All Wet
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/775/1/All-Wet/All-Wet.html
Steve Schaefer
Steve Schaefer is a 2006 graduate of the prestigious SI Newhouse School at Syracuse University. Shockingly, this did not result in his being asked to be the editor-in-chief of Sports Illustrated immediately after graduation, but Steve remains optimistic.
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By Steve Schaefer
Published on 03/16/2007
Dontrelle Willis had a tough time keeping things dry this offseason, but the Marlins return a talented young team that stayed in contention until late last season. With Willis and Miguel Cabrera leading the team, do the Fish have enough to get back to the postseason? Steve Schaefer breaks down Florida for ASM\'s 30 in 30.
Dontrelle Willis had a tough time keeping things dry this offseason, but the Marlins return a talented young team that stayed in contention until late last season. With Willis and Miguel Cabrera leading the team, do the Fish have enough to get back to the postseason? Steve Schaefer breaks down Florida for ASM\'s 30 in 30.
All Wet
The Marlins are the most well-organized poorly run teams in the history of baseball. Since coming into existence in 1993, they’ve built themselves into World Series winners twice, dismantled the club both times, and acquired enough young talent by selling off pieces to start the whole wheel of fortune turning again.
The Fish shocked everyone last season by nearly making a Wild Card run after being picked to finish dead last in the NL East. So what did they do to reward a club of overachievers? They fired Manager of the Year Joe Girardi.
Don’t get me wrong, new manager Fredi Gonzalez has an excellent coaching resume and comes highly touted by the likes of Bobby Cox in Atlanta. Still, this is a young team that overachieved last season (for many reasons, but Girardi was certainly one), and it’s hard to foresee them not taking a step back this year. Suffice it to say that if the Marlins were a stock, I’d be shorting them. (Sorry, I work for a financial news service and its starting to slip into my sportswriting apparently).
Florida’s ace, Dontrelle Willis, got arrested this offseason after mistaking a South Beach sidewalk for a urinal, leading to a DUI, and the Marlins rotation hasn’t gotten much good news since.
To start with, Willis didn’t even have that great of a season last year (12-12, 3.87) and was the subject of trade rumors even before his DUI incident. The Marlins best starter last season was actually rookie Josh Johnson (12-7, 3.10), but unfortunately for the Fish Johnson’s sophomore season is going to be delayed at least two months because of injury. Anibal Sanchez, acquired from the Red Sox in the deal for Josh Beckett, threw a no-hitter last summer en route to finishing 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 17 starts. Scott Olsen and Ricky Nolasco are the other two Marlin pitchers with the most major league experience, but neither had great numbers last year and will be challenged by the likes of Wes Obermueller, Sergio Mitre, and Yusmeiro Petit, who was acquired from the Mets in the 2005 Carlos Delgado deal.
I’d spend several paragraphs talking about the Florida bullpen, but I don’t know much about them. Possible closer Matt Lindstrom is another former Met prospect, and the 27-year-old does have one thing going for him: he throws gas. With a fastball that has been clocked up to 102 mph in camp, Lindstrom is in contention for the closer job with fellow righties Kevin Gregg and Henry Owens, and lefty Taylor Tankersley. Tankersley actually notched a few saves last season and had a 2.85 ERA while posting 46 strikeouts in 41 innings.
The Marlins offense is very young, but also has the potential to be very good. The only question is if Miguel Cabrera will still be playing third base when they maximize their potential. Cabrera doesn’t turn 24 until April 18, but it seems like he’s been in the big leagues forever due to his emergence as a 20-year-old wunderkind in 2003. In the three full seasons since, Cabrera has posted strikingly consistent HR (33/33/26) and RBI (112/116/114) totals. He has also seen his average improve each season since he came up, from .268 in 87 games in 2003 to .339 last season. It’s exciting to think what he may be capable of in a lineup where he is not the only serious threat, and the Marlins have the pieces to make that a reality this season. The team is young now, but even if he stays in Florida long-term (not a guarantee), don’t be surprised if Cabrera wins the Triple Crown.
The Fish shocked everyone last season by nearly making a Wild Card run after being picked to finish dead last in the NL East. So what did they do to reward a club of overachievers? They fired Manager of the Year Joe Girardi.
