firepower on offense and in the rotation to stay in second place for very long. The 4.44 team ERA is a concern (it’s higher than last season thanks to very high ERA’s on the starting staff), but it’s still the 11th best in baseball. I picked the Sox to repeat as champs before the season started and I’m sticking with them. They have a juggernaut offense, a potentially dominant starting rotation that will prevent losing streaks, a sound bullpen, and an extremely versatile bench that will be huge down the stretch and during the postseason.

Oakland Athletics (45-43, T-1st in AL West)
Coming into the season the A’s had the Cy Young favorite in Rich Harden, a potential stud shortstop in Bobby Crosby, and their biggest question mark was whether or not Frank Thomas had anything left in the tank. Well, the Big Hurt has been the only bright spot of those three with 19 home runs. Crosby is hitting .238 and while Harden’s 3.68 ERA and undefeated record are fine, the fact that he has only pitched in six games thanks to a shoulder injury is not. And yet, despite having two of their young stars hurt and underperforming, the A’s are still tied for the lead in the AL West and the Barry Zito auction has been put on hold, at least for the time being. I’m really not sure how they’re doing it though. The pitching has been solid, but not spectacular, and the offense has been an abomination. Seriously, they’ve been worse than the Royals and Pirates. The Athletics have the lowest batting average and slugging percentage of any team in the majors, and their on-base percentage ranks 26th. Not exactly the resume of a title contender. And who knows where they’d be without 2nd-year man Nick Swisher, whose 20 homers and 52 RBI are a main reason the club is still afloat.

2nd half questions: Will Billy Beane trade Zito or keep him and lose him to free agency this winter? Will the A’s (and Eric Chavez in particular) continue their tradition of catching fire after the All-Star break? What kind of magic will Beane work at the deadline to give his team enough to emerge from a tight AL West race?

Prediction: Beane is going to do something at the deadline. Probably not trade Zito, but something. And the chances are that it will help the club. Couple that with the fact that it’s almost impossible for the offense to be as bad as it was in the first half and the A’s should have a fighting chance. If they get Harden back and he pitches like the ace he is down the stretch, their the favorite in the division. There are a lot of ifs, but I’m still picking the A’s to outlast Texas…and then promptly get swept out of the Division Series.

Texas Rangers (45-43, T-1st in AL West)
The Rangers have been hanging tough in their division, and they’ve been doing it despite low output from Mark Teixeira. Thanks to the exceptional play of Michael Young and a great season from Gary Matthews Jr. the Rangers offense has hung tough and the pitching, though not spectacular, has kept the team in games. Hank Blalock has also had a nice season, batting .287 with 12 HR and 60 RBI. There is a problem though, when your leadoff hitter (Young) is second on the team in RBI. And free agent acquisition Kevin Millwood has been adequate, but a far cry from the ace the Rangers expected (8-5, 4.83). Closer Francisco Cordero has suffered a major regression, going 6-for-14 in save opportunities before losing his job to Akinori Otsuka. To add insult to injury Chris Young, who the Rangers traded away for Adam Eaton (injured) and Otsuka, has become a key cog in the San Diego rotation.

2nd half questions: Will Teixeira return to form in the second half? Can Millwood and the pitching staff go from average to playoff-worthy over the next 3 months?

Prediction: The Rangers will not be able to hang with the A’s and Angels in the AL West, ultimately battling with Seattle to stay out of the division basement. The offense is strong, and I’ll bet that Teixeira gets back on track, but the starting rotation and bullpen are not those of a division winner. For years the knock against Texas has been a lack of pitching and it seems like that’s the case yet again.

