It’s been difficult to come up with a formula for Super Bowl success in the salary cap era. Teams have won with defense, teams have won with offense. Teams have won with coaches older than 70 and younger than 40. Teams led by MVPs and teams led by a less-familiar class have won. Teams that led the league in rushing, teams that seemed to be allergic to the ground game, teams with loud personalities, teams with poker-faced rosters, teams in big markets, a team in Tampa Bay, all have won the Super Bowl in the past 10 years.

But there is one growing trend among Super Bowl winners, and it’s been the same since John Elway retired after snagging his second Lombardi Trophy. The starting quarterback in the Super Bowl making less money has won it every time since 1998.

Mathematical proof that Peyton Manning will never win a Super Bowl.

Recently, young quarterbacks have had great success in the big game, as Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady have won four out of the past five. But the fifth was won by journeyman Brad Johnson, who, along with Trent Dilfer, prove you can win it all past your prime. Two things to consider: young QBs who have won the Super Bowl were excellent right out of the gate, so this doesn’t bode well for the likes of Alex Smith or J.P. Losman. Also, the veteran QB winners were relatively new additions, hurting the chances of guys like Trent Green. Dilfer, Johnson and Kurt Warner won the Super Bowl in their first year with their franchise.  All three of those QBs started the year off holding a clipboard, as did Brady before the first of his three titles. So perhaps if Manning or Donovan McNabb go down with season-ending injuries, their fans should be optimistic as opposed to demoralized.

Another thing recent Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks have in common is the ability to avoid mistakes. Johnson, Brady and Dilfer certainly aren’t gunslingers. And even Warner wasn’t a turnover machine.

So looking at these trends we can see which teams to avoid betting on and which ones bandwagonners should be fitted for jerseys.

Manning, as we said, tops the list of QBs to avoid in the playoffs. Michael Vick’s combination of an extremely expensive contract and poor decision-making makes him an unlikely candidate as well. However, with that defense, Matt Schaub would be a great choice for Super Bowl MVP. Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, and Matt Hasslebeck also have slim chances.

Remember how backup QBs have had success in the past? Here are some to look for.

- Jason Cambell (Washington). He’s got a great team around him, a lot of ability and a big frame. The lack of a scouting report helps his cause.

- Brian Griese (Chicago). Griese is the type of Brad Johnson-esque, safe QB who can lead a team with a great D and commitment to the running game all the way to the big game. Imagine if Chicago had a competent QB last year.

- Matt Leinart (Arizona). Way outside chance here, especially if his long hold out keeps him far behind. But you can’t argue with the weapons around him and a very underrated defense.

- Jay Cutler (Denver). He could very easily have a Brady-like run if Jake Plummer is nice enough to miss an extended amount of time. Denver could possibly have the best team in the league, minus their QB. As talented as Plummer is, his ability to make big plays (for the other team) come playoff time just murders the Broncos. Cutler could put an end to that.

But what about the quarterbacks in new places? I’m glad you asked.