For about half the money that the Red Sox will pay J.D. Drew this season, the Dodgers were able to sign Luis Gonzalez, who has one big advantage over Drew: he stays on the field. The most games Drew has ever played in a season is 146, and he has only appeared in more than 135 games twice. Gonzalez, on the other hand, has played in fewer than 140 games only once in the past 10 seasons, and that was a year in which he suffered a serious shoulder injury. In fact, Gonzalez and fellow new Dodger Juan Pierre are both renowned for being among the most durable players in the game (Pierre has played in all 162 games four years running), which will be a welcome change of pace from Drew, who played in 146 games last year, but only 72 his first season with the Dodgers. Manager Grady Little will find it much easier making out his lineup this season, knowing that two-thirds of his outfield will be ready to go every day.
That being said, Gonzalez and Pierre will be hard-pressed to replace the offense Drew provided. This year’s Dodger lineup is not going to hit a lot of home runs and must hit well with runners in scoring position in order to top last season’s 88 wins. Joining Gonzalez and Pierre in the starting outfield is Andre Ethier, who was impressive after his callup last season. Ethier, who will be 25 in April, handled himself very well as a rookie, batting an impressive .308 and posting decent power numbers (11 HR in 396 AB) that should grow as he matures. Fourth outfielder Jason Repko is a grinder who will see time as a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-runner in addition to occasionally spelling Gonzalez against tough lefties. Waiting in the wings is Matt Kemp, a prospect that got his first taste of the big league last year and popped a Shane Spencer-esque 7 home runs in his first 18 games. The Dodgers hope his career doesn’t take the same route as Spencer’s and though he will may start the season in the minors you can be assured he will have a major impact on the 2007 Dodgers. Whether that’s in Grady Little’s lineup or as the centerpiece of a trade remains to be seen.
The other top prospect the Dodgers will need big things from is James Loney. Loney is presently stuck behind Nomar Garciaparra at first, but that’s temporary. Nomar had his best season since 2003 last season (.303/20/93),, and is back on a two-year $18.5 million deal, but let’s not forget this is a player that played 122 games last year in what was considered a ‘healthy’ season. Even if he matches last year’s performance, Loney will get plenty of at-bats in ’07, and 15-20 homers might not be a stretch even in a limited role.
Rafael Furcal and Wilson Betemit make it an all ex-Brave left side of the infield, and both will be instrumental to the Dodgers offensive success. Furcal had an excellent first season in LA, batting an even .300, stealing .307 and generally causing havoc for opposing pitchers. He has a rare mix of power and speed that, along with Pierre, will make the top of the lineup a challenge to get through every night. Betemit, once considered untouchable by the Braves, is just keeping third base warm for super-prospect Andy LaRoche. And if he matches last season’s .263 average, LaRoche won’t be waiting for long.
Along the same lines, if Jeff Kent can’t stay healthy (115 games, only 14 HR in 2006) he may find himself replaced by Betemit in an infield shuffle. Catcher Russell Martin played very well as a rookie last season. He didn’t put up gigantic numbers, but along with his fast-developing reputation as a terrific game-caller, the stats he posted (.282/10/65) were more than sufficient. Mike Lieberthal was signed as a free agent to back up Martin and just might thrive in a backup role if his injury problems don’t resurface.
If the closer wasn’t a fluke last season and the starters stay at least mostly healthy, the Dodger offense should be able to produce enough to win the NL West. A lot has to go right for this team to make a deep postseason run, but championships are rarely won by unlucky teams so that’s to be unexpected. A solid pitching staff, a decent offense, and two or three guys having career years is the recipe the 1996-2000 Yankees used to win 4 titles in five years. It’s possible the Dodgers might have something similar in the works in 2007.
2006: 88-74 (2nd in NL West, lost to Mets in NLDS)