Mariners fans just cannot escape the names.  They lie awake at night tormented by them, like a child afraid of the monster hiding in his closet.  The mere mention of the names instills fear in the hearts of everybody who bleeds Mariners blue.  But the names that cause sleepless nights for Mariners fans shouldn’t be Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Texiera, and Rich Harden, some of the Mariners scariest division foes.  The names Mariners fans shouldn’t be able to get out of their heads are Rick Ankiel, Ben McDonald, Ryan Wagner, and Cal Eldred; young pitchers bursting with talent who achieved great success in their first taste of the big leagues, and then struggled to find it again.  
    
The Mariners can only hope that Felix Hernandez, the 20-year-old Venezuelan on whose golden right arm the future of the franchise rests, is not the latest addition to the list.  After a stellar rookie season in 2005 (12 starts, 2.67 era, 1.00 whip), Hernandez regressed last year and his ERA ballooned to 4.56.  His struggles mirrored those of the team, which finished last in the A.L. West, 15 games behind the Athletics.  It was the Mariners third straight losing season following four consecutive years of at least 90 wins.  

Seattle entered the offseason hoping to land a frontline starter to join Hernandez in the starting rotation. Disappointment ensued as they were spurned by Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito, and they failed to pony up enough cash to land the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Instead, Hernandez will be joined in the rotation by veteran lefty Jarrod Washburn, the only other returning starter, Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista, and Horacio Ramirez.  

Despite having an ERA of 6.29 in 16 AL starts last season, Weaver’s postseason performance with the Cardinals after switching leagues (2.43 ERA in 5 starts) was enough to convince the Mariners he’s worth the more than $8 million the team will pay him this season. (Perhaps Seattle signed him with an overly optimistic eye towards shutting down the Mets in the World Series.)  In another shortsighted move, the Mariners committed nearly three times that amount of money (3 years, $24 million), to the 36 year-old Batista, a pitcher who last had success as a full time starter in 2003.  Ramirez, who came over from the Braves in a deal for Rafael Soriano, is the most intriguing of the Mariners new acquisitions.  Although he has battled injuries and inconsistency over the last two years, Ramirez’s performance from 2003-2004 has shown he is capable of being a 15-game winner.

 Given the tremendous amount of uncertainty surrounding the Seattle rotation, it does not bode well for the team that their lineup is the biggest question mark heading into the season.  Seattle acquired Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro to help shore up an offense that finished next to last in the American league in runs last year, but questions still remain.  Much like President Bush’s original Iraq strategy, the Mariners projected lineup contains a laundry list of flaws and mishaps waiting to happen.

Vidro has been fighting a losing battle with injuries for three seasons in a row and Guillen, the team’s new right fielder, hit .216 last season.  Adrian Beltre’s MVP-caliber season in 2004 is proving to be a fluke, the results of steroids, or both.  Raul Ibanez is Seattle’s best hitter, but will be 35 in June, and Richie Sexson’s power numbers have been declining since he broke his wrist three years ago.  The Mariners could get some consistency from the bottom third of their lineup, although it should be noted that their starting middle infielders, Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt, are younger than Julio Franco---when their ages are added together.  The only constant is Ichiro, a player whose table setting skills at the top of the lineup will inevitably cause Seattle’s offense to overachieve in spite of the hitters behind him.

One bright spot for the Mariners is their bullpen.  Relief pitching should be the least of the team’s problems, and not only because there will be few leads to protect.  J.J. Putz is an adequate closer, and the arms of Jon Huber, George Sherrill, Jake Woods, and Julio Mateo should be able to hold a lead through the 7th and 8th innings.  The team also brought back Arthur Rhodes, who should serve as a bullpen insurance policy before he’s shipped off at the trade deadline for the infamous player to be named later.

As Manger Mike Hargrove enters his third season with the Mariners, the pressure is on to get them into the playoffs.   Unfortunately for Hargrove, he has his work cut out for him.  The Mariners will have to endure one of the toughest divisions in baseball, and a schedule that features a combined 35 games against the Angels and Athletics.  For a team that finished ahead of only Kansas City and Tampa Bay in American League OPS last season, this will be tough to overcome.  The Mariners simply have too many hitters who could end up hovering around the Mendoza line, not to mention a few pitchers whose ERA’s might resemble home mortgage rates.

The Mariners are a team with no glaring holes, but a whole lot of “ifs and “buts.”  If everybody does their part and plays up to their capabilities, the Mariners have a chance to reach the playoffs.  Unfortunately, the reality is that if the Mariners are a team built to make the playoffs, it’s the 2004 playoffs.  The best days of Washburn, Weaver, Batista, Vidro, Sexson, and Guillen are likely behind them, and if the team doesn’t know it yet, they will find out soon enough.  The Mariners only hope to compete in the difficult A.L. West is if they can find an x-factor, someone whose ability can single-handedly move games from the loss column to the win column. 

That brings us back to Hernandez.  Theories abound about why he struggled last season. Some said he was overweight or that he was tipping his pitches.  Others thought he was using his fastball too much, while another group of “experts” said he was using his breaking ball too much.  Perhaps he was just a 20 year-old kid going through growing pains as he adjusted to a league full of the best hitters in the world.  Regardless of the cause, the Mariners need King Felix to get past his struggles and return to being the pitcher he was during his rookie season.  Their chances of competing for a playoff spot depend on it.

2006: 78-84 (4th place in AL West)