Atomic Sports Media - http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com
NFL Preview: AFC West
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/879/1/NFL-Preview-AFC-West/Denver-Broncos-2006-9-7.html
The Editor
 
By The Editor
Published on 08/3/2007
 


With LDT running wild in the backfield, the Chargers are the team to beat once again in the AFC West. Jim Ludes, Andy Mindzak, Peter Doyle, and Matt Gardner break down the division.

Denver Broncos (2006: 9-7)
ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGHS (AND LOWS)
by Jim Ludes


Second-year QB Jay Cutler's play will be
a good indicator of Denver's record in '07

After uncharacteristically missing the playoffs a year ago at 9-7, Mike Shannahan’s Broncos head into this season under everyone’s radar. Last year’s team was mired in turmoil from the minute they traded up to draft Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler with the 11th pick. Despite his winning almost three of every four games in blue and orange, many clamored for the occasionally brain-dead gamer Jake Plummer to be immediately replaced by the young gunslinger. After tunneling to mediocrity, Shanny finally pulled the trigger -- though the Broncos fell an upset loss at home to the 49ers shy of a playoff berth. Real-life tragedy struck the Broncos in the offseason when cornerback Darrent Williams was slain on New Year’s Eve and running back Damian Nash succumbed to heart troubles mere weeks later.

Ask any casual fan of football and they will tell you that the Broncos are going to run the football. For the first time since trading Clinton Portis, Denver is going to suit up a back thought to be more than “just a guy” in Travis Henry. If they can successfully run the football, much pressure will be taken off Cutler, who will be making only his sixth career start on opening day. In acquiring Henry, Brandon Stokley and Daniel Graham, Denver wanted to add to Javon Walker, Rod Smith, and Brandon Marshall to make Cutler as comfortable as possible with a multitude of weapons.

Plummer took a ton of heat for the team’s less-than-rousing success last season, but a true observer will point out that Denver was absolutely atrocious in field position. Being at the bottom of average starting position won’t help put points on (or keep them off) the board. Denver will need to find someone in the return game to be, at least, average. Jason Elam continues his storied career (as storied as a kicker can get) and Todd Sauerbrun returns to punt.

Through six games last season, the Broncos defense was on record pace.  The team had only allowed 36 points and two touchdowns while going 5-1. Over the next 10 contests, the team only held an opponent to less than 20 points once (26 point average) and lost six games, costing defensive coordinator Larry Coyer his job. Long-time coordinator Jim Bates heads a defense that will convert D.J. Williams to middle linebacker replacing Al Wilson. The Broncos also fleeced the Detroit Lions by sending two guys that would have been cut in exchange for intercepting guru Dre’ Bly to play opposite all-world cornerback Champ Bailey.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
The Broncos have to contend, twice, with the league’s most talented team in the Chargers but also get that same benefit of playing the Raiders and a Chiefs team probably starting a first-year QB of their own. Aside from a road trip to Chicago, the Broncos get an average NFC North in “interleague play.” The Broncos host the Steelers and Jaguars while heading to Indy and Buffalo. A pretty favorable schedule should have Bronco fans thinking double-digit wins and a return to the postseason.


WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
Cutler flops, has a sophomore slump or gets hurt, and Patrick Ramsey ends up running the offense until the Broncos can “Indian-give” on their trade of Plummer to Tampa. He costs the team a first and a third but leads them to a 9-7 season and one blowout playoff loss.

 

Kansas City Chiefs (2006: 9-7)
WORKING CLASS HERO
by Andy Mindzak


Huard filled in well for the injured Green last season,
but can he do it all year?

The Chiefs finished their 2006 season 9-7 and made it to the playoffs, only to lose to eventual champion Indianapolis.  Still, they had a successful season when factoring in they lost their starting QB Trent Green for 9 games.  Damon Huard filled in admirably going 5-4 as their starter over that span.  The big question in 2007 will be whether Washington native Huard can be a successful starter for a whole season.

The Chiefs worked in the offseason to help out their defense by signing linebackers Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris to help out the young, very talented Derrick Johnson.  The only other notable change in Kansas City this offseason is the loss of Green who was traded to Miami which led to Huard taking over the starting role

Speaking of offense, the Chiefs offense can be summed up with 2 letters:  L.J.  Star running back Larry Johnson set an NFL record with 416 carries in 2006, so if there were any questions about his durability, they have all been answered.  The Chiefs in 2007 will be all about L.J. and rightfully so, but they also have Huard and future Hall of Famer TE Tony Gonzalez.  Their WR corps is thin as usual, but that hasn’t stopped them in the past.  Last year they scored 331 points, which was good enough for 15th in the NFL.

