The Giants enter Spring Training 2007 after the most bizarre and surreal offseason of all time.  After last year’s less then stellar performance Giants fans were expecting two things: for the team to get younger and the team to get cheaper.  Well, we didn’.

After the signing of former Giant Rich Aurilla and the re-signing of Ray Durham, a bomb was dropped when the team signed Barry Zito for $126 million over seven years.  I’ve never seen fans so disappointed with the signing of a top-notch player.  I don’t know if I’d sign any pitcher to even a five-year deal, let alone a 28-year-old who seems to be on the downswing.
    
Then there’s Bary Bonds.  What can I say that hasn’t already been said?  The most controversial man in sports re-signs for a little less than $16 million despite the fact he could go to prison halfway through the season.

At the end of the day, the Giants payroll actually increased to over $95 million for 2007 and will get little bang for the buck as the team probably won’t win 85 games.  Every move the Giants made was at BEST questionable, but Russ Ortiz and Ryan Klesko?  Really? Why?  I didn’t care much for Ortiz back when he was good, and word is he wants to be a starter not a long reliever.  I’ve got news for him: when you have an ERA over 7.00, you take what’s offered Russ.  And Klesko?  Is he really going to be more productive then Todd Linden or Lance Niekro?  I don’t get it.  Maybe part of the reason why the Giants don’t develop any position players is that they don’t give them a chance to play.  Case in point: Elizer Alfonzo had a solid season last year, but they go out and pick up Bengie Molina a catcher known for his defense who isn’t even that good defensively anymore.
    
But that’s neither here nor there.  An underachieving overpaid team can still get it done in the National League West, though the division should prove more competitive than last season.  Still, somewhere around 88-92 wins should take it home, and even though I think the Giants will finish fourth, they could also pull it together and make a run.
    
It begins with the starting pitching, which is clearly the team’s strength.  Just because Zito is overpaid doesn’t mean he’s not good, and Matt Cain is one of the best young pitchers in baseball.  Noah Lowry has the talent of a 20-game winner, albeit the results of a .500 pitcher.  This is his third full season, and if healthy, he should at least top the 15 win mark.  Honestly it’s a pretty dangerous 1-2-3 punch.  Matt Morris locks down the fourth spot, and the battle for the fifth spot will be between veteran Ortiz (gag) and phenom Jonathan Sanchez.  With Cain, Lowry, and Sanchez, the Giants are loaded with talented young pitchers and there are more on the way from the minors for the rotation and bullpen.
    
The pen was this team’s Achilles heal last season, led by the anti-clutch closer Armando Benitez.  One thing Bruce Bochy always did in San Diego was manage his bullpen well, and I think the Giants might surprise some people and be fairly competent in the latter innings depending on how things shake out.  A lot of young kids are battling for the 3 spots alongside Steve Kline, Armando Benitez and Brian Wilson, but the most important battle is between Wilson and Benitez for the closer job.  If Armando wins out, it’s going to be a long, long season by the bay.

The offense doesn’t pack much punch, but has a lot more speed than in recent years.  Really, the Giants have seven guys who should bat second, and Barry Bonds.  The biggest question is who will bat third in front of Bonds?  It’s probably between Aurillia and Durham, who both, not surprisingly, had their best seasons batting in front of Bonds (Aurillia hit 37 home runs in front of Barry in 2001).  The lineup could look like this:
1.    CF Roberts
2.    SS Vizquel
3.    1B Aurillia
4.    LF Bonds
5.    2B Durham
6.    RF Winn
7.    3B Feliz
8.    C Molina
9.    Pitcher

Everyone there can hit for a decent average, and you have a lot of speed on the basepaths; the problem is the lack of power.  I don’t really see a 30 home run hitter in that lineup, which means this team is going to have to hit well with runners in scoring position, an area they struggled in last season, in order to be effective offensively.

The Giants have a pretty decent defensive infield, Vizquel is still one of the best at short and he has developed some good chemistry with Durham.  The outfield has a lot of speed in center and right, which allows the defense to compensate for Bonds’ eroding range in left. It should be a solid defense overall, especially when Linden or Jason Ellison comes in to replace Bonds in the late innings.

I guess on paper the Giants are pretty good, or pretty mediocre, depending on how you look at it.  It could come down to how this team starts, handles the Bonds situation, and develops its chemistry.  My final prediction is an 84-78 record, give or take six games, which might wind up being enough to make the playoffs.  However this season ends up, with federal investigations and enormous contracts livening things up it should be interesting getting there.

2006: 76-85 (3rd in NL West)