I’m very fond of my grandfather. And my grandfather is very fond of continually making the same point whenever the topic of conversation turns to baseball; particularly in reference to the gratuitous salaries players make these days. The point is a simple one, but ironclad in its simplicity: Fifty years ago, not only would mid-level players not be getting rich, half the current players wouldn’t even have a spot in the major leagues.

In 1956 there were only 16 teams; divisional play and the wild card were figments of the imagination. Compare that with 30 teams today and there are more than 350 ballplayers on major league rosters every year that would not have made the cut in the pre-expansion era. Now sure, inflation and the eruption of the American economy have certainly had a hand in this trend, but the point of the argument is unshakable. There was a time when a 28-year-old pitcher with a 4.65 ERA and a 55-44 career record would be working two offseason jobs (if he wasn’t out of baseball altogether) just to get by. And now, Gil Meche is getting paid $55 million over 5 years by the worst team in baseball, the Royals.

The expansion point aside, the trend of players signing contracts longer than five years (which didn’t become common until the early part of this decade) has severely limited the talent that becomes available each offseason. Bear in mind if players that signed long-term deals in 2000 and 2001 had signed three, four or five year contracts instead of eight to 10-year deals, then guys like A-Rod, Jeter, Manny, and Griffey would all have been on the market during the past few offseasons. Just because those stars are locked into long-term deals does not mean that the money flow dries up, it merely gets allocated to lesser talents, and that phenomenon has reached a fever pitch this offseason.

Here’s a handy guide that will help you differentiate between the ridiculous contracts that will pay dividends in a few months and the ridiculous contracts that will have you tearing your hair out and feeling like you’re at Shea booing Bobby Bo in 1992.

The reader-friendly format you’ll notice below was designed to give you a quick, handy reference so you know exactly what to expect from some of the players that signed big deals this offseason.

The Carl Pavano division (Tier 1)
For players who parlayed one (if that) good year into a monster contract that is going to look horrible very, very soon

Gary Matthews Jr. signs a 5-year, $50 million contract with the Angels
    Gary Matthews parlayed arguably the best catch of the young decade into a gigantic contract that the Angels will be regretting as early as next week. To offer some perspective, 13 years ago Barry Bonds left the Pirates for the Giants to the tune of a 6-year $43.75 million contract. Now sure, the financial structure of the sport is totally different today than it was then, but at the time Bonds was a 2-time MVP Award winner and an established All-Star. Bear in mind that Bonds was also a 28-year-old just entering the prime of what has been a Hall of Fame career. (And I say this without equivocation because even if you believe the steroid rumors about Bonds, which I do, you can’t argue with the fact that his was a Hall of Fame career prior to his use of performance-enhancing drugs. For the sake of this article I’m leaving the steroid issue alone.) By comparison, Matthews is 32 and has bounced around between six teams. Players worth $10 million dollars per year usually don’t take a decade to figure out how to use their talent.

Other notables:
Juan Pierre signs a 5-year $44 million contract with the Dodgers
    Paying a leadoff hitter with a .330 OBP $9 million a year is never a good idea.