Daunte Culpepper’s bloated contract coupled with an extremely high interception rate and offseason surgery kills his chances. Aaron Brooks and Billy Volek are eliminated simply for playing for terrible teams in Oakland and Tennessee, respectively. Drew Brees and his $10 million this season eliminate the Saints before they try. Chris Simms has a chance in Tampa Bay; he’s a young QB who had a solid late push last year to build on and a delightfully small contract.

It would take a Kurt Warner-type year, but John Kitna could have a 1999 Rams type run. Keep in mind no one thought that team was any good either until it won a few playoff games. But with the same offensive coordinator and similar talent (notice I said talent not production) at the skill positions, you never know.

Phillip Rivers has a contract that’s pushing it, but he does have a great defense behind him and the best running back/tight end in the game in front of him. If Rivers manages the games and tries not to do too much, he’s a prime candidate for a championship victory.

Steve McNair is in a good situation. He’s a relatively cheap veteran with a great defense on his side. The Ravens are my pick from the AFC.

Then there is the jewel of the league, none other than Brad Johnson. Not only has he a Super Bowl ring in his jewelry box and finished last season on a great run after the injury to Pep, but he his salary for 06-07 is $1.5 million: the cheapest contract of any starting QB. Minnesota has passed those savings on to upgrading their offensive line, running game, and defense.

Based on the QB formula, their solid play to end last year and the key additions of players like Steve Hutchinson and Chester Taylor, the Minnesota Vikings are my pick to win the Super Bowl over the Baltimore Ravens. Just remember… you heard it here first.