Defensively, the Chiefs had a solid year in 2006.  They surrendered 315 points which put them 11th overall.  Ty Law and Patrick Surtain lead their secondary, and 3rd year man Derrick Johnson leads the linebackers.

Looking ahead to Kansas City’s 2007 season outlook, it hinges on the play of Damon Huard more so than Larry Johnson.  We know what L.J. can do, but if Huard can step it up, the Chiefs will make some noise in 2007.
 
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
Looking over the Chiefs schedule, you can see them at 10-6.  They most likely will start off the season going 4-4, but then pour it on at the end, going 6-2, and let’s not forget that Kansas City is a beast at home.  If it gets close at the end, I like their chances of making the playoffs…their last 3 games are against Tennessee, Detroit, and the Jets.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
L.J. ends up on the shelf and the Chiefs lose a handful of games to teams other than San Diego and Denver. You would expect the Chiefs to struggle against those two clubs, but an injury to Johnson would mean they’d be lucky to get 6-7 wins.
 

Oakland Raiders (2006: 2-14)
CLEANING SOME TARNISH FROM THE SILVER AND BLACK
by Peter Doyle


A lot can go wrong for the Raiders in '07;
fortunately Art Shell's coaching won't
be part of it

Its not an oversimplification to say that the Raiders are a complete mess.  They haven’t had a winning season since 2002, bottoming out with a league-worst 2-14 in 2006.  The offense was non-existent last year as the team scored 43 fewer points than the next-worse team, the perpetually offensively-challenged Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The team jettisoned their one true offensive superstar, malcontent Randy Moss, for a fourth-round pick.  A few things have changed for the better, but not enough to make the Raiders a playoff contender.

When you have to cite an easier schedule as one of the highlights for a team, you know things are bad.  Oakland’s non-division schedule includes only two teams with winning records in ‘06, the Bears and the Colts.   Their other non-divisional opponents were a combined 49-79 last season, giving the Raiders a shot at knocking off a few teams.  Of course, Oakland also plays in the League’s toughest division, which basically starts them off at 0-6. During last season’s five losses to start the season, Al Davis’s glory-days-link, Art Shell, looked like a deer in headlights, then basically picked up his check each week as the season cratered following their only two wins in weeks 6 and 7.   This year, Davis dumped Shell and brought in Lane Kiffen, a 31-year-old coaching prodigy who helped direct the USC offensive juggernaut.  Given some weapons and time, Kiffen should be able to resurrect the traditional Raider stretch-the-field offense.  For this year, Kiffen has the advantage of taking over a team with low expectations and nowhere to go but up, so the Raider Nation will be ecstatic with any improvement.

The other advantage of being really bad is getting the first pick in the draft.   With that pick, the Raiders chose JaMarcus Russell, the cannon-armed QB from LSU.  Following the Vince Young blueprint created by the Titans last year, the Raiders also traded for Josh McCown to start the first half of the season or until Russell is ready.   Of course, Russell has to be at practice to get ready.  As of press time, he had not signed yet and was expected to miss the start of training camp, not a great start for a 21-year-old, QB.  ESPN’s John Clayton is saying that the two sides are no closer than before the draft.  The Raiders have even resorted to giving Miami cast-off Daunte Culpepper an audition. Given the state of the Raiders offensive line, keeping Russell off the field might actually be the wisest course of action. The Raiders used five of their first six picks to draft offensive players, but only one offensive lineman.  The o-line gave up 72 sacks in ’06, 18 more than any other AFC squad and lost its best pass-blocker, Langston Walker to the Bills.  The Raiders plan to shift veteran LT Robert Gallery to the right hand side and change to a zone blocking scheme in an effort to give the skill players some breathing room.

With all of these changes to a line that was the worst in the league, the first half of the year could be hazardous to whoever is playing QB.  If the line manages to improve its play and allow McCown or Russell to get off a few throws, the ball will most often be directed toward former outcast, Jerry Porter.  Porter, who averaged 70 catches, 970 yards and 7 TD’s in ‘04 and ’05, was suspended or benched for virtually all of last season as a result of a feud with Art Shell.  With Shell gone and Randy Moss traded, the Raiders are giving Porter the opportunity to become the go-to guy.  Ronald Curry, who as the default primary guy last season, caught 62  for 727 yards but only 1 TD, will man the other side.  Mike Williams, the #10 pick overall in 2005, and a bust in 2 years with Detroit, was acquired with McCown and could provide a surprise lift if given some time. If Porter and Curry are able to stretch the field, it will open up things for 2nd round pick, Zach Miller, a 3-time all Pac-10 tight end from Arizona State.  To help out the equally pitiful running game, the Raiders signed free agent Dominick Rhodes from the Colts and drafted highly-rated Michael Bush from Louisville to compliment Lamont Jordan.  Fitting right in with the Oakland outlaw image, Rhodes was suspended for the first four games for substance abuse.  IF the passing game shows some life, opponents will be less able to stack the box against the run.  With Jordan, Bush, and eventually Rhodes, exposed to daylight for the first time in a year, the Raiders should significantly increase their paltry 94.9 rushing yards per game average.

