Who's On Third?
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/772/1/Whos-On-Third/Whos-On-Third.html
Steve Schaefer
Steve Schaefer is a 2006 graduate of the prestigious SI Newhouse School at Syracuse University. Shockingly, this did not result in his being asked to be the editor-in-chief of Sports Illustrated immediately after graduation, but Steve remains optimistic.
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By Steve Schaefer
Published on 03/15/2007
That one's easy, it's Rookie of the Year runner-up Ryan Zimmerman. The problem for the Nationals is that they don't have anyone else in the lineup or the rotation to give him any protection. In the latest ASM 30 in 30 preview, Steve Schaefer forecasts another last-place finish for the team from Washington D.C.
That one's easy, it's Rookie of the Year runner-up Ryan Zimmerman. The problem for the Nationals is that they don't have anyone else in the lineup or the rotation to give him any protection. In the latest ASM 30 in 30 preview, Steve Schaefer forecasts another last-place finish for the team from Washington D.C.
Who's On Third?
Washington Nationals fans have plenty to look forward to. Young third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is going to be a star for years to come, the club finally has an ownership group in place, and a new stadium is in the works.
Unfortunately for those fans, the team is going to be absolutely dreadful this season.
A lot of teams struggle to find an ace on their staff, a guy who can take the ball and dominate whenever the team needs a big win; a guy who can be the stopper when the team has lost two in a row to a division rival and needs to pull out a game to avoid a sweep. Not only do the Nationals not have that guy, I’d say they don’t have anybody that could even lay claim to being a #2 or #3 starter.
De-facto #1 starter John Patterson is a nice guy to have as your fourth starter; his best season came in 2005 when he went 9-7 with a 3.13 ERA. Last year Patterson made exactly eight starts. Not encouraging. Things only get better from there. Jerome Williams, Tim Redding, Michael O’Connor, Shawn Hill; that’s the rotation as it stands now. In case you were wondering, not one of those pitchers has a winning career record. I’d wager (without having done the research) that Washington is the only team in baseball in such a predicament.
It doesn’t get much better in the bullpen. Closer Chad Cordero had a monster year in 2005 (I know this because I had him on my fantasy team), saving 47 games with a 1.82 ERA for a Washington team that was in contention most of the year. Last season Cordero couldn’t match that incredible breakout season but still performed well (29 for 33 in save opportunities, 3.19). And what did two great years get Cordero? Well it might get him a ticket out of town, as the Nationals have explored trade possibilities for the closer all offseason.
Dealing Cordero might actually be the smartest move for this team, since they won’t have the lead often enough to get him a significant number of save opportunities. And even if the Nationals do get a lead, the rest of the bullpen likely won’t be able to hold it. Even if you know Jon Rauch, the club’s only reliable setup man, chances are he’s the only Nationals reliever you’ve heard of. Don’t believe me? Well unless you live in the D.C. area and are a diehard Washington fan, odds are this is the first time you’ve seen these names: Beltran Perez, Jason Bergmann, Billy Traber (a former Mets prospect), Luis Ayala, Micah Bowie. Writing this list out, I don’t see how this team wins more than 65 games, I really don’t.
Offensively, there are a few more bright spots than on the pitching staff, but not that many. The aforementioned Zimmerman, the runner-up for last season’s Rookie of the Year Award. With 20 home runs, 110 RBI, and some spectacular defensive plays at third base, Zimmerman confirmed the Nationals hope that he can be their third baseman for the next decade. Unfortunately for the Nationals Zimmerman doesn’t have much help in the lineup, and it will be difficult for the 22-year-old to carry a team all by himself.
Unfortunately for those fans, the team is going to be absolutely dreadful this season.
A lot of teams struggle to find an ace on their staff, a guy who can take the ball and dominate whenever the team needs a big win; a guy who can be the stopper when the team has lost two in a row to a division rival and needs to pull out a game to avoid a sweep. Not only do the Nationals not have that guy, I’d say they don’t have anybody that could even lay claim to being a #2 or #3 starter.
De-facto #1 starter John Patterson is a nice guy to have as your fourth starter; his best season came in 2005 when he went 9-7 with a 3.13 ERA. Last year Patterson made exactly eight starts. Not encouraging. Things only get better from there. Jerome Williams, Tim Redding, Michael O’Connor, Shawn Hill; that’s the rotation as it stands now. In case you were wondering, not one of those pitchers has a winning career record. I’d wager (without having done the research) that Washington is the only team in baseball in such a predicament.
It doesn’t get much better in the bullpen. Closer Chad Cordero had a monster year in 2005 (I know this because I had him on my fantasy team), saving 47 games with a 1.82 ERA for a Washington team that was in contention most of the year. Last season Cordero couldn’t match that incredible breakout season but still performed well (29 for 33 in save opportunities, 3.19). And what did two great years get Cordero? Well it might get him a ticket out of town, as the Nationals have explored trade possibilities for the closer all offseason.
