Since signing with the Angels prior to the 2004 season, Vladimir Guerrero has never had the lineup protection that would allow him to be a truly dominant force. He’s done just fine with Garret Anderson and others hitting behind him, but the Angels haven’t made it back to the World Series since their 2002 championship.

This offseason, with few power bats on the market, it was expected that GM Bill Stoneman would need to overspend for a power hitter to plug into the Angel lineup. However, I’m sure I wasn’t the only one surprised that Gary Matthews Jr. was the man he opted to open the vault for. While it’s true that Matthews may have had a breakout season last year that will lead to prolonged success, let’s not forget that he’s 32 and has played for six different teams. Superstars don’t bounce around like that. The Matthews deal was the worst position player signing of the offseason (narrowly edging the Dodgers giving Juan Pierre more than $40 million), and that was before he was implicated in the latest steroid scandal rocking American sports.

(And, lest we forget, the last center fielder the Angels signed to a big contract was Steve Finley before the 2005 season. I heralded the Finley acquisition as the best signing of that offseason at the time. All he did to back me up was hit .222 and earn himself a release; I’m sure you can understand why it might take a while for me to come around to this Matthews signing.)

Aside from the club’s inability to provide protection for Guerrero yet again, the Angels have plenty to look forward to this season and can fairly call themselves the favorites in the AL West. And, as always, there is no better place to start assessing their chances than starting pitching.

As we’ve seen with the 2006 Cardinals and 2005 White Sox, a team with hot pitching in October is always a threat to make a World Series run. And as we’ve seen with the 2006 Mets, the 2004 Yankees, and countless others, a team with a pitching staff held together by spit-and-glue tends to go home earlier than desired.

Fortunately for the Angels, they appear to have arguably the best top-to-bottom staff in the American League, perhaps all of baseball. John Lackey has been solid and reliable, despite not posting great numbers last season (13-11, 3.56).  He exemplifies the only flaw in this rotation: the lack of a bona-fide number 1 starter. Lackey is the closest, but keep in mind that his career high in wins is only 14.  Behind Lackey, Kelvim Escobar has bounced between the pen and the rotation a little in his career; the Angels are hoping that a second straight full year as a starter will help his preparation and see an improvement in his won-loss record (11-14 in 2006).

 The Angels may not have an ace right now, but fortunately for them they appear to have two aces-in-waiting slotted into their rotation. Ervin Santana is widely regarded as one of the most talented young starters in the game, but his numbers in his first two big league seasons were good, not great. He needs to continue to lower his ERA (4.65in 2005, 4.28 in 2006) without his durability suffering, as he started 33 games and threw more than 200 innings last season.

The other future ace in the rotation for the Angels is Jered Weaver, who looks like he might be the pitcher everyone once thought his brother Jeff was going to turn into. Weaver started his career like his pants were on fire, racing through the American League and looking unbeatable for most of the season, ultimately posting an 11-2 mark. If Weaver can shake the bicep tendonitis that’s currently bothering him and be ready for Opening Day, the Angels rotation will be set up very well 1-4. Still, I’d expect struggles from Weaver at times this season as hitters get a second, third, and fourth look at him. Not to suggest that he’s going to fall apart, but let’s not start predicting 20 wins and a 2.50 ERA just yet; 13-8 with a 3.75 is a lot more realistic. Don’t forget that the most innings Weaver has pitched in a big league season is 123 innings, and he will be asked to go well beyond that in ’07.

The Angels seem ready to go into the season with young lefty Joe Saunders penciled in as the 5th starter. Saunders was pretty successful in 13 starts last season with 7 wins. However, unless he tears it up in April or the rotation suffers further injuries, he’s just holding a place for Bartolo Colon right now. The Angels are taking their time with Colon, who has been injured and only threw 56 innings last season, but keep in mind that he is a former Cy Young winner, albeit a former Cy that has had serious weight issues. If (and it’s a pretty big if) Colon can get back to his old form and everyone else stays healthy, the Angels will have the best rotation in baseball for certain. Whenever you can pencil in a guy who has won 20 games and a Cy Young as your 5th starter, things are pretty good.