Nostra-Dumbass
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/678/1/Nostra-Dumbass/Nostra-Dumbass.html
Josh Binstock
A sports junkie since birth, Josh Binstock takes pleasure in contributing to Atomic Sports Media. His favorite pastimes, other than his beloved Giants, Yanks, Knicks and Rangers, include Family Guy, 24, NFL Films, and Rutgers Football. If Josh was a food, he'd be delicious.
By Josh Binstock
Published on 01/5/2007
In the grand scheme of things, August wasn't that long ago. But for Atomic Sports columnst Josh Binstock, a quick review of his preseason projections for the NFL was enough to remind him that many things we thought were safe bets this summer made about as much sense as Bush's foreign policy.
In the grand scheme of things, August wasn't that long ago. But for Atomic Sports columnst Josh Binstock, a quick review of his preseason projections for the NFL was enough to remind him that many things we thought were safe bets this summer made about as much sense as Bush's foreign policy.
Nostra-Dumbass
Oh man….Good Lord….Sweet Jesus….Did I actually say that...What was I thinking?!?!....Hahahaha!!!....I’m an idiot.
Just a few thoughts running through my mind while going back over my predictions for the 2006 NFL season. The science of forecasting sports is obviously inexact. Simply take a look at Sports Illustrated (Carolina vs. Miami??). But I think I may have taken ineptitude to a new level.
Now, that isn’t to say I didn’t get a few things right. I do now something about the NFL. But what I am going to do for you now, loyal ASM reader, is do something most sportswriters wouldn’t do. I will take a look back at some of the bold statements I made, break them down by “good prediction” or “bad prediction,” and I will not be afraid to admit how wrong I was. And while we are at it, we can all have a good laugh. Then I will cry myself to sleep.
Good Predictions
“This is a team that has thrived in the past with Troy Brown at cornerback. I think Bill Belichick has a contingency plan.”
I wrote this in response to the media’s overreaction to the departure of Deion Branch. Tom Brady did struggle at first, but Belichick did, in fact, have a contingency plan. Brady’s final numbers: 3,529 yards, 24 TD, 12 INT.
“The 2004 Defensive Player of the Year is back healthy and could lead a Raven revival. With Steve McNair finally giving Baltimore a competent QB, the Ravens should have what it takes to make it a close division race.”
This prediction is half right. The division race wasn’t close at all. That’s because Ed Reed was healthy, and Steve McNair proved to be more than “competent.” Throw in Adalius Thomas becoming a force, and Ray Lewis being Ray Lewis for most of the season, and you’ve got yourself a Super Bowl contender.
“The affect on the Jaguars might be bigger than people think as well.”
The event referenced here is the retirement of Jimmy Smith. After putting up 70/1,000/6 in ’05, Smith hung ‘em up, and left the receiving in the hands of Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Jones led the team in receiving yards with 643 yards, and Williams paced them with 52 catches while starting quarterback Byron Leftwich ended up on the bench. Suffice it to say, Smith was missed.
“Anyway, last season at this time, they had championship aspirations. This year they have pretty much flown under the radar. They have the talent to win now.”
Talking about San Diego. Fairly easy to call, I think.
“Not much news out of Raider camp, but the fact that they had to resort to signing Jeff George says something about the QB situation.”
HA! I forgot they signed Jeff George. Geez.
“The Falcons will be lucky if Abraham plays more than 12 games this year. He is soft, and he refuses to play through injuries, not a good sign from your mentality-changing acquisition.”
Games played by Jon Abraham: Six.
“They are the hot preseason sleeper pick this year. But with a defense that allowed close to 25 points a game, they are a year and a couple defensive playmakers away.”
Remember the hype for the Cardinals? What I didn’t anticipate was Edgerrin James looking a lot like Marcel Shipp, and helping contribute to the 18th-ranked offense. Their defense did rank 29th though.
"The Bengals didn’t lose to the Steelers because Palmer got hurt. Their defense gave up 31 points and let Pittsburgh move down the field as it pleased. And this year’s schedule doesn’t include the NFC North’s quarterbacks (Rex Grossman, Culpepper at his worst, Joey Harrington, Brett Favre), against whom the Bengals intercepted 16 passes. I don’t see them as a Super Bowl contender based on this unit "
I think this might have been my best prediction. After netting 31 interceptions last season, Cincinnati only picked off 19 this season. They ended up as the 30th-ranked defense, not enough to complement the 8th-ranked offense. I feel smart.
