NFL Preview: NFC South
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/889/1/NFL-Preview-NFC-South/Atlanta-Falcons-2006-7-9.html
The Editor
By The Editor
Published on 08/15/2007
The NFC South is a truly confusing division. Home to one arguably the best (the New Orleans Saints) and worst (Michael Vick's dogfighting case) stories in the NFL over the past year, it's hard to get a true read on the division. Andy Mindzak, Kevin Ezell, and Steve Michalovich offer up their previews of the Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Bucs as ASM's NFL Preview winds down.
The NFC South is a truly confusing division. Home to one arguably the best (the New Orleans Saints) and worst (Michael Vick's dogfighting case) stories in the NFL over the past year, it's hard to get a true read on the division. Andy Mindzak, Kevin Ezell, and Steve Michalovich offer up their previews of the Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Bucs as ASM's NFL Preview winds down.
Atlanta Falcons (2006: 7-9)
SAY IT AIN'T SO
by Andy Mindzak
With Michael Vick's status very much in doubt,
the Falcons will be depending on Joey Harrington
to lead their offense.....UH-OH!
The Atlanta Falcons finished a disappointing 7-9 in 2006, and thought that 2007 would bring better fortunes. Boy, were they wrong! The mess that was created by Michael Vick and his canine WWE this offseason has taken the focus off the team and put it on Vick and his pending trial (or plea deal). Now, I’m not a gambling man (seriously, I don’t have a problem) but I would wager that new head coach Bobby Petrino was not expecting a situation like this in his first season as in Atlanta. Something tells me Atlanta execs are kicking themselves for dealing backup Matt Schaub.
Petrino and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who led the Cowboys defense in the mid to late 90’s, are just two of the many new faces in Atlanta this season. To replace backup Schaub, the Falcons went out and got Joey Harrington (I’m sure Miami was broken up about him leaving). As it turns out, Harrington will be the starter, unless Vick is somehow proven innocent and is eligible to play. At press time of this article, he is still banned from even being at the Falcons training camp. Atlanta added WR Joe Horn from New Orleans to hopefully be a boost to a lackluster receiving corps. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons lost DE Patrick Kerney to Seattle and his presence will be sorely missed up front.
Offensively the Falcons ranked #1 running the ball, averaging 183.7 yards per game. Unfortunately, the passing offense was the polar opposite, averaging 148.2 yards per game, and overall their offense ranked 25th in the NFL with 292 points (so maybe Vick won’t be missed all that much). Harrington will now lead the Falcons new-look offense under Petrino (ok, so maybe Vick will be missed), and if all goes according to plan, he should just give the ball to RB Warrick Dunn all game. Tight end Alge Crumpler remains Atlanta’s #1 pass catching threat, as he hauled in 56 balls last year, which were 26 more than their top WR. Wide outs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White couldn’t catch crabs from a $2 hooker (insert Ron Mexico joke here), so the team is hoping Horn can recover some of his old magic. Maybe if the higher-ups act now, they can just say, ‘Hey we were kidding about the whole trading Matt Schaub thing.’ Ok, maybe not.
Defensively, the Falcons are a solid unit. They ranked 15th overall, giving up 328 points in 2006, but DE John Abraham missed most of the year with a groin injury. If healthy, Abraham will be a big force up front, and safety Lawyer Milloy shores up a secondary led by cornerback DeAngelo Hall. Rookie Jamaal Anderson from Arkansas will look to replace Kerney at DE, which will not be an easy task. Overall, the Atlanta defense will remain right in the middle of the NFL pack, and should hold up quite well.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
When you have Harrington under center, your best case scenario might be putting him back on the bench. Atlanta plays Houston, Tennessee, Tampa Bay (twice) and Arizona should prove solid shots at wins for the Falcons, but I wouldn’t expect anything better than 8-8.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
The coaching staff keeps Harrington as the starter. I would see Atlanta finishing up around 6-10, which seems the more likely scenario. Playing 2 games each against New Orleans and Carolina, and also games against Minnesota, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Seattle would not bode well for any team, let alone a Harrington-led team (or Vick for that matter). Atlanta will be dogs for most of the 2007 season (no pun intended…ok, so maybe it was intended, but someone had to say it).
by Andy Mindzak
With Michael Vick's status very much in doubt,
the Falcons will be depending on Joey Harrington
to lead their offense.....UH-OH!
