
Randy Moss could help the Pats reassert their dominance over the division, the Thomas Jones trade has the Jets thinking they might take the East crown, and Buffalo and Miami might just plain stink, but you never know. Read on for the first installment of ASM's 8-day preview of the National Football League. Kevin Ezell, Andy Mindzak, Steve Schaefer, and Anthony Lopez break down the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills (2006: 7-9)
TWENTY QUESTIONS
by Kevin Ezell

WR Lee Evans is one of the few sure things on
Buffalo's depth chart
The Buffalo Bills enter the season with many questions surrounding them. Is J.P. Losman ready to step up and finally live up to expectations? Can the rookies such as Marshawn Lynch and Paul Posluszny step up and contribute right away? How will this defense survive after losing playmakers such as Nate Clements and London Fletcher?
Losman has continued to mature as a quarterback, and it looks like he is ready to take another step forward. He improved from 64.9 passer rating to 84.9 in 2006. Look for him and wide receiver Lee Evans to continue to have great success. Evans has emerged to become a premium receiver in the league, and he should only continue to grow should Losman develop at a faster pace. But Evans cannot be the only target; Josh Reed or Peerless Price need to take the next step and become a reliable target for Losman.
Lynch, the rookie tailback out of Cal, will need to contribute to the running game since the Bills lost former starter Willis McGahee to Baltimore. Lynch is a fast and elusive back who should be able to provide a break-away threat if the line create some holes for him. If the Bills can be successful on the ground, their offense should put up a lot of points this season.
The defense is the huge question mark for the Bills, who may have to outgun teams to have any chance. Clements signed a huge contract with the Niners during the offseason, leaving the Bills quite vulnerable in the secondary. Donte Whitner had a good rookie year at safety, and he will need to anchor the defense in the passing game. The play of the cornerbacks will be critical to the success of this defense.
Fletcher, the team's top tackler last season, is no longer with the Bills, and they will need Pozluszny to contribute right away to help fill this huge hole. The defensive line is anchored by Aaron Schobel, who had 14.5 sacks last year. He will need to continue to pressure the quarterback to help the thin secondary.
Do not expect too much from the Bills this year. The offense should be able to put up some points but they lost too many playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. Look for this defense to struggle to get off the field. I think the Bills are looking at a five or six win season this year.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
The offense develops into one of the most explosive in the NFL. The defensive unit has a lot of players step up and is able to create turnovers. It is possible for the Bills to sneak into the playoffs, but very unlikely.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
If Losman fails to continue to develop and the Bills fail to run the ball effectively, this team could only manage four wins. The offense will have to play well for this team to win some games because the defense will need time to come around.
Miami Dolphins (2006: 6-10)
SOMETHING’S FISHY IN THE STATE OF FLORIDAby Andrew Mindzak

The Dolphins need RB Ronnie Brown
to stay healthy and productive in '07
The 2006 Miami Dolphins came in 4th place in the AFC East. Unfortunately, there are only 4 teams in the division, so basically that’s Spanish for last place. They finished the season with a 6-10 record, nowhere near where people thought they would have finished up. They brought in Daunte Culpepper to cure their bad QB play, but his knee wasn’t ready for the challenge, so that meant Joey Harrington took the reigns for the rest of the way (my 3 year old cousin would have been equally productive). The outlook for the 2007 season in Miami is not as optimistic as it was a year ago, but they can certainly turn some heads this year if players stay healthy and out of trouble (*cough* Chris Chambers *cough*).
Some new faces in Miami start at the top with new head coach Cam Cameron, the former offensive coordinator from San Diego, who takes over after Nick Saban decided he wanted to go coach back in college. Thanks for coming, Nick. Newly acquired QB Trent Green is the new starter in town, and should be a nice improvement over their QB play from a year ago. New linebacker Joey Porter who was signed in the off season should make an immediate impact on their defense. First round pick Ted Ginn Jr. should spruce up their special teams nicely.
Offensively the Dolphins will look to rely on the run, with RB Ronnie Brown coming off a 1,008 yard season in 2006, even though he missed 3 games. Provided he can stay healthy, he should have a very solid year. Green has WR’s Chris Chambers and Marty Booker to throw to, and newly acquired TE David Martin will replace Randy McMichael. Miami put up 260 points in 2006, which was good enough for 29th in the league, so I would look for them to improve on that, mostly because it couldn’t get much worse (thank you, Cleveland).