Dealing Cordero might actually be the smartest move for this team, since they won’t have the lead often enough to get him a significant number of save opportunities. And even if the Nationals do get a lead, the rest of the bullpen likely won’t be able to hold it. Even if you know Jon Rauch, the club’s only reliable setup man, chances are he’s the only Nationals reliever you’ve heard of. Don’t believe me? Well unless you live in the D.C. area and are a diehard Washington fan, odds are this is the first time you’ve seen these names: Beltran Perez, Jason Bergmann, Billy Traber (a former Mets prospect), Luis Ayala, Micah Bowie. Writing this list out, I don’t see how this team wins more than 65 games, I really don’t.
Offensively, there are a few more bright spots than on the pitching staff, but not that many. The aforementioned Zimmerman, the runner-up for last season’s Rookie of the Year Award. With 20 home runs, 110 RBI, and some spectacular defensive plays at third base, Zimmerman confirmed the Nationals hope that he can be their third baseman for the next decade. Unfortunately for the Nationals Zimmerman doesn’t have much help in the lineup, and it will be difficult for the 22-year-old to carry a team all by himself.
Who's On Third?
To Zimmerman’s left, shortstop Cristian Guzman couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, second baseman Felipe Lopez had a breakout year in 2005 but looked very average in 2006, and injured first baseman Nick Johnson won’t play until June.
Johnson is a good line-drive hitter and has a smooth almost Mattingly-esque style around the bag at first, but he needs to get on the field and stay on the field. In his absence Larry Broadway will probably get the bulk of the work at first base and to be perfectly honest I can’t say much about him since I’ve never even heard of him. Catcher Brian Schneider isn’t much of a hitter to speak of, but is known as a pretty good defensive backstop, which gets him a pass.
The outfield is filled with ‘potential’ guys that have yet to turn talent into production. Rightfielder Austin Kearns was acquired from Cincinnati last season after failing to establish himself despite countless chances. His 24 homers and 86 RBI last season, but his .264 average won’t make him a star; it will allow him to hang onto his starting spot in Washington though, since there really isn’t anyone better.
Centerfielder Ryan Church is another player the Nationals have had trade discussions about, but to this point they’ve refused to part with him. I’m not quite sure why. How a player with such unimpressive numbers (20 HR, 83 RBI in 527 career at-bats) becomes untouchable baffles me.
Leftfielder Alex Escobar was once the Mets top prospect, perhaps the top outfield prospect in all of baseball. Escobar did show some flashes last season, batting .356 in 33 games last year, but unless he pulls a Gary Matthews, don’t expect Escobar to suddenly put it all together at age 28.
Unfortunately for Washington fans, this season is going to be like the third Matrix film. The first one (the Nats 2005 season) came out of nowhere and was great, leading fans to believe that the next two would also be excellent. The franchise then took a dive with the Matrix Reloaded (2006 Nats), and the Matrix Revolutions (2007 Nats) which was the worst of all, and represented a truly catastrophic fall from grace.
New manager Manny Acta may be the right guy to nurse a young team into contention, but if that’s going to happen in Washington the team better start developing some young talent. The team that they will put on the field in ’07 isn’t going anywhere but the NL East basement for the second year running.
2006: 71-91 (5th in NL East)
Johnson is a good line-drive hitter and has a smooth almost Mattingly-esque style around the bag at first, but he needs to get on the field and stay on the field. In his absence Larry Broadway will probably get the bulk of the work at first base and to be perfectly honest I can’t say much about him since I’ve never even heard of him. Catcher Brian Schneider isn’t much of a hitter to speak of, but is known as a pretty good defensive backstop, which gets him a pass.
The outfield is filled with ‘potential’ guys that have yet to turn talent into production. Rightfielder Austin Kearns was acquired from Cincinnati last season after failing to establish himself despite countless chances. His 24 homers and 86 RBI last season, but his .264 average won’t make him a star; it will allow him to hang onto his starting spot in Washington though, since there really isn’t anyone better.
Centerfielder Ryan Church is another player the Nationals have had trade discussions about, but to this point they’ve refused to part with him. I’m not quite sure why. How a player with such unimpressive numbers (20 HR, 83 RBI in 527 career at-bats) becomes untouchable baffles me.
Leftfielder Alex Escobar was once the Mets top prospect, perhaps the top outfield prospect in all of baseball. Escobar did show some flashes last season, batting .356 in 33 games last year, but unless he pulls a Gary Matthews, don’t expect Escobar to suddenly put it all together at age 28.
Unfortunately for Washington fans, this season is going to be like the third Matrix film. The first one (the Nats 2005 season) came out of nowhere and was great, leading fans to believe that the next two would also be excellent. The franchise then took a dive with the Matrix Reloaded (2006 Nats), and the Matrix Revolutions (2007 Nats) which was the worst of all, and represented a truly catastrophic fall from grace.
New manager Manny Acta may be the right guy to nurse a young team into contention, but if that’s going to happen in Washington the team better start developing some young talent. The team that they will put on the field in ’07 isn’t going anywhere but the NL East basement for the second year running.
2006: 71-91 (5th in NL East)