The Atlanta Falcons finished a disappointing 7-9 in 2006, and thought that 2007 would bring better fortunes. Boy, were they wrong! The mess that was created by Michael Vick and his canine WWE this offseason has taken the focus off the team and put it on Vick and his pending trial (or plea deal). Now, I’m not a gambling man (seriously, I don’t have a problem) but I would wager that new head coach Bobby Petrino was not expecting a situation like this in his first season as in Atlanta. Something tells me Atlanta execs are kicking themselves for dealing backup Matt Schaub.
Petrino and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who led the Cowboys defense in the mid to late 90’s, are just two of the many new faces in Atlanta this season. To replace backup Schaub, the Falcons went out and got Joey Harrington (I’m sure Miami was broken up about him leaving). As it turns out, Harrington will be the starter, unless Vick is somehow proven innocent and is eligible to play. At press time of this article, he is still banned from even being at the Falcons training camp. Atlanta added WR Joe Horn from New Orleans to hopefully be a boost to a lackluster receiving corps. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons lost DE Patrick Kerney to Seattle and his presence will be sorely missed up front.
Offensively the Falcons ranked #1 running the ball, averaging 183.7 yards per game. Unfortunately, the passing offense was the polar opposite, averaging 148.2 yards per game, and overall their offense ranked 25th in the NFL with 292 points (so maybe Vick won’t be missed all that much). Harrington will now lead the Falcons new-look offense under Petrino (ok, so maybe Vick will be missed), and if all goes according to plan, he should just give the ball to RB Warrick Dunn all game. Tight end Alge Crumpler remains Atlanta’s #1 pass catching threat, as he hauled in 56 balls last year, which were 26 more than their top WR. Wide outs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White couldn’t catch crabs from a $2 hooker (insert Ron Mexico joke here), so the team is hoping Horn can recover some of his old magic. Maybe if the higher-ups act now, they can just say, ‘Hey we were kidding about the whole trading Matt Schaub thing.’ Ok, maybe not.
Defensively, the Falcons are a solid unit. They ranked 15th overall, giving up 328 points in 2006, but DE John Abraham missed most of the year with a groin injury. If healthy, Abraham will be a big force up front, and safety Lawyer Milloy shores up a secondary led by cornerback DeAngelo Hall. Rookie Jamaal Anderson from Arkansas will look to replace Kerney at DE, which will not be an easy task. Overall, the Atlanta defense will remain right in the middle of the NFL pack, and should hold up quite well.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
When you have Harrington under center, your best case scenario might be putting him back on the bench. Atlanta plays Houston, Tennessee, Tampa Bay (twice) and Arizona should prove solid shots at wins for the Falcons, but I wouldn’t expect anything better than 8-8.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
The coaching staff keeps Harrington as the starter. I would see Atlanta finishing up around 6-10, which seems the more likely scenario. Playing 2 games each against New Orleans and Carolina, and also games against Minnesota, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Seattle would not bode well for any team, let alone a Harrington-led team (or Vick for that matter). Atlanta will be dogs for most of the 2007 season (no pun intended…ok, so maybe it was intended, but someone had to say it).
Carolina Panthers (2006: 8-8)
STEVE'S WORLD
by Andy Mindzak
Even hampered by a leg injury, Smith was one of
the NFL's best wideouts in '06
The Carolina Panthers finished a disappointing 8-8 in 2006. Many had expected them to be much better than that; some had them down as preseason Super Bowl contenders. That optimism returns in 2007, with hopes still high down south. The Panthers' schedule seems lined up for a good run at the playoffs this year, and the talent is still there on both sides of the ball. I would look for Carolina to finally reach their potential this year.
The new faces in Carolina start with back up QB David Carr. He was very well acquainted with the turf down in Houston, as he was sacked more than any other QB in the last 5 years (249 times!!!!!). He gives Carolina a very nice insurance policy in case starter Jake Delhomme has a bout with injury or ineffectiveness. Another new face is draft pick and former USC wideout Dwayne Jarrett. He will be a nice compliment to All-Pro WR Steve Smith.
Offensively, the Panthers ranked 27th in the league last year, putting up only 270 points. Jake Delhomme had an average year, but the big disappointment came in the running game, as injuries plagued DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. We can pretty much assume Steve Smith will go off again this year. I would look for Jarrett to put up solid numbers opposite Smith.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers ranked 8th in the NFL, and gave up only 305 points. They have a solid corps of defenders that will keep them in games all year. Julius Peppers who led the team with 13 sacks returns to lead this top notch defense. Corner back Chris Gamble, who tied for the team lead with 3 interceptions in 2006, returns to show the way in 2007. If Mike Rucker can stay healthy, this Panther defense will eat teams up all year.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
The Panthers could conceivably go 12-4. They play Atlanta and Tampa Bay twice, and games against Houston, Arizona, Tennessee, Green Bay, and San Francisco should be solid wins for them. If they remain healthy, they are without a doubt, one of the best teams in all of the NFL. They can put up points with the best of them, and then shut you down on defense.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
Injuries plague Carolina yet again. If they cannot get their running game moving along, they will wind up falling to 8-8 like they did in 2006. Two games against New Orleans, and then games against Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Seattle and Dallas will be tough tests for this Panther team. Overall, I would put the Panthers at 10-6 this year, and see how far they go in the playoffs.