Defensively, Miami is a solid unit. They were 5th in the NFL in points allowed, giving up a stingy 283 in ’06. They will only be better this year with the addition of Porter, and returning stars such as Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor (2006 NFL Defensive Player of the Year). I would expect another solid campaign defensively for the ‘Fins in ’07.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
This team could go 9-7, but it all depends on the health of Trent Green and Ronnie Brown. In a perfect world, they would also have RB Ricky Williams on their roster, giving them the best 2 headed attack this side of Denver. If Brown shakes the ‘fragile’ label, their defense can take care of the rest. They should start off 6-2 with wins against Washington, Jets, Oakland, Houston, Cleveland, and the Giants. Their 2nd half however, gets tricky with their likely wins coming against Buffalo, the Jets, and Philadelphia. They finish the season with games against Baltimore, New England, and Cincinnati, so if their in the hunt at the end, I would look for them to slip a little.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
The Fish should start off 6-2, but the 2nd half is where they have a more realistic shot to go 1-7 rather than 3-4. If the Eagles are healthy, they should beat Miami, and I don’t see Miami sweeping the Jets in the always tough AFC East. Miami will finish 7-9 under new coach Cam Cameron, but come talk to me in 2008, when Miami will finish 10-6.
New England Patriots (2006: 12-4)
THE MOSS IS GREENER ON THE OTHER SIDE
by Steve Schaefer

If Brady can keep his new receiving core happy,
the Pats might be Super again
The New England Patriots had a busy offseason. They signed receivers Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker, snatched standout linebacker Adalius Thomas from the Ravens, and are still dealing with the holdout of disgruntled cornerback Asante Samuel. All of that pales in comparison to the Pats biggest offseason move, which may determine exactly how deep into the postseason the team goes this year.
With only 42 catches and 3 touchdowns last year (both career lows), it stands to reason that Randy Moss can’t possibly take a step backward. With a significantly better collection of offensive weaponry around him, it seems the only thing that can prevent Moss from having a huge resurgence is his own huge ego.
During their current run of excellence, the Patriots have often made due with less talent than the competition, but the dedication to team play instilled by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady has carried them over more star-laden teams. Moss has never been confused with an unselfish superstar. In fact, his idea of teamwork might be having a threesome, but I digress.
This year, for the first time in his career, Brady has a big-time receiving corps (Moss, Stallworth, Reche Caldwell, Welker, and TE Ben Watson), and a solid running back (Laurence Maroney). Moss is notorious for wanting the ball, partly justified by his incredible talent to go get it once it’s up in the air. The biggest issue for Brady will be keeping Moss happy without sacrificing his unique ability to spread the ball all over the field regardless of the skill level of his receivers.
A happy Moss might be good for 12 touchdowns. An unhappy Moss has the potential to be just as disruptive as TO was to the Eagles two years ago. Being an unhappy superstar on a crappy team is easy. If Moss tries to put himself over the team in New England, it will be interesting to see how quickly Brady and Belichick are able to rein him in. Their season might be in the balance.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
Moss finds that it’s not so bad to get only 5 or 6 balls thrown his way each game, Brady continues to spread the ball around a much-improved offense, and Samuel ends his holdout and returns to bolster a thin secondary. With a content and productive Moss and a solid defensive year, the Pats take home yet another Super Bowl. This is horrible news for New York sports fans, especially since the Boston area already picked up Kevin Garnett and Eric Gagne today.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
Moss decides his talent warrants a look from Brady on every play and when he doesn’t have the numbers he expects by midseason he decides to air his grievances to Deion Sanders on a Sunday halftime show. Sanders, sensing discontent on the Pats offense, convinces Moss to go AWOL and takes advantage of the opportunity to return to the game and play both ways for New England. The Pats still win the Super Bowl.