Anaheim Angels (43-45, 3rd in AL West)
The Angels are tough to figure out. They seemed poised for a monster year, having what seemed like a solid rotation, deep bullpen, and balanced lineup. The wheels came off early in the year and the team then righted itself, but their inconsistency is staggering. They’ve gotten almost nothing from Bartolo Colon and the free agent they brought in, Jeff Weaver, was shipped back to the NL (St. Louis) after 16 mostly horrible outings and a 6.29 ERA. On the bright side, Weaver’s brother Jered has been a whirlwind, winning his first six big league starts and posting a 1.12 ERA with only 23 hits given up in 40.1 innings. In an explicable move, the team sent him down after his first four starts because there wasn’t enough room for him (and his 1.37 ERA at the time) in the rotation. Absolutely mystifying. The rest of the staff has had its moments, with John Lackey (7-5, 2.88) and Ervin Santana (10-3, 3.96) posting solid numbers. The offense is desperately in need of help though, since Garret Anderson appears to have gotten old in a hurry and the youngsters in the system (Kendry Morales, Howie Kendrick) aren’t yet ready to contribute to a contender. Vlad Guerrero is a force (.299, 18, 62), but without protection he’s going to get the Bonds treatment when the stretch run comes along.

2nd half question: Can GM Bill Stoneman get a big bat in the trade market (did anyone say Soriano)? What will the team get from Colon in the second half? Can anyone beat Jered Weaver?

Prediction: Jered Weaver looks like the real deal and until he loses I’m not betting against him to continue his hot start. If the Angels can get a bat they’re my favorites in the AL West. My biggest concern right now is that they’re relying on two pitchers (Santana and Weaver) who are in their second and first years in the bigs to carry them down the stretch. If Colon gets back to his ace form it would be a huge boost.

New York Mets (53-36, 1st in NL East)
I thought the Mets would be much better this year. I didn’t think they’d be this good. They raced out to the NL’s best record in April, and they haven’t looked back since. They’ve totally buried their competition in the NL East, with a 12-game lead over 2nd place Philadelphia. David Wright and Jose Reyes have become bona-fide stars, Billy Wagner has stabilized a shaky bullpen, and Carlos Delgado has thrived while taking a lot of pressure off of Carlos Beltran who’s having a career year. The starting pitching could use some help with Pedro hurting and an aging corps, but expect Omar Minaya to actively pursue pitching at the deadline.

2nd half questions: After losing five of six to the Red Sox and Yankees at the end of interleague play, can the Mets compete with the AL? Will the hurting pitching staff hold up down the stretch? How old is Julio Franco (seriously)?

Prediction: The Mets are not going to fall apart down the stretch. They might not maintain the blistering pace they set in the first half since their rotation is kind of banged up, but they’ll still win the East going away. Expect Minaya to get an arm for the rotation by the deadline, possibly at the expense of top outfield prospect Lastings Milledge. The Mets are my World Series pick, but I have a real hard time believing they’ll take down the AL rep.

St. Louis Cardinals (48-39, 1st in NL Central)
The Cards hung tough when Albert Pujols missed three weeks with an oblique muscle injury, but Prince Albert is back and the Cards offense should return to juggernaut form in the second half. Scott Rolen is making a case for being the best third baseman in baseball again with a .331 average to go with 14 homers and 57 RBI, and David Eckstein has been engine that makes the team from the leadoff spot. The concern is that other than Chris Carpenter the pitching has been very shaky. Mark Mulder has been one of the few pitchers that has regressed after switching from the AL to the NL. Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan, two keys to the Cards’ 2004 World Series run, have ERA’s over 5.50, and the struggling Sidney Ponson was just traded to the Angels for Jeff Weaver. Even closer Jason Isringhausen has struggled, blowing 7 saves in the first half and getting saddled with 4 losses.

2nd half questions: Will the pitching pick it up? Can Weaver return to his NL form? Can Albert hit 60 even though he missed 3 weeks?

Prediction: The Cards should hold off the Astros in the Central, but beyond that it’s anyone’s guess. If the starting rotation pitches to its potential and Weaver returns to the form he showed with the Dodgers last season (14 wins), the Cards could make a push for the World Series again. My guess is that St. Louis wins the Central by barely edging the Astros at the end of the season.