by Andy Mindzak
Even hampered by a leg injury, Smith was one of
the NFL's best wideouts in '06
The Carolina Panthers finished a disappointing 8-8 in 2006. Many had expected them to be much better than that; some had them down as preseason Super Bowl contenders. That optimism returns in 2007, with hopes still high down south. The Panthers' schedule seems lined up for a good run at the playoffs this year, and the talent is still there on both sides of the ball. I would look for Carolina to finally reach their potential this year.
The new faces in Carolina start with back up QB David Carr. He was very well acquainted with the turf down in Houston, as he was sacked more than any other QB in the last 5 years (249 times!!!!!). He gives Carolina a very nice insurance policy in case starter Jake Delhomme has a bout with injury or ineffectiveness. Another new face is draft pick and former USC wideout Dwayne Jarrett. He will be a nice compliment to All-Pro WR Steve Smith.
Offensively, the Panthers ranked 27th in the league last year, putting up only 270 points. Jake Delhomme had an average year, but the big disappointment came in the running game, as injuries plagued DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. We can pretty much assume Steve Smith will go off again this year. I would look for Jarrett to put up solid numbers opposite Smith.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers ranked 8th in the NFL, and gave up only 305 points. They have a solid corps of defenders that will keep them in games all year. Julius Peppers who led the team with 13 sacks returns to lead this top notch defense. Corner back Chris Gamble, who tied for the team lead with 3 interceptions in 2006, returns to show the way in 2007. If Mike Rucker can stay healthy, this Panther defense will eat teams up all year.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
The Panthers could conceivably go 12-4. They play Atlanta and Tampa Bay twice, and games against Houston, Arizona, Tennessee, Green Bay, and San Francisco should be solid wins for them. If they remain healthy, they are without a doubt, one of the best teams in all of the NFL. They can put up points with the best of them, and then shut you down on defense.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
Injuries plague Carolina yet again. If they cannot get their running game moving along, they will wind up falling to 8-8 like they did in 2006. Two games against New Orleans, and then games against Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Seattle and Dallas will be tough tests for this Panther team. Overall, I would put the Panthers at 10-6 this year, and see how far they go in the playoffs.
New Orleans Saints (2006: 10-6)
SURPRISING SAINTS NOW THE FAVORITE
by Kevin Ezell
Everybody in America is excited to see what this Bush has in store for
his second term
The New Orleans Saints were a big surprise last season, making it all the way to the NFC championship game. After New Orleans sustained the horrible natural disaster, Hurricane Katrina, the Saints were able to rally a whole nation as they made an improbable run after years of mediocrity. This year they are one of the frontrunners in the NFC to make it to the Super Bowl.
Head coach Sean Payton did an excellent job assembling an explosive offense during his first year with the Saints in 2006. Drew Brees had a Pro Bowl year and rookie Reggie Bush added an explosive element that is lacking on most NFL teams. Even more surprising was the emergence of New Orleans’ seventh-round draft selection, wide receiver Marques Colston, who will start the year as the team's No. 1 receiver.
The Saints possess one of the best offenses in the NFL. Brees threw for almost 4,500 yards last year, along with 26 touchdowns. He has two very talented running backs behind him in Bush and Deuce McAllister. Bush struggled rushing the ball last year, but with another year under his belt he should have better vision. But Bush did not struggle catching the ball out of the backfield for more than 700 yards 2006, making him a particularly dangerous weapon. Coltson will be the leader of a strong receiving core. The Saints did lose longtime standout Joe Horn, but they drafted former Tennessee receiver Robert Meachem to sure up the passing game.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints still have room for improvement. Will Smith provides a viable threat to rush the passer after racking up almost 11 sacks last year, but they will need help from players such as Charles Grant to step up and put more pressure on the quarterback.
The Saints gave up almost 130 yards per game on the ground last year, and the linebackers will have to improve to help stop the run. The defense did not have a single player with more than 100 tackles last year and any dominant linebacker will get that easily in one year. The Saints did rank third in the league last year in pass defense, so they will be looking to continue that success.
