The Carl Pavano division (Tier 2)
For pitchers that score monster contracts with average (at best career stats)

Ted Lilly signs a 4-year $40 million contract with Cubs
    The parallels between Lilly and Pavano range from coincidental to eerie. Both pitchers were traded during the 2002 season and they were teammates with the Montreal Expos in 1999. From there things get a little spooky. Lilly’s current career mark is 59-58; Pavano was 57-58 when he signed with the Yankees after the 2004 season. Lilly has a 4.60 career ERA; Pavano’s was 4.53 before signing with the Yankees. This is not to say that Lilly will be the spectacular flameout that Pavano has been in his two seasons with the Yankees (17 starts, 100 innings, 4 wins).  In fact I think Lilly can be a solid number 3 behind Carlos Zambrano and a healthy Mark Prior. Three million Cubs fans are now holding their breath and crossing their fingers.

The Alex Rodriguez/Manny Ramirez/Kevin Brown division
For bona fide stars signing huge deals that will inevitably lead to them being dealt (or at least dangled) for far less than their value down the road.

Alfonso Soriano signs an 8-year $136 million contract with the Cubs
    This is a pretty reasonable signing right now. Soriano was the premier offensive talent on the market and the Cubs had to be sure they wouldn’t be outbid, particularly after heralding the signing of new manager Lou Piniella as the dawning of a new era of success on the North Side of Chicago. However, Soriano will be 31 at the start of next season, which means that in years six, seven, and eight of this contract the Cubs will be shelling out approximately $17 million dollars a year to a player in his mid-30’s who relies on speed to have success. Couple that with the fact that they plan to play him in center field and it becomes clear that disciplined spending was not part of the Cubs game plan this season.

Barry Zito signs a 7-year $126 million contract with the Giants
    Fact: Barry Zito was the best free agent pitcher on the market this offseason.
    Fact: That really isn’t all that impressive.
    Zito looks great compared to most of the other pitchers that were available. He’s younger and more durable than Jason Schmidt, he’s on a different level than Ted Lilly and Jeff Suppan, and he has a Cy Young on his resume to boot. Still, with pitching being the most unpredictable entity on a major league roster, an investment this big and this long for Zito is extremely curious from the Giants’ perspective (and might go down as the biggest mistake of Brian Sabean’s career as GM). Other than great seasons in 2001 and 2002 (17-8 3.49, 23-5 2.75, respectively) Zito’s numbers have been solid but far from spectacular. Zito has pitched in the postseason after five of his seven seasons, and though his playoff numbers (4-3, 3.25 in seven starts) are solid if not impressive, Oakland only made it past the first round once in those five years (2006). The bottom line is that a pitcher like Zito can last a long time because he doesn’t rely on a blazing fastball (see: Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux). But would you be enthusiastic about paying a crafty veteran $18 million to go 12-9 with a 4.30 in 2013? The Giants shouldn’t be either.

The Mo Vaughn division
For sluggers that sign a big multi-year deal then proceed to eat everything in sight, leading to either an injury or ineffectiveness that drags their team’s winning percentage down inversely proportional to the percentage of the player’s weight increase.

Carlos Lee signs a 6-year $100 million contract with the Astros
    As I pointed out in a previous column, Lee is a great power bat, but he’s got a ranch in the Houston area and is already well on his way toward eating his way out of the outfield. As one of my readers pointed out, Houston might regret this deal by spring training when Lee ‘shows up looking like Hurley from Lost.’ If Lee can keep his weight somewhere near ‘husky,’  he might be the protection that Lance Berkman has been desperate for; if Lee balloons toward ‘morbidly obese,’ Houston might be in some trouble. They call Berkman ‘Fat Elvis’ in the Houston clubhouse, but it’s the weight of Lee that might end up holding back the Houston offense. Only time (and the Wendy’s Late-Nite menu) will tell.