But not for too long...
Just a few thoughts running through my mind while going back over my predictions for the 2006 NFL season. The science of forecasting sports is obviously inexact. Simply take a look at Sports Illustrated (Carolina vs. Miami??). But I think I may have taken ineptitude to a new level.
Now, that isn’t to say I didn’t get a few things right. I do now something about the NFL. But what I am going to do for you now, loyal ASM reader, is do something most sportswriters wouldn’t do. I will take a look back at some of the bold statements I made, break them down by “good prediction” or “bad prediction,” and I will not be afraid to admit how wrong I was. And while we are at it, we can all have a good laugh. Then I will cry myself to sleep.
Good Predictions
“This is a team that has thrived in the past with Troy Brown at cornerback. I think Bill Belichick has a contingency plan.”
I wrote this in response to the media’s overreaction to the departure of Deion Branch. Tom Brady did struggle at first, but Belichick did, in fact, have a contingency plan. Brady’s final numbers: 3,529 yards, 24 TD, 12 INT.
“The 2004 Defensive Player of the Year is back healthy and could lead a Raven revival. With Steve McNair finally giving Baltimore a competent QB, the Ravens should have what it takes to make it a close division race.”
This prediction is half right. The division race wasn’t close at all. That’s because Ed Reed was healthy, and Steve McNair proved to be more than “competent.” Throw in Adalius Thomas becoming a force, and Ray Lewis being Ray Lewis for most of the season, and you’ve got yourself a Super Bowl contender.
“The affect on the Jaguars might be bigger than people think as well.”
The event referenced here is the retirement of Jimmy Smith. After putting up 70/1,000/6 in ’05, Smith hung ‘em up, and left the receiving in the hands of Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Jones led the team in receiving yards with 643 yards, and Williams paced them with 52 catches while starting quarterback Byron Leftwich ended up on the bench. Suffice it to say, Smith was missed.
“Anyway, last season at this time, they had championship aspirations. This year they have pretty much flown under the radar. They have the talent to win now.”
Talking about San Diego. Fairly easy to call, I think.
“Not much news out of Raider camp, but the fact that they had to resort to signing Jeff George says something about the QB situation.”
HA! I forgot they signed Jeff George. Geez.
“The Falcons will be lucky if Abraham plays more than 12 games this year. He is soft, and he refuses to play through injuries, not a good sign from your mentality-changing acquisition.”
Games played by Jon Abraham: Six.
“They are the hot preseason sleeper pick this year. But with a defense that allowed close to 25 points a game, they are a year and a couple defensive playmakers away.”
Remember the hype for the Cardinals? What I didn’t anticipate was Edgerrin James looking a lot like Marcel Shipp, and helping contribute to the 18th-ranked offense. Their defense did rank 29th though.
"The Bengals didn’t lose to the Steelers because Palmer got hurt. Their defense gave up 31 points and let Pittsburgh move down the field as it pleased. And this year’s schedule doesn’t include the NFC North’s quarterbacks (Rex Grossman, Culpepper at his worst, Joey Harrington, Brett Favre), against whom the Bengals intercepted 16 passes. I don’t see them as a Super Bowl contender based on this unit "
I think this might have been my best prediction. After netting 31 interceptions last season, Cincinnati only picked off 19 this season. They ended up as the 30th-ranked defense, not enough to complement the 8th-ranked offense. I feel smart.
But not for too long...
Nostra-Dumbass
Bad (and I mean baaaad) predictions:
“Way too much publicity for a guy who’s not even going to start. He’ll be very exciting some day, but not yet.”
The player in question? None other than Rookie of the Year candidate Vince Young. At least he was “exciting someday.”
“People tend to forget that he lost Willie Roaf, and that Herm Edwards is his coach. Not a good combination.”
All Larry Johnson did without Roaf was put up close to 1,800 yards and 17 touchdowns. And Herm Edwards definitely underused him, only handing it off to him 416 times, and getting him a combined 457 touches.
“I don’t love Jake Plummer, but it wasn’t his fault Pittsburgh piled up 34 points against Denver’s defense en route to a title. I would be shocked if Cutler got valuable playing time this season, as everyone is so sure he will get.”