The Saints also have the benefit of playing in a division where they are the clear favorite. The absence of Michael Vick will hurt the Atlanta Falcons, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled recently and enter the season with some significant question marks. The Saints biggest challenge will be the Carolina Panthers.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
This team is one of the favorites in the NFC, and it is with good cause. The Saints can move the ball, and against most teams they will be able to move the ball at will. They possess an offense that can play some power football if need be but also possess the ability to score fast with stars such as Bush. If this team plays to its potential and ability, they should be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
Luckily for the Saints, they reside in the inferior NFC. Even if the Saints do manage to struggle a bit, they’re probably still headed to the playoffs. This team should be a lock to win at least nine or 10 games. The only factor would be an injury to Brees, because he is the most important player on this team.
by Kevin Ezell
Everybody in America is excited to see what this Bush has in store for
his second term
The New Orleans Saints were a big surprise last season, making it all the way to the NFC championship game. After New Orleans sustained the horrible natural disaster, Hurricane Katrina, the Saints were able to rally a whole nation as they made an improbable run after years of mediocrity. This year they are one of the frontrunners in the NFC to make it to the Super Bowl.
Head coach Sean Payton did an excellent job assembling an explosive offense during his first year with the Saints in 2006. Drew Brees had a Pro Bowl year and rookie Reggie Bush added an explosive element that is lacking on most NFL teams. Even more surprising was the emergence of New Orleans’ seventh-round draft selection, wide receiver Marques Colston, who will start the year as the team's No. 1 receiver.
The Saints possess one of the best offenses in the NFL. Brees threw for almost 4,500 yards last year, along with 26 touchdowns. He has two very talented running backs behind him in Bush and Deuce McAllister. Bush struggled rushing the ball last year, but with another year under his belt he should have better vision. But Bush did not struggle catching the ball out of the backfield for more than 700 yards 2006, making him a particularly dangerous weapon. Coltson will be the leader of a strong receiving core. The Saints did lose longtime standout Joe Horn, but they drafted former Tennessee receiver Robert Meachem to sure up the passing game.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints still have room for improvement. Will Smith provides a viable threat to rush the passer after racking up almost 11 sacks last year, but they will need help from players such as Charles Grant to step up and put more pressure on the quarterback.
The Saints gave up almost 130 yards per game on the ground last year, and the linebackers will have to improve to help stop the run. The defense did not have a single player with more than 100 tackles last year and any dominant linebacker will get that easily in one year. The Saints did rank third in the league last year in pass defense, so they will be looking to continue that success.
The Saints also have the benefit of playing in a division where they are the clear favorite. The absence of Michael Vick will hurt the Atlanta Falcons, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled recently and enter the season with some significant question marks. The Saints biggest challenge will be the Carolina Panthers.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
This team is one of the favorites in the NFC, and it is with good cause. The Saints can move the ball, and against most teams they will be able to move the ball at will. They possess an offense that can play some power football if need be but also possess the ability to score fast with stars such as Bush. If this team plays to its potential and ability, they should be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
Luckily for the Saints, they reside in the inferior NFC. Even if the Saints do manage to struggle a bit, they’re probably still headed to the playoffs. This team should be a lock to win at least nine or 10 games. The only factor would be an injury to Brees, because he is the most important player on this team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2006: 4-12)
CHUCKY'S LAST CHANCE?
by Steve Michalovich
Gruden might need a 2007 playoff berth to keep his job in Tampa Bay
Since winning the Super Bowl in 2003, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have slid from the elite (or what could be considered elite) NFC teams. With an aging defense and lack of identity on offense, more of the blame should be put on Jon Gruden. Once regarded as one of the best coaches in football, Gruden is now on the hot seat, and another sub par season could have him looking for employment.
Prior to Gruden’s appointment as head coach, Tony Dungy built the Buccaneers from a consistently struggling franchise into a cohesive unit built around one of the best defenses in the game. Gruden, in his first season, lead the team Dungy had built to a Super Bowl win. Not to mention that they played the Oakland Raiders in the game – Gruden’s former team. Gruden’s defense appeared at times throughout the game to know what exact play Oakland was calling. Since that game, the team has been mediocre at best. This could be the season that the Buccs make one last run with a veteran group or they turn the page to the future, possibly without Gruden.
A football team begins with the quarterback position. If that’s the case, Tampa Bay will begin with an assortment of options at this position, with none locking up the current job or even the future one. Thirty-seven-year-old Jeff Garcia is the most likely candidate to start the season at QB. He fits the mold of a Gruden quarterback because he is mobile and makes smart choices. He found success in Philadelphia after most teams said he was done. Also in the pack are Chris Simms, Luke McCown and Brad Gradkowski – all of whom could either be the franchise quarterback this team has never had or a career backup. Regardless, the quarterback situation is anything but sorted out.