New York Jets (2006: 10-6)
READY FOR TAKEOFF?by Anthony Lopez
Mangenius and the rest of Gang Green have Jet
fans thinking playoffs once again
Coming off a rebound season that saw them earn a playoff berth and usher in the Eric Mangini regime in New York, the Jets have high expectations coming into this 2007 season. Taking a fairly young team and molding his workmanlike attitude into a Wild Card playoff berth in his first year, Mangini instilled in the Jets a competitive fire that gained his players the reputation for being scrappy and playing until the final gun shot.
Now in Year 2, the Jets are more confident and also more talented on both sides of the ball. The offseason addition of former Bears’ running back Thomas Jones was a tremendous coup by the front office and certainly the stable workhorse the team was looking for after its running back trio of Leon Washington, Kevan Barlow and Cedric Houston was sufficient, but only good enough to place the them 20th overall in rushing offense in the league. With the Jets cutting their ties with Barlow, and Houston unexpectedly leaving the team for personal reasons, Jones, who signed a four-year $20 million deal, will come in ready to shoulder the load. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility to expect the speedy Washington to also provide some game-breaking agility out of the backfield. The 5-foot-8 rookie led the team in rushing last season after he ran for 650 yards and four touchdowns.
This upgrade in the backfield no doubt will embolden the play of quarterback Chad Pennington, who after being selected the 2006 Comeback Player of the Year, is healthy again and the undisputed starter. After shoulder surgery left people questioning if he could ever play the game again, Pennington rebounded with the efficiency that Jets fans have come to expect from the Marshall alum – a 64.5 completion percentage, and more importantly, a winning season in New York. With the maturation of wideout Jerricho Cotchery and the re-emergence of Laveranues Coles as one of the premier receivers in the league, the Jets may finally have found a steady one-two punch to lean on.
As for the line protecting Pennington, veteran lineman Pete Kendall is back in camp, despite his recent contract disputes with the front office. However, his availability or inability will not be the key this season. That onus falls on the maturity of tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold, who after solid rookie reasons, must be ready to elevate their games to the next level and live up to the first round hype that surrounded them. If the line can create lanes for Jones to run through, watch the play action happy Jets run wild.
Defensively Gang Green should continue to thrive in Mangini’s 3-4 schemes. With the emergence last season of playmakers such as safety Kerry Rhodes and linebacker Victor Hobson to go along with the ever sturdy Jonathan Vilma in the middle, the Jets defense is primed to be more coherent with a year of transition behind them. In the secondary, Rhodes will be accompanied by corners David Barrett, Andre Dyson, and the Pro-Bowl return man Justin Miller, who despite his off-season arrest for assault is still in the mix and has been praised by Mangini for his play thus far in camp. First-round pick Darrelle Revis, who continues to hold out and miss training camp, seems to be the biggest concern. Revis, whom the Jets traded up for with the 14th pick, was regarded as the best shutdown corner in the draft. The Jets took a gamble and traded for the Pitt star, and now he sits home idle, arguing over the length of his contract while falling further behind the learning curve and maybe falling further out of favor in the mind of his teammates and coaches.
On top of the Revis distraction, the team still hasn’t found a way to address the glaring weakness that is their pass rush, which still hasn’t improved despite a plethora of signings on the defensive line. The team was so desperate that they signed former Cardinal and first-round bust Andre Wadsworth to a contract. He hasn’t played football since 2002.
BEST CASE SCENARIO:
The Jets will be a serious contender in the AFC. However, considering the strength of the conference and the blockbuster upgrades made by the Patriots within their own division, it may be difficult to improve upon their 10-6 record from last season. Well-coached, and finally with a running game to boot, this figures to be a more talented group than last season, and they should see the playoffs via a wild card spot. If the Randy Moss experiment fails, they may even win the division, but I’m still not ready to say that Tom Brady isn’t the favorite going into a season. Their first four games will be huge tests. They open at home to Brady and New England, go to Baltimore to face the Ravens, back home for the Dolphins, and then back on the road to play another division rival in the Bills.
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
Chad gets injured and Jones can’t cut it in New York - Jets fans would be oh so used to the heartache. If those variables don’t occur, at worst they should finish no less than 8-8, which would be a huge disappointment considering their tremendous strides last season. Mangini is a great coach and should have the team competitive week in and week out, so a total collapse is something that shouldn’t be expected. However, it will be interesting to see how the holdouts and petty squabbles affect a team locker room that rarely has to deal with contractual battles.