As ASM’s resident baseball guru (at least that’s what I tell myself and anyone else who will listen), Opening Day is one of the happiest days of my year. I’ll get on to my predictions for the year in a moment, but first a thought on fantasy baseball.

I’m wondering if anyone else experiences the same issues regarding fantasy baseball that I do. I am such a diehard Yankee fan that I HATE to play fantasy baseball. I will not draft or acquire Red Sox players and make it a point to include as few AL pitchers on my roster as possible. Consequently I usually sacrifice my chances at winning the league I am in because I am so stubborn.

That being said, this season I decided I would cut the problem off at the head. When the league invites started coming in I would decline all of them. 2007 was going to be the year I finally said ‘nay’ to fantasy baseball.

And yet, today, I look up and I’m in four different fantasy baseball leagues; one for work, two ASM-related, and one with friends from high school. In short, it’s an unmitigated disaster, and it will not end well.

Sorry for the rant, but needed to get it out via some group therapy courtesty of my readers, now onto the predictions.

We start in the AL East, where the Boston Red Sox can no longer use the excuse that they can’t compete financially with the Yankees. Dice-K, Julio Lugo, J.D. Drew: that’s more than $200 million worth of contracts. Still, it won’t get the Sox anything more than a second-place finish in the East. Believe it or not, the Sox excellent starting pitching won’t do much for them in the division, and neither will having Jonathan Papelbon move back to the closer spot. In the slugfest that is the AL East, middle relief is what will decide the division, and the Red Sox don’t have the hard-throwers in the 6th 7th and 8th that the Yankees do, particularly if Mike Timlin can’t prove his age (41) isn’t a factor.

In the Central, the Indians freight train to the World Series derailed last season, but it’s back on the tracks in ’07. Minnesota always seems to find a way and has the best pitcher and best bullpen in the division, and the Tigers and ChiSox won the last two AL Pennants, but Cleveland’s young lineup and solid staff will take the division this season.

Out West it’s the Angels division to lose, but with seemingly half their roster (Colon, Weaver, Figgins, Rivera) starting the year on the DL, it seems that might be exactly what they’re going to do. The Rangers don’t have the pitching to contend, and although I expect them to start quickly, Seattle doesn’t have the horses to take the division. That leaves Oakland as the only contender for the Angels. If Harden stays healthy and Mike Piazza replaces Frank Thomas’ production, they can do it. If not, the Angels might take this division with 88 wins.

Expect the AL Wild Card to come out of the Central again, and this year I’m betting the Tigers will repeat. Adding Gary Sheffield to an already solid (albeit heavily right-handed) lineup gives them a swagger they lacked last season. If the staff can overcome the loss of Kenny Rogers (it’s no guarantee he’ll ever be the same pitcher, even if he returns) and the sophomore slump of Justin Verlander (almost a guarantee), they should have no trouble holding off the two Sox, Twins, and A’s.

In the National League East I’m highly skeptical of the Mets pitching (not sold on Maine and Oliver Perez), and I like the Phillies top to bottom. Expect a season-long battle; the Mets will not run away with the division as they did last year. In the end I like the Phillies winning a three-team race between them, the Mets, and a Braves club that I expect to be battling for a Wild Card spot into the last weekend.

A reader commented that the Reds are getting a bad rap in the Central, but they are not going to be good…hate to break it to everybody in Cincinnati. If the Bengals get anybody else arrested, the Indians don’t meet expectations and the Browns mess up in the draft, the entire state of Ohio is going to be on suicide watch.

Knowing that the Reds will finish in the bottom half of the division, the question remains who will take the crown. The World Series champs have been (somehow) overlooked, mostly because they lost a large chunk of their starting rotation. But since that chunk was Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver and Jason Marquis, I don’t think anyone should be too concerned, it’s not like they lost Clemens-Pettitte-Wells, as the 2004 Yankees did. Clearly the stiffest competition will come from the Cubs, and as long as Zambrano doesn’t fall apart after he signs his extension in the next week or so, they’re my pick to take the Central by a handful of games over St. Louis. Expect Milwaukee and Pittsburgh to be much improved, and Houston to struggle on the days that Roy Oswalt doesn’t pitch.

In La-La Land, the Dodgers upgraded in the rotation in the offseason, but should not have resigned Nomar, who is just blocking the path of stellar first base prospect James Loney. Still, they will be the best team in the NL West unless the Diamondbacks pitching stays healthy and productive all year (unlikely) or San Diego’s Kevin Kouzmanoff turns into the second coming of Mike Schmidt (possible). Colorado and San Francisco will be also-rans in a division that it may take 93 wins to take. 

For the NL Wild Card I’d like to pick the Cards. Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter are just too good to let the defending champs miss out on October, but they’ll have stiff competition. If the Phils really take out the Mets as I expect them to, it will take more than 95 wins. If the race is close and the Mets finish with 92-95, I don’t think the Cards will be able to get past them. The boys from Flushing are the pick.

Individual Awards

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
    He’s probably gone after this season regardless, don’t you think he wants to go out on a big year?

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, MIN
    There’s simply no one better, and he’ll have to be dominant since the rest of the Twins rotation looks like an audition for Major League 4.

AL Rookie: Alex Gordon, KC
    A new George Brett for the 21st century; if he’s half the player most are expecting there won’t be anyone close.

AL Manager: Eric Wedge, CLE
    In a make-or-break year, winning the tough Central will get Wedge the award and a contract extension.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols, STL
    It’s a crime that he has only one MVP Award, he’ll get his second this year.

NL Cy Young: Carlos Zambrano, CHI
    If he doesn’t get complacent after getting a fat contract (think Bartolo Colon), he’s got the stuff and the support to put up 20 wins and fantastic strikeout numbers.

NL Rookie: Josh Hamilton, CIN
    This would be a fantastic story, and Hamilton has been one of the most impressive players in baseball this spring. If he can keep it going and stay on the field all year he might win this one in a landslide.

NL Manager: Grady Little, LA
    Only 4 years after Pedro-gate, Little will taste sweet redemption, guiding the Dodgers to 95 wins and the NL West Crown.

Postseason Predictions:

ALDS
Yankees over Tigers
Angels over Indians

NLDS
Cubs over Phillies
Dodgers over Mets

ALCS
Yankees over Angels

NLCS
Dodgers over Cubs

World Series
Yankees over Dodgers

Those are my picks and I’m sticking to ‘em. Of course, being a senior editor I have the power to go back and change them should things not go the way I expect. But I would never do anything like that.

In addition to regular baseball columns, this year I’ll once again be running a baseball blog regularly (I hope), so keep your eyes on the upper right of ASM’s front page, for updates.