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ASM Fantasy Football: The Draft
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/895/1/ASM-Fantasy-Football-The-Draft/ASM-Fantasy-Football-The-Draft.html
David Hale
David is a graduate of the University of Delaware and has a masters from  Syracuse University in journalism. He has covered sports for a number of   newspapers throughout the country and currently works as a freelance writer in Lexington, Kentucky.

David is a life-long fan of the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Eagles, 
which he believes may be at the root of every bad thing that has ever  happened to him. His heroes include Ernest Hemingway, Mark Grace and  the entire cast of "The Hills."

He is widely credited as the inventor  of the piano-key necktie, celebrates Michael Bolton's entire  catalogue, and enjoys skinny skiing and going to bull fights on acid.  His favorite color is green, his favorite hobby is sleeping, and his  favorite performance-enhancing drug is Red Bull-and-vodka.

 
By David Hale
Published on 08/27/2007
 


Ok, so it wasn't the most spectacular of drafts. No Roger Goodell waltzing to the podium. No ESPN cameras to capture the festivities. No Brady Quinn fighting back tears until John McCabe selected him with the 156th pick. Heck, we even had some auto drafters. But the results were enlightening, as Atomic Sports columnist David Hale writes in this recap.

ASM Fantasy Football: The Draft
Atomic Sports held its fantasy football draft on August 19 using ESPN.com’s on-line draft tool. Here are the results:

(You can CLICK HERE to check out ASM's owner profiles first or simply skip ahead to read their comments by CLICKING HERE)

ROUND ONE

1. Jon Bellwood - LaDainian Tomlinson (RB)
2. David Hale - Steven Jackson (RB)
3. Vaughn Hines - Shaun Alexander (RB)   
4. Nic Wood - Larry Johnson (RB)
5. Adam Lefkoe - Frank Gore (RB)
6. Jim Ludes - Joseph Addai (RB)
7. Andy Mindzak - Rudi Johnson (RB)
8. Steve Schaefer - Peyton Manning (QB)
9. Nate Carlile - Laurence Maroney (RB)
10. Josh Binstock - Willie Parker (RB)
11. Pete Giordano - Brian Westbrook (RB)
12. John McCabe - Reggie Bush (RB)

Through all the fantasy magazines I’ve read, all the mock drafts I’ve done and all the other leagues I play in, no non-running back other than Peyton Manning has been selected in the first round. ASM’s draft wasn’t any different, as 11 tailbacks and the world’s best quarterback made up round one. The only real surprises were Alexander, who has been going 4-6 in many drafts, edging out Johnson and Gore, and Maroney being selected before Westbrook, Bush, McGahee and Henry – all of whom have been listed higher by many experts.

ROUND TWO

13. John – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB)
14. Pete – Ronnie Brown (RB)
15. Josh – Willis McGahee (RB)
16. Nate – Carson Palmer (QB)
17. Steve – Travis Henry (RB)
18. Andy – Marvin Harrison (WR)
19. Jim – Cedric Benson (RB)
20. Adam – Steve Smith (WR)
21. Nic – Chad Johnson (WR)
22. Vaughn – Drew Brees (QB)
23. David – Torry Holt (WR)
24. Jon – Deuce McAllister (RB)

Round two was more of the same, with another six running backs off the board, meaning five teams already had their top two tailbacks. Cedric Benson went a bit higher than most analysts had him projected, but Jim’s from Chicago, so that was to be expected. Our first wide receivers went, and not surprisingly, it was the four best – Harrison, Smith, Holt and Ocho Cinco.