Cadillac Williams got bitten by the sophomore slump as his stats in his second year were no where near as good as two seasons ago. In his defense, he was running behind a patchwork offensive line and there was no consistency at quarterback. Joey Galloway is as good as they come at the ripe age of 35, but Michael Clayton has been inconsistent since Tampa Bay selected him in the first round. Galloway has been a saving grace for this team by giving this team a downfield threat.
The days may be over for Tampa Bay’s elite status on the defensive side of the ball. Last season was the first in ten years that Tampa Bay’s defense was not ranked in the top ten in football. And they will try to bounce back without the anchor of their defense – Simeon Rice. They still have the majority of their defensive foundation, which includes Shelton Quarles, Derrick Brooks, Greg Spires, Ronde Barber, and Brian Kelly. Rookie defensive end Gaines Adams joins the pack and will be expected to fill Rice’s shoes.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
11-5. The Panthers and Falcons are taking steps back, and the Saints are unproven as Tampa Bay captures the division. Jeff Garcia shows that he still has the fire in him to win, and the defense bounces back for another run at a Super Bowl. Additionally, Gruden is the coach of the year.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
3-13. Garcia is ineffective and the entourage behind him on the depth chart can’t hang with Gruden’s high-passing offense. It becomes clear that the once elite defensive unit needs an overhaul. And most disheartening, Gruden’s coaching ability and keen sense for the game are questioned as he is shown the door.
by Steve Michalovich
Gruden might need a 2007 playoff berth to keep his job in Tampa Bay
Since winning the Super Bowl in 2003, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have slid from the elite (or what could be considered elite) NFC teams. With an aging defense and lack of identity on offense, more of the blame should be put on Jon Gruden. Once regarded as one of the best coaches in football, Gruden is now on the hot seat, and another sub par season could have him looking for employment.
Prior to Gruden’s appointment as head coach, Tony Dungy built the Buccaneers from a consistently struggling franchise into a cohesive unit built around one of the best defenses in the game. Gruden, in his first season, lead the team Dungy had built to a Super Bowl win. Not to mention that they played the Oakland Raiders in the game – Gruden’s former team. Gruden’s defense appeared at times throughout the game to know what exact play Oakland was calling. Since that game, the team has been mediocre at best. This could be the season that the Buccs make one last run with a veteran group or they turn the page to the future, possibly without Gruden.
A football team begins with the quarterback position. If that’s the case, Tampa Bay will begin with an assortment of options at this position, with none locking up the current job or even the future one. Thirty-seven-year-old Jeff Garcia is the most likely candidate to start the season at QB. He fits the mold of a Gruden quarterback because he is mobile and makes smart choices. He found success in Philadelphia after most teams said he was done. Also in the pack are Chris Simms, Luke McCown and Brad Gradkowski – all of whom could either be the franchise quarterback this team has never had or a career backup. Regardless, the quarterback situation is anything but sorted out.
Cadillac Williams got bitten by the sophomore slump as his stats in his second year were no where near as good as two seasons ago. In his defense, he was running behind a patchwork offensive line and there was no consistency at quarterback. Joey Galloway is as good as they come at the ripe age of 35, but Michael Clayton has been inconsistent since Tampa Bay selected him in the first round. Galloway has been a saving grace for this team by giving this team a downfield threat.
The days may be over for Tampa Bay’s elite status on the defensive side of the ball. Last season was the first in ten years that Tampa Bay’s defense was not ranked in the top ten in football. And they will try to bounce back without the anchor of their defense – Simeon Rice. They still have the majority of their defensive foundation, which includes Shelton Quarles, Derrick Brooks, Greg Spires, Ronde Barber, and Brian Kelly. Rookie defensive end Gaines Adams joins the pack and will be expected to fill Rice’s shoes.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO:
11-5. The Panthers and Falcons are taking steps back, and the Saints are unproven as Tampa Bay captures the division. Jeff Garcia shows that he still has the fire in him to win, and the defense bounces back for another run at a Super Bowl. Additionally, Gruden is the coach of the year.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
3-13. Garcia is ineffective and the entourage behind him on the depth chart can’t hang with Gruden’s high-passing offense. It becomes clear that the once elite defensive unit needs an overhaul. And most disheartening, Gruden’s coaching ability and keen sense for the game are questioned as he is shown the door.