Don’t get me wrong, new manager Fredi Gonzalez has an excellent coaching resume and comes highly touted by the likes of Bobby Cox in Atlanta. Still, this is a young team that overachieved last season (for many reasons, but Girardi was certainly one), and it’s hard to foresee them not taking a step back this year. Suffice it to say that if the Marlins were a stock, I’d be shorting them. (Sorry, I work for a financial news service and its starting to slip into my sportswriting apparently).
Florida’s ace, Dontrelle Willis, got arrested this offseason after mistaking a South Beach sidewalk for a urinal, leading to a DUI, and the Marlins rotation hasn’t gotten much good news since.
To start with, Willis didn’t even have that great of a season last year (12-12, 3.87) and was the subject of trade rumors even before his DUI incident. The Marlins best starter last season was actually rookie Josh Johnson (12-7, 3.10), but unfortunately for the Fish Johnson’s sophomore season is going to be delayed at least two months because of injury. Anibal Sanchez, acquired from the Red Sox in the deal for Josh Beckett, threw a no-hitter last summer en route to finishing 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 17 starts. Scott Olsen and Ricky Nolasco are the other two Marlin pitchers with the most major league experience, but neither had great numbers last year and will be challenged by the likes of Wes Obermueller, Sergio Mitre, and Yusmeiro Petit, who was acquired from the Mets in the 2005 Carlos Delgado deal.
I’d spend several paragraphs talking about the Florida bullpen, but I don’t know much about them. Possible closer Matt Lindstrom is another former Met prospect, and the 27-year-old does have one thing going for him: he throws gas. With a fastball that has been clocked up to 102 mph in camp, Lindstrom is in contention for the closer job with fellow righties Kevin Gregg and Henry Owens, and lefty Taylor Tankersley. Tankersley actually notched a few saves last season and had a 2.85 ERA while posting 46 strikeouts in 41 innings.
The Marlins offense is very young, but also has the potential to be very good. The only question is if Miguel Cabrera will still be playing third base when they maximize their potential. Cabrera doesn’t turn 24 until April 18, but it seems like he’s been in the big leagues forever due to his emergence as a 20-year-old wunderkind in 2003. In the three full seasons since, Cabrera has posted strikingly consistent HR (33/33/26) and RBI (112/116/114) totals. He has also seen his average improve each season since he came up, from .268 in 87 games in 2003 to .339 last season. It’s exciting to think what he may be capable of in a lineup where he is not the only serious threat, and the Marlins have the pieces to make that a reality this season. The team is young now, but even if he stays in Florida long-term (not a guarantee), don’t be surprised if Cabrera wins the Triple Crown.
All Wet
The reason Cabrera hasn’t been able to win any MVP awards to date has been the lack of protection for him in the Florida lineup. That should change this season as the Marlins everyday lineup will feature at least 7 potentially solid hitters. First baseman Mike Jacobs did not erupt as some predicted after coming over from the Mets in the Delgado trade, but his 20 HR and 77 RBI in 136 games were decent. The Marlins need him to nudge those totals higher and boost his .262 average.
Last year the Marlins lineup featured an all-rookie middle infield in Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. For most teams that would be a recipe for disaster, but Ramirez and Uggla were the two best Florida hitters not named Cabrera last season. A Rule V draft selection from the Diamondbacks with zero major league at-bats coming into last season, all Uggla did was outpace Cabrera in home runs wby hitting 27, breaking the major league record for a rookie second baseman in the process. In most years Uggla’s performance would have made him a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year, but he finished 3rd in 2006 behind Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and Ramirez, who took the award home after an outstanding season.
Another player acquired from Boston in the highway robbery, I mean trade, for Josh Beckett, Ramirez had exactly two games worth of big league experience coming into last season. All he did was latch onto the Marlins shortstop spot and never let go, batting .292 with a very respectable 17 home runs, 11 triples, and 51 steals. Trades for players like Derrek Lee and Carl Pavano helped the Marlins win their last World Series title, and the deals for Uggla, Ramirez and others might help them win another one before too long.
In the outfield the Marlins saw a breakthrough year for Josh Willingham last season, and he will return to the starting role in left. Willingham smacked 26 home runs last season, his first full year in the bigs. Centerfielder Alex Sanchez was one of the first players suspended under the steroid policy and is not in the Marlins long-term plans, but as long as he plays solid defense he will have a spot on the team for now.
