If you want to make a Portland Trail Blazer fan instantly cringe, just bring up the topic of the 1984 draft in conversation. That was the night most NBA fans remember as the one that changed the direction of two different franchises.

Portland held the number two pick in the entire draft and had a choice after Houston used the first pick on Akeem Olajuwan.  Trail Blazers management decided to take a forward from Kentucky named Sam Bowie.  The Bulls used the number three pick on Michael Jordan and the rest is history.

There was logic behind the Trail Blazer choice of Bowie over the more heralded Jordan.  In college, Jordan was seen as an athletic scorer and not much else.  For all anyone knew, he could have been like Vince Carter, a guy who could dunk, but couldn't be a primary ball handler.  Portland already had a young athletic scoring guard in Clyde Drexler and the last thing they wanted was two guys fighting over the ball every game.  So Trail Blazer management decided to go with a need pick and grabbed a big forward over Jordan.

The thought process makes sense, but it hardly provides Blazer fans with any comfort as they look at their trophy case that has been empty since 1977 while Chicago has one that is overflowing.  Bowie was constantly injured and eventually fell away from the league while Jordan began rewriting league history.

It's not even that the Blazers weren't good; they made it to the NBA Finals twice in the early 1990's.  The team just wasn't quite good enough.  That makes the 1984 draft blunder even more acute because look how good the Blazers were without Jordan.  Add Michael Jordan to a team that twice played for a championship and you have yourself a beastly team.

The 1984 draft gaffe is unfortunately the thing that defines a good Blazers organization over the past 20 years.  The team has a decent front office, a rabid fan base, and has been at the cusp of a championship twice.  Yet the first thing anyone talks about is the draft.  It's enough to turn a Blazer fan crazy obsessed ala Ray Finkle in the movie Ave Ventura (the laces were OUT!!!)

That brings us to 2007.  The Portland Trail Blazers won the first pick of the NBA Draft and will now have another choice to make.  Every person in the NBA agrees that the best player in this draft is between one of two players: Greg Oden of Ohio State and Kevin Durant of Texas.  When Portland announces their pick, they have a chance to finally bury the ghosts of 1984, or relive the nightmare all over again.  This time the nightmare would be even worse, however, because if Portland makes the wrong choice, the other player would go to Seattle.  The Sonics own the second pick in the draft and will undoubtedly take whichever guy Portland doesn't take.  That would mean that the Blazers would have to look at the player they could have taken several times every year as he plays for a division rival.  The stakes are high for the Portland faithful as the team tries to create a future and erase the past.

Nearly every NBA analyst thinks that the Blazers should take Oden with the first pick.  He's a legitimate center in a league that is sorely devoid of good ones.  Anyone who watched college basketball last season knows the impact Oden has near the basket both on offense and defense.  If Portland picks him, they will have a player that will force a defense to collapse inside leaving many a Blazer teammate open for easy jumpers.    On defense Oden's shot blocking skill will erase many defensive mistakes made at the perimeter.  In short, Portland will have an advantage at center over the vast majority of their opponents.  Logically, the Blazers have to pick Oden.

Of course, logic was in the decision to pick Bowie over Jordan.  Maybe the Blazers should look to get the proven scorer and athlete this time around.  That would be Durant.  He was one of many freshmen starting at Texas last year, yet he was the college basketball player of the year.  He has both an inside and outside game, he can score from anywhere on the court, and can still rebound when needed.  Defensively, he's not the monster that Oden is, but he can swat a ball or two.  It's hard not to compare him to Kevin Garnett in terms of skill set, but he has a better outside shot than K.G.  Durant would team with Brandon Roy to give Portland the two major scoring threats that nearly every championship team needs.  Plus, unlike Oden, Durant has no major history of injuries.

So which player do the Blazers pick to take them down the road to a championship and erase the pain of 1984?  The answer lies in what kind of basketball philosophy Portland wants to play with.  The Blazers currently have a young roster of up and coming players who all have specific skills.  If Portland picks Oden, it means that the team will employ a defense first philosophy similar to the San Antonio Spurs.  Oden would start at center and that would move 6'11" LaMarcus Aldridge, the second pick of last year's draft, over to power forward.  It would give the Blazers an incredible shot blocking duo and the team could use a "two towers" approach to the game the way San Antonio used David Robinson and Tim Duncan.  Brandon Roy would be the outside scoring threat that kept defenses honest which would allow both Aldridge and Oden to tear teams apart from the inside out.

The problem is that Roy would then be the only real perimeter threat.  The Blazers have other guys who can shoot, but Roy is the only one who can consistently create good shots for him and others.  Plus, current Blazer Zach Randolph would suddenly have no role on the team.  Randolph has averaged a double-double recently as an inside scoring threat.  If both Oden and Aldridge occupied the middle, the 6'9" 253 pound Randolph would be a man without a home.  He is too big to guard an athletic small forward on the perimeter and with Oden planted in the paint; Randolph would lose room for his inside game.  Portland could trade Randolph, but due to some character issues, they would not get equal value in return for him.

If the Blazers take Durant, then Aldridge would play center, Randolph could play power forward and use his inside game while Durant would take over the small forward position.  Offensively, the Blazers could be as dangerous as any team in the NBA.  Aldridge and Randolph would handle the inside scoring while Roy would handle the outside scoring.  Durant is versatile enough to tailor his game nightly to what is needed.  If Portland plays a team like Dallas that collapses the defense down near the basket, then Durant could have a field day shaking loose at the perimeter.  If Portland plays a quick perimeter team like Golden State, Durant would simply bring his man down near the basket and post up all night long.

The Blazers, however, would not have as good of a defense with Durant.  Aldridge is an athletic player, but not a particularly strong one and Randolph has never been known for his defense.  A bigger team could push the Blazers around on the interior and torture them with offensive rebounds.  It would tough not to wish for Oden some nights when Portland was getting beaten up inside.

If Portland wants the best defensive player available in the draft, they should pick Oden without question.  He will be a force in the paint for years to come.  If Portland wants a more polished player who fits in better with their current personnel, they should take Durant because he is a top scorer who can play one of three positions from night to night.

The 2007 NBA Draft will mark a watershed moment for the Portland Trail Blazers.  It could be looked on as either the moment that an organization finally buried a past mistake, or a day where the past came to haunt them once again.