Houston Astros (43-46, 4th in NL Central)
I know that they’re in fourth place, but the Astros are the only team in the Central with a chance to overtake St. Louis. Don’t forget that Roger Clemens has been excellent since rejoining the team in June and he would be 3-0 were it not for spotty run support. The Astros are quickly gaining the reputation as the Oakland of the National League: slow starters who come on strong down the stretch. Since 2004 run support has been Houston’s problem and this year has been more of the same. Ace Roy Oswalt is 6-6 despite a 3.15 ERA. The problem is that nobody outside of Lance Berkman is having a very good year (maybe Mike Lamb), and the team is hard-pressed to manufacture runs if they don’t have Berkman coming to bat.

2nd half questions: Will Phil Garner find moroe playing time for Chris Burke? Can Andy Pettitte (5.28 ERA) turn things around. Will Clemens ever get any run support in Houston?

Prediction: Expect Houston to make a serious run at the Cardinals. They’re 6 games back entering the second half, but a well-pitched series from Oswalt, Pettitte, and Clemens and the Astros can cut that number in half. The team needs to play Chris Burke more since he’s one of the few players on the team hitting the ball v ery well and he’s slowly building a reputation as a great clutch hitter (remember his game-winning dinger against Atlanta in the 18-inning NLDS clincher last year?). If the offense can pick it up, and the addition of Aubrey Huff in a deal with Tampa Bay should add some left-handed pop to the lineup, there’s no reason the Astros staff can’t carry them to the postseason. That, and Brad Lidge needs to get back to his pre-Pujols Bomb form (when he didn’t have a 5.79 ERA).
 
San Diego Padres (48-40, 1st in NL West)
Los Angeles Dodgers (46-42, 2nd in NL West)
Colorado Rockies (44-43, 3rd in NL West)
San Francisco Giants (45-44, 4th in NL West)
Arizona Diamondbacks (43-45, 5th in NL West)
The National League’s West division is so wide-open I’ve decided to tackle the entire division all at once. The Padres have looked pretty good, but they don’t have much of an offense and Jake Peavy’s shoulder has been acting up. The Dodgers have probably been the division’s best all-around team, and Brad Penny has been great, but they’re relying on a lot of youngsters (Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, Andre Ethier), and a few players (Nomar Garciaparra, J.D. Drew) who can’t walk past a doctor’s office without coming down with an injury. The Rockies have finally figured out that only sinkerball pitchers will ever be successful at Coors field, and it’s worked out for them. They’ve allowed the fewest home runs in baseball, and the starters have been good enough to keep the team in ballgames. The offense has been giving them plenty of support (Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, and Brad Hawpe are all having excellent seasons), and lefty closer Brian Fuentes has been extremely tough at the end of games. The Giants are an old team, but they’ve managed to stay in the race to this point thanks to a very good season from Jason Schmidt (only 6 wins but a 2.78 ERA), and clutch hitting from some of the veterans like Moises Alou and Omar Vizquel. The Diamondbacks Brandon Webb is having a great year (9-3, 2.65), and the Arizona offense has shown flashes, but hasn’t been as consistent as the club would like.

2nd half questions: Is Barry Bonds going to get the Giants into the postseason? Is Peavy going to be able to carry the load for the Pads in the second half? Are the Rockies for real? Can Nomar stay healthy and lead LA into the playoffs?

Prediction: Any one of these teams could win the division, literally. I’m going to pick the Dodgers because I think they’ve got the best balance of pitching and offense, but if Barry Bonds starts swinging the bat well and another Giants starter can be the Sundance Kid to Jason Schmidt’s Butch Cassidy they might be the favorites. I think that the Dodgers youth holds up, Nomar stays healthy, and Penny continues his career year to take the division. Expect all five teams to make this a race down to the wire.


That’s it for this edition of the blog, thanks for making it all the way to the end. Check back next time for my Trade Deadline Special.

Disagree with Steve’s predictions? Got a trade you think could happen? Email Steve at steve.schaefer@atomicsportsmedia.com.