Rightfielder Jeremy Hermida was everyone’s favorite fantasty sleeper last season, and why not? After bursting onto the scene with four homers in a 23-game 41 at-bat cameo in 2005, people were ready to anoint Hermida as the great hitter the club had been waiting for to protect Cabrera. Unfortunately Hermida couldn’t stay on the field last season and played in only 99 games due to injury. However, even when he did play he wasn’t very good, batting .251 with only 5 home runs and 28 RBI. If Hermida can produce the numbers he hinted at in his 2005 debut, he will take a load of pressure off Cabrera and the rest of the young Marlins in the middle of the lineup. At 23, Hermida has a lot of career ahead of him, and I’d be surprised if he has another tough year. 25-30 home runs wouldn’t come as a shock.
The Marlins bench is versatile, but not deep. Aaron Boone is in camp as a backup middle infielder along with Alfredo Amezaga. Joe Borchard hits some monster home runs but isn’t consistent enough to warrant regular work, especially since he isn’t much of an outfielder. Youngsters Eric Reed and Cody Ross will also see action in the Marlin outfield.
As stated earlier, the Marlins overachieved last season for a variety of reasons. Although Joe Girardi’s dismissal won’t cripple the franchise, expecting everyone on the club to be better than last season is unrealistic. Unfortunately for the Marlins, that’s what it will take to make the playoffs. Fredi Gonzalez may be the manager tto eventually lead the Marlins back to another World Series, but it won’t be this year. Expect another fourth place finish.
2006: 78-84 (4th in NL East)
Last year the Marlins lineup featured an all-rookie middle infield in Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. For most teams that would be a recipe for disaster, but Ramirez and Uggla were the two best Florida hitters not named Cabrera last season. A Rule V draft selection from the Diamondbacks with zero major league at-bats coming into last season, all Uggla did was outpace Cabrera in home runs wby hitting 27, breaking the major league record for a rookie second baseman in the process. In most years Uggla’s performance would have made him a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year, but he finished 3rd in 2006 behind Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and Ramirez, who took the award home after an outstanding season.
Another player acquired from Boston in the highway robbery, I mean trade, for Josh Beckett, Ramirez had exactly two games worth of big league experience coming into last season. All he did was latch onto the Marlins shortstop spot and never let go, batting .292 with a very respectable 17 home runs, 11 triples, and 51 steals. Trades for players like Derrek Lee and Carl Pavano helped the Marlins win their last World Series title, and the deals for Uggla, Ramirez and others might help them win another one before too long.
In the outfield the Marlins saw a breakthrough year for Josh Willingham last season, and he will return to the starting role in left. Willingham smacked 26 home runs last season, his first full year in the bigs. Centerfielder Alex Sanchez was one of the first players suspended under the steroid policy and is not in the Marlins long-term plans, but as long as he plays solid defense he will have a spot on the team for now.
Rightfielder Jeremy Hermida was everyone’s favorite fantasty sleeper last season, and why not? After bursting onto the scene with four homers in a 23-game 41 at-bat cameo in 2005, people were ready to anoint Hermida as the great hitter the club had been waiting for to protect Cabrera. Unfortunately Hermida couldn’t stay on the field last season and played in only 99 games due to injury. However, even when he did play he wasn’t very good, batting .251 with only 5 home runs and 28 RBI. If Hermida can produce the numbers he hinted at in his 2005 debut, he will take a load of pressure off Cabrera and the rest of the young Marlins in the middle of the lineup. At 23, Hermida has a lot of career ahead of him, and I’d be surprised if he has another tough year. 25-30 home runs wouldn’t come as a shock.
The Marlins bench is versatile, but not deep. Aaron Boone is in camp as a backup middle infielder along with Alfredo Amezaga. Joe Borchard hits some monster home runs but isn’t consistent enough to warrant regular work, especially since he isn’t much of an outfielder. Youngsters Eric Reed and Cody Ross will also see action in the Marlin outfield.
As stated earlier, the Marlins overachieved last season for a variety of reasons. Although Joe Girardi’s dismissal won’t cripple the franchise, expecting everyone on the club to be better than last season is unrealistic. Unfortunately for the Marlins, that’s what it will take to make the playoffs. Fredi Gonzalez may be the manager tto eventually lead the Marlins back to another World Series, but it won’t be this year. Expect another fourth place finish.
2006: 78-84 (4th in NL East)