ROUND THREE

25. Jon – Thomas Jones (RB)
26. David – Clinton Portis (RB)
27. Vaughn – Chester Taylor (RB)
28. Nic – Tom Brady (QB)
29. Adam – Edgerrin James (RB)
30. Jim - Marc Bulger (QB)
31. Andy - Donovan McNabb (QB)
32. Steve - Marshawn Lynch (RB)
33. Nate - Reggie Wayne (WR)
34. Josh – Larry Fitzgerald (WR)
35. Pete – Marion Barber III (RB)
36. John – Philip Rivers (QB)

Only two wide receivers went in Round Three (Wayne and Fitzgerald) and only six have been selected in all. Like most leagues, the depth at wide receiver, even among the top-flight guys, will last well into the fourth and fifth rounds. That’s all the more reason to load up on running backs early (23 have been drafted already!) and worry about your pass-catchers later. With Tomlinson, McAllister and Thomas Jones already, Jon Bellwood is obviously following that model. The market for quarterbacks is also getting a bit thin as the nearly unanimous top five are already off the board after three rounds.
 

ASM Fantasy Football: The Draft
ROUND FOUR

37. John – Terrell Owens (WR)
38. Pete – Lee Evans (WR)
39. Josh – Matt Hasselbeck (QB)
40. Nate – Marques Colston (WR)
41. Steve – Antonio Gates (TE)
42. Andy – Carnell Williams (RB)
43. Jim – Javon Walker (WR)
44. Adam – Ahman Green (RB)
45. Nic – Brandon Jacobs (RB)
46. Vaughn – Tony Gonzolez (TE)
47. David – Jerious Norwood (RB)
48. Jon – Jamal Lewis (RB)

Four rounds in the books and we’ve still only seen 10 wide receivers taken, and there is still plenty of top-tier guys on the board. The pool of available running backs has gotten even thinner, however, with five more taken in round four. Some good value was still there, however, including Williams, Green and Lewis, who will be their teams’ unquestioned No. 1 backs. Nic and I both got some upside with Jacobs and Norwood – guys who might share some carries early in the year, but have loads of potential to be big-time threats by Week 5. Steve took our first tight end (Gates), and Nate’s squad is looking a little thin with only one running back (Maroney) in his stable. Also, there’s a good lesson here about drafting big-name guys without looking at the stats. Tony Gonzolez routinely goes in the top five rounds, but look at his numbers. He accumulated just 122 fantasy points last year (900 yards, five TDs). Meanwhile, 27 different receivers topped that mark, and Desmond Clark, who wasn’t even drafted, had only 25 fewer points at the tight end position last year.

ROUND FIVE

49. Jon – Donald Driver (WR)
50. David – Roy Williams (WR)
51. Vaughn – T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR)
52. Nic – Randy Moss (WR)
53. Adam – Anquan Boldin (WR)
54. Jim – Reggie Brown (WR)
55. Andy – Andre Johnson (WR)
56. Steve – Plaxico Burress (WR)
57. Nate – Adrian Peterson (RB)
58. Josh – Jeremy Shockey (TE)
59. Pete – Hines Ward (WR)
60. John – Calvin Johnson (WR)

Now the run on wide receivers comes. Ten were selected in Round Five, including rookie Calvin Johnson. The upside is clearly there for Johnson, who was among the most dominant wide outs in college football the past two years, but rookies have been known to struggle. If Johnson turns out to be the second coming of Randy Moss (1,313 yards, 17 touchdowns his rookie year) or the second coming of Charles Rogers (197 yards, 1 touchdown his rookie year) may go a long way to determining John’s team’s fate this season.

ROUND SIX

61. John – Darrell Jackson (WR)
62. Pete – Vince Young (QB)
63. Josh – Laveraneus Coles (WR)
64. Nate – Braylon Edwards (WR)
65. Steve – Santana Moss (WR)
66. Andy – Todd Heap (TE)
67. Jim – Vincent Jackson (WR)
68. Adam – Ladell Betts (RB)
69. Nic – Brandon Jackson (RB)
70. Vaughn – DeAngelo Williams (RB)
71. David – Tatum Bell (RB)
72. Jon – Fred Taylor (RB)

Let me get this out of the way now: I hate Vince Young. I never liked him in college, and while he managed to earn Rookie of the Year honors last season, his stats (12 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 51.5 completion percentage) were hardly stellar by fantasy standards. Add to that the Madden Cover jinx (and as an owner of Shawn Alexander last season, I’m a firm believer), and you’ve got one risky pick by Pete. Wide receivers continued to fly off the board in Round Six, including Vincent Jackson, who is one of my top players to watch this year. Jon, Vaughn, Adam and I all still found some value at running back as well. Tatum Bell may not be a big name, but unlike most players who thrive in Denver, Mike Shannahan did nothing tho help Bell’s confidence early in his career. With Kevin Jones’ nagging injuries and increased attention being paid to Detroit’s passing game, Bell could have a career year.