No, I wasn’t “shocked” when it actually happened. But this was me trying to hold to my contrarian beliefs a bit too strongly. Cutler has lots of potential. A little bit of saving grace comes from the fact that some of his early struggle actually cost the Broncos a trip to the playoffs.
“Pierce is the catalyst for what could be a dominant defense with the like of Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, and import Lavar Arrington.”
“Dominant.” Did somebody say “hyperbole?” Now, the Giants defense did look very good when they won five straight games in the middle of the season before all three aforementioned players went down to injury. But to use the word “dominant,” may have been a bit of overreacting.
“Does anyone remember 2001? The Bears made the playoffs with a dominant defense and no offense, lost at home in their first playoff game, and took a huge dive in 2002. Why doesn’t anyone see that the same thing will happen to the 2006 Bears? It’s almost a carbon copy.”
Almost a carbon copy, but not quite. It’s not very often a prediction for a season is wrong after eight games.
“Carolina should be awesome, and is probably the best team in the conference.”
On second thought, probably not.
“…but the Saints have lots of other things to worry about before they focus on Bush. Drew Brees will be a huge improvement at QB, and I expect a big bounce-back year from Joe Horn. Their defense is horrendous, however, and they will keep the team from succeeding.”
Obviously, Brees was a huge improvement at QB. But Joe Horn? Not so much. And that much-maligned Saints defense? Only ranked 11th in the NFL. And I don’t think that the unit kept them from succeeding.
“What do the ’05 Eagles, ’04 Panthers, ’03 Raiders, ’02 Rams, and ’01 Giants have in common? They were all Super Bowl losers from the previous year that failed to reach the playoffs the following season. Who’s to say it won’t happen to Seattle?”
Ummm….The rest of the NFC West, maybe? This isn’t a terrible prediction, though, as the Seahawks definitely struggled to win the division this year.
“49ers Defense. They could be historically bad. They lost their only star quality player in Julian Peterson. They will be on the field for most of the game due to the Niners inept offense.”
Wow, I was a bit harsh. Granted, they weren’t great, ranking 25th in total defense. But historically bad? Not even close. They actually resembled a competitive team this year, and have some potential impact players on the roster.
“Tampa Bay. News Flash: They’re really good. They have talent at every position, offensively and defensively. They have a good coach. They were a dropped pass away from advancing in the playoffs last year, and they retained most of their key players. All of that, yet nobody is talking about them.”
Holy crap. How pretentious do I sound? “News Flash?” I sound like Biff Tannen from “Back to the Future.” This is actually worse than my Bears prediction. I was proven wrong after four games. They are a terrible roughing the passer penalty and missed 62-yard field goal away from having the worst record in the NFL. News flash: I’m an idiot.
And now for the Coup de Grace:
“Mark my words: Detroit will win this division. My friend Dani from Oak Park, Michigan is smiling ear to ear. They have as much talent as anyone offensively, and Mike Martz is back to being an offensive coordinator, the job he gained notoriety for in St. Louis running “The Greatest Show on Turf”. Their defense causes lots of turnovers, and defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson comes to Motown after improving the Jets defense dramatically.”
Sweet six pound-eight ounce, tiny infant Jesus. As pretentious as “news flash” sounds, “mark my words” is like a thousand times worse. And what is with my logic??? Their defense causes lots of turnovers? 2005: 29 turnovers caused. That’s less than two per game, not what I would classify as “a lot”. And Donnie Henderson? He got fired exactly two days after his first season. And news just came in that Matt Millen will not be fired. As Dani, the one who is not smiling ear to ear anymore just told me: “And you wonder why I cut myself.”
My Super Bowl teams are still in it. Thank God the Giants and the Colts don’t have to face Detroit in the playoffs.
All of this should prove a point to everyone out there. Don’t put any stock in anybody’s preseason musings, ever. And, as always, I really am an idiot.
“Way too much publicity for a guy who’s not even going to start. He’ll be very exciting some day, but not yet.”
The player in question? None other than Rookie of the Year candidate Vince Young. At least he was “exciting someday.”
“People tend to forget that he lost Willie Roaf, and that Herm Edwards is his coach. Not a good combination.”
