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Howard The Great
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/776/1/Howard-The-Great/Howard-The-Great.html
Peter Giordano
 
By Peter Giordano
Published on 03/18/2007
 


Reigning MVP Ryan Howard got a big raise and shouldn't have any trouble living up to it. Unfortunately the Phillies have a shaky bullpen and a shortstop with a big mouth that might curtail their chances at a division crown. Phillie fanatic Pete Giordano takes a look at the Fightin Phils as ASM's 30 in 30 rolls on.

Howard The Great
Two killer quotes found in the Associated Press from the Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins and the third pitcher in their highly improved rotation, Cole Hamels:   

Rollins: “I think we are the team to beat in the NL East—finally.  But that’s only on paper.”

Hamls: “My goal every year is to try to make the All-Star team, to win as many games as possible, to be in a competition for, oh, a trophy or an award.”

Wait a minute guys, not so fast.  Aren’t we getting a little ahead of ourselves here?  To be the best team in the NL East Jimmy, you’re going to have to win at least 100 games.  Last season the Mets won 97 and had the best record in the NL.  You boys fell two games short of the Wild Card for the second consecutive year, and only started to play with fire in August.

The Philadelphia front office is much better than it has been in the past.  GM Pat Gillick’s resume speaks for itself. After working as a Yankee scout and a nine-year stint in Toronto, where he won five division titles and two World Series championships, Gillick moved onto Seattle for three seasons and developed an AL powerhouse.  He has been able to restore fan excitement for Phillies baseball, making smart and efficient moves that will only improve the team long-term.  After all, he did take over a salary cap mess left by Ed Wade and his lack of baseball knowledge.    

On paper, the Phillies do have a damn good case in competing with the Mets and that team from Atlanta.  The Braves streak of 14 straight division titles is over and the Phillies have made strides to improve their Achilles Heel, starting pitching.

Brett Myers is the Phillies projected ace.  He just signed a three-year extension that finally solidifies him as their guy.  Last season he posted a 12-7 record with a 3.91 ERA and 189 batters.  Don’t be deceived by the record though, he also had 12 no decisions.  His control is always a problem both on and off the mound.  Let’s not forget his domestic violence incident in Boston last season.

You put Freddy Garcia next to horse, you can’t tell the difference.  An ace in his own right, the Phillies acquired Garcia in an offseason move that sent once-prized pitcher Gavin Floyd in to the White Sox.  Gillick clearly believes in Garcia; this is the second time he’s traded for the big right, the first was when he brought him to Seattle in the 1998 Randy Johnson deal with the Astros. Garcia is durable too; you can pencil him in for 30 starts and 200 innings right now.

Cole Hamels is a 23-year-old who expects to win 20 games every year.  He’s only had 23 career starts, but was the Phillies go-to pitcher down the stretch last season.   Many writers are becoming wary of a setback, however.  Call it a sophomore slump if you’d like, but history is rife with young pitchers breaking down in their second year of action.

Jamie Moyer is, like Garcia, a Gillick favorite from Seattle.  The lefty is 45 now, and one wonders if he has enough in the tank to produce the innings and wins the Phillies need in that fourth spot.  Adam Eaton, a free agent signing, is projected to be the fifth starter.  He comes from San Diego where he’s posted an ERA of 4.00 or higher the past three seasons.  Now the biggest question of the Phillies pitching staff comes into play.  What’s going to happen to Jon Leiber?  Is he an insurance policy for Moyer, Eaton and Hamels?  Is he trade bait for a much needed setup man?  My guess is his name will be floating around by July as teams are always looking for veteran pitching. 

Howard The Great
The bullpen is what may make or break the Phillies chances at winning the NL East.  The signing of Antonio Alfonseca likely means you can expect him in the later innings attempting to hand it over to the Phillies closer, Flash Gordon.  Gordon saved 34 games in 39 tries last season, but broke down in September.  Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary, and Fabio Castro you can also expect to see sitting in the bullpen collecting their checks.  The problem that still remains in the Phillies bullpen is role definition. Alfonseca will start the year as the setup man, but will struggle at times and it’s unclear who will step up to get big outs in the late innings.  My guess is probably good as Charlie Manuel’s at this point.

The Phillies lineup, especially their infield, is one of the best in the majors.  In late ’05 and early ‘06, we saw shorstop Jimmy Rollins produce the longest hit streak in Phillies history.  Last summer, Phillies fans saw another hit streak, this time 35 games by second baseman, Chase Utley. The duo combined for 57 home runs and set an NL record as the only middle infield teammates to hit 25 in the same season.

First baseman Ryan Howard, who just got a 900k raise to avoid arbitration (What’s another 100k between good friends?), is coming off an MVP season.  Having won Rookie of the Year honors in 2005, he became only the second player to win both awards consecutively (Cal Ripken Jr.).  If he can hit 58 home runs with 149 RBI again, the Phillies will be a force to reckon with.  The problem with this becomes “protection.” 

Pat Burrell is likely to be called upon for those duties, but his name is constantly on the trading and chopping blocks, for good reason.  Expect Shane Victorino to replace Burrell when he gets benched, as well as provide speed at the top of the order and in the outfield.  Aaron Rowand, the defensive specialist, provided the fans with some entertainment last season when he crashed into the centerfield wall and broke his nose while catching a line drive.  He was plagued with injuries after that, never returning to true form.  Look for newly signed free agents Wes Helms and Jayson Werth to provide much needed depth to the Phillies bench.  Helms will likely split time with Abraham Nunez at third, while Werth may start if Burrell can’t keep his average over the Mendoza line.

The moral of this story is that Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels need to be confident, not cocky.  Their faces and quotes are already on clubhouse bulletin boards in New York and Atlanta.

The bottom line is this: the Flyers and Sixers have no shot of providing a title to end Philadelphia’s drought this year, so expect the heat to come down on the Phillies.  Myself included, Philly fans don’t want to wait until Eagles mini-camp to start talking championships. 

On paper, the Phillies will win the East.

On paper, Communism is a great form of government. 

Uh, oh… 

2006: 85-77 (2nd in NL East)