The defense was the strength of the Raiders of the season last year and with all 11 starters back and the addition of Donovin Darius from the Jaguars, they will be even better this year..  The Raiders D ranked 1st against the pass and 3rd overall.  The rankings are a little misleading because teams were usually ahead of the Raiders early and therefore ran the ball more often.  Even so, the defense, led by a resurgent Warren Sapp and pro-bowler Derrick Burgess, who has had 26 sacks over the last two years, kept the Raiders in games.  The addition of Darius as a run-stuffer to a young secondary will give defensive coordinator Bob Ryan more flexibility for a team ranked 25th against the run. The kicking game remains stable with punter Shane Lechler and kicker Sebastian Janikowski.  Once again, the defense will have to win games for the Silver and Black, but they may have a few more points from the offense to work with.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
The offensive line improves to average, Russell signs sooner than expected and the defense gets even better.  During the second half, the Raiders spring Russell and Rhodes on unsuspecting opponents and rally to finish 5-11. The Raiders then pick up OT Jake Long from Michigan with the sixth pick in the 2008 draft. .  The Raiders young coaching staff and talent follow that up with a wild card playoff berth in 2008.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
Russell holds out into the regular season and never plays, Porter is not as good as he thinks he is, the offensive line is even more inept learning a new blocking scheme and living statue Daunte Culpepper steps in for an injured McCown and gets sacked on his first 3 plays.  The defense gets tired of carrying the offense and mails in the second half.  The Raiders go 2-14 again and get the 1st pick in the draft and use it to take running back Darren McFadden from Arkansas instead of trading down to get two or three of huge number of highly-rated offensive lineman in next year’s draft.

San Diego Chargers (2006: 14-2)
CREAM OF THE CROP
by Matt Gardner


Even having Norv Turner as head coach can't
screw up this team...or can it?

The Chargers were a pleasure to watch last season, and their random collapse in front of the Patriots seemed baffling. So baffling, in fact, that they did one better in the bafflement stakes by firing former NFL Coach of the Year Marty Schottenheimer. This is possibly the thing that strikes most people as the make-or-break tactic employed by the historically unsuccessful Chargers. Will it move them forward, or back?

Although this may scare many Southern California fans, one cannot hide the strength of the team that new coach Norv Turner, fresh from the offensive coordinator's job with the 49ers, has to play with. Ten players, including OLB Shawne Merriman, TE Antonio Gates, K Nate Kaeding and LT Marcus McNeil made the Pro Bowl (more than any other team last season), and the offensive coaching background of Turner may be crying with laughter at the options he has in front of him.

Of course, no Chargers preview would be complete without a special mention for the visor-wearing hero that is the 2006 NFL MVP, LaDainian Tomlinson. The former TCU running back smashed records like he did defenses, including 31 touchdowns in one season, 28 of those being rushing TDs, and 186 points scored. His speed and strength in his role seem unmatched, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he broke all of his own records this year.

Philip Rivers' season was marred by the injury that forced him out of the Pro Bowl and may worry fans into thinking he may be injury prone. But when you're surrounded by superstars on the offense, you could really have anyone there who has some semblance of ball-throwing ability. People should give him his due, though; his fourth-quarter comeback rate was the best in the NFL last season, so pressure isn't something that gets to him.

This pressure seemingly gets to the defense and receivers though, as seen in their shocking, last-gasp loss to the Patriots in the Divisional playoffs. With Wade Phillips at the Dallas Cowboys and veteran Ted Cottrell calling the shots, the latter must emulate the former to keep the defense strong. Although it has a near-perfect line and linebacker set, the latter parts of the depth chart and their secondary may trouble the back of Cottrell's mind should injuries occur.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
Chargers use their resources fully and simply win Superbowl XLII, doing what they should have done the season before.


WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
Errors at the beginning of the season, and perhaps a couple of losses, lead the Chargers to revolt in the locker room against their new coach and constantly compare matters present to their old coach, Schottenheimer. With the Chargers setting an NFL-best 14-2 season previous, this team has a lot to live up to.