Oh man….Good Lord….Sweet Jesus….Did I actually say that...What was I thinking?!?!....Hahahaha!!!....I’m an idiot.

Just a few thoughts running through my mind while going back over my predictions for the 2006 NFL season. The science of forecasting sports is obviously inexact. Simply take a look at Sports Illustrated (Carolina vs. Miami??). But I think I may have taken ineptitude to a new level.

Now, that isn’t to say I didn’t get a few things right. I do now something about the NFL. But what I am going to do for you now, loyal ASM reader, is do something most sportswriters wouldn’t do. I will take a look back at some of the bold statements I made, break them down by “good prediction” or “bad prediction,” and I will not be afraid to admit how wrong I was. And while we are at it, we can all have a good laugh. Then I will cry myself to sleep.

Good Predictions

“This is a team that has thrived in the past with Troy Brown at cornerback. I think Bill Belichick has a contingency plan.”

I wrote this in response to the media’s overreaction to the departure of Deion Branch. Tom Brady did struggle at first, but Belichick did, in fact, have a contingency plan. Brady’s final numbers: 3,529 yards, 24 TD, 12 INT.

“The 2004 Defensive Player of the Year is back healthy and could lead a Raven revival. With Steve McNair finally giving Baltimore a competent QB, the Ravens should have what it takes to make it a close division race.”

This prediction is half right. The division race wasn’t close at all. That’s because Ed Reed was healthy, and Steve McNair proved to be more than “competent.” Throw in Adalius Thomas becoming a force, and Ray Lewis being Ray Lewis for most of the season, and you’ve got yourself a Super Bowl contender.

“The affect on the Jaguars might be bigger than people think as well.”

The event referenced here is the retirement of Jimmy Smith. After putting up 70/1,000/6 in ’05, Smith hung ‘em up, and left the receiving in the hands of Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Jones led the team in receiving yards with 643 yards, and Williams paced them with 52 catches while starting quarterback Byron Leftwich ended up on the bench. Suffice it to say, Smith was missed.

“Anyway, last season at this time, they had championship aspirations. This year they have pretty much flown under the radar. They have the talent to win now.”

Talking about San Diego. Fairly easy to call, I think.

“Not much news out of Raider camp, but the fact that they had to resort to signing Jeff George says something about the QB situation.”

HA! I forgot they signed Jeff George. Geez.

“The Falcons will be lucky if Abraham plays more than 12 games this year. He is soft, and he refuses to play through injuries, not a good sign from your mentality-changing acquisition.”

Games played by Jon Abraham: Six.

“They are the hot preseason sleeper pick this year. But with a defense that allowed close to 25 points a game, they are a year and a couple defensive playmakers away.”

Remember the hype for the Cardinals? What I didn’t anticipate was Edgerrin James looking a lot like Marcel Shipp, and helping contribute to the 18th-ranked offense. Their defense did rank 29th though.

"The Bengals didn’t lose to the Steelers because Palmer got hurt. Their defense gave up 31 points and let Pittsburgh move down the field as it pleased. And this year’s schedule doesn’t include the NFC North’s quarterbacks (Rex Grossman, Culpepper at his worst, Joey Harrington, Brett Favre), against whom the Bengals intercepted 16 passes. I don’t see them as a Super Bowl contender based on this unit "

I think this might have been my best prediction. After netting 31 interceptions last season, Cincinnati only picked off 19 this season. They ended up as the 30th-ranked defense, not enough to complement the 8th-ranked offense. I feel smart.

But not for too long...