All Larry Johnson did without Roaf was put up close to 1,800 yards and 17 touchdowns. And Herm Edwards definitely underused him, only handing it off to him 416 times, and getting him a combined 457 touches.
“I don’t love Jake Plummer, but it wasn’t his fault Pittsburgh piled up 34 points against Denver’s defense en route to a title. I would be shocked if Cutler got valuable playing time this season, as everyone is so sure he will get.”
No, I wasn’t “shocked” when it actually happened. But this was me trying to hold to my contrarian beliefs a bit too strongly. Cutler has lots of potential. A little bit of saving grace comes from the fact that some of his early struggle actually cost the Broncos a trip to the playoffs.
“Pierce is the catalyst for what could be a dominant defense with the like of Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, and import Lavar Arrington.”
“Dominant.” Did somebody say “hyperbole?” Now, the Giants defense did look very good when they won five straight games in the middle of the season before all three aforementioned players went down to injury. But to use the word “dominant,” may have been a bit of overreacting.
“Does anyone remember 2001? The Bears made the playoffs with a dominant defense and no offense, lost at home in their first playoff game, and took a huge dive in 2002. Why doesn’t anyone see that the same thing will happen to the 2006 Bears? It’s almost a carbon copy.”
Almost a carbon copy, but not quite. It’s not very often a prediction for a season is wrong after eight games.
“Carolina should be awesome, and is probably the best team in the conference.”
On second thought, probably not.
“…but the Saints have lots of other things to worry about before they focus on Bush. Drew Brees will be a huge improvement at QB, and I expect a big bounce-back year from Joe Horn. Their defense is horrendous, however, and they will keep the team from succeeding.”
Obviously, Brees was a huge improvement at QB. But Joe Horn? Not so much. And that much-maligned Saints defense? Only ranked 11th in the NFL. And I don’t think that the unit kept them from succeeding.
“What do the ’05 Eagles, ’04 Panthers, ’03 Raiders, ’02 Rams, and ’01 Giants have in common? They were all Super Bowl losers from the previous year that failed to reach the playoffs the following season. Who’s to say it won’t happen to Seattle?”
Ummm….The rest of the NFC West, maybe? This isn’t a terrible prediction, though, as the Seahawks definitely struggled to win the division this year.
“49ers Defense. They could be historically bad. They lost their only star quality player in Julian Peterson. They will be on the field for most of the game due to the Niners inept offense.”
Wow, I was a bit harsh. Granted, they weren’t great, ranking 25th in total defense. But historically bad? Not even close. They actually resembled a competitive team this year, and have some potential impact players on the roster.
“Tampa Bay. News Flash: They’re really good. They have talent at every position, offensively and defensively. They have a good coach. They were a dropped pass away from advancing in the playoffs last year, and they retained most of their key players. All of that, yet nobody is talking about them.”
Holy crap. How pretentious do I sound? “News Flash?” I sound like Biff Tannen from “Back to the Future.” This is actually worse than my Bears prediction. I was proven wrong after four games. They are a terrible roughing the passer penalty and missed 62-yard field goal away from having the worst record in the NFL. News flash: I’m an idiot.
And now for the Coup de Grace:
“Mark my words: Detroit will win this division. My friend Dani from Oak Park, Michigan is smiling ear to ear. They have as much talent as anyone offensively, and Mike Martz is back to being an offensive coordinator, the job he gained notoriety for in St. Louis running “The Greatest Show on Turf”. Their defense causes lots of turnovers, and defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson comes to Motown after improving the Jets defense dramatically.”
Sweet six pound-eight ounce, tiny infant Jesus. As pretentious as “news flash” sounds, “mark my words” is like a thousand times worse. And what is with my logic??? Their defense causes lots of turnovers? 2005: 29 turnovers caused. That’s less than two per game, not what I would classify as “a lot”. And Donnie Henderson? He got fired exactly two days after his first season. And news just came in that Matt Millen will not be fired. As Dani, the one who is not smiling ear to ear anymore just told me: “And you wonder why I cut myself.”
My Super Bowl teams are still in it. Thank God the Giants and the Colts don’t have to face Detroit in the playoffs.
All of this should prove a point to everyone out there. Don’t put any stock in anybody’s preseason musings, ever. And, as always, I really am an idiot.