 

ASM Fantasy Football: The Draft
ROUND SEVEN

73. Jon – Joey Galloway (WR)
74. David – Julius Jones (RB)
75. Vaughn – Ravens (DST)
76. Nic – Kevin Jones (RB)
77. Adam – Vernon Davis (TE)
78. Jim – Bears (DST)
79. Andy – Greg Jennings (WR)
80. Steve – Warrick Dunn (RB)
81. Nate – LenDale White (RB)
82. Josh – Chris Chambers (WR)
83. Pete – Alge Crumpler (TE)
84. John – Kellen Winslow (TE)

Three tight ends went off the board in Round Seven, including Vernon Davis, another player I think will have a big year. I went back to the well on a running back once again, giving me five in the first seven rounds. Sure, I don’t have a QB or a TE, but I like to live dangerously. Vaughn and Jim, our Chicago boy, became the first owners to take a defense/special teams when they selected Baltimore and the Bears, respectively. This isn’t a bad move, but outside of the Ravens, Bears, Patriots, Chargers and Steelers, I’m not sure there’s a defensive unit worth taking prior to Round 12. Nic took the aforementioned Jones, whose injuries could cause him to miss the first half of the season, while Nate took a gamble on White, who is currently third on the Titans’ depth chart but was the first of their running backs selected. Dunn may have been a steal for Steve, as Atlanta head coach Bobby Petrino has announced the veteran will likely be the Falcons’ starter for Week 1.

ROUND EIGHT

85. John – Patriots (DST)
86. Pete – LaMont Jordan (RB)
87. Josh – DeShaun Foster (RB)
88. Nate – Deion Branch (WR)
89. Steve – Terry Glenn (WR)
90. Andy – Donte Stallworth (WR)
91. Jim – Jerricho Cotchery (WR)
92. Adam – Mark Clayton (WR)
93. Nic – Vernand Morency (RB)
94. Vaughn – Bernard Berrrian (WR)
95. David – Tony Romo (QB)
96. Jon – Chargers (DST)

Two more defenses off the board, and I finally landed a quarterback. The real story here though might be Pete’s selection of LaMont Jordan. Last year, this guy was a first-rounder in many drafts. Now he’s one of the last running backs taken. Sure, Oakland’s offense is a disaster, but to get a starting running back with the 86th overall pick is still a heck of a good move. Jerricho Cotchery, one of Josh’s top picks for a break-out season, was taken by Jim, while my arch-nemesis, Donte Stallworth, went one pick earlier to Andy. Good luck with that, Andy. My guess is you’ll have pulled all your hair out by Week 8. There hasn’t a more frustrating player in fantasy football for the past four years than Stallworth.

ROUND NINE

97. Jon – Jon Kitna (QB)
98. David – Santonio Holmes (WR)
99. Vaughn – Jay Cutler (QB)
100. Nic – Chris Cooley (TE)
101. Adam – Kevin Curtis (WR)
102. Jim – Michael Turner (RB)
103. Andy – Matt Leinart (QB)
104. Steve –Eli Manning (QB)
105. Nate – Ben Watson (TE)
106. Josh – Isaac Bruce (WR)
107. Pete – Mike Bell (RB)
108. John – Shayne Graham (K)

Here’s another great reason not to worry about wide receivers too early: Josh selected Isaac Bruce with the 106th overall pick. Bruce went a full 88 picks after the first WR taken, Marvin Harrison at No. 18. So how do their numbers compare? Over a 16-game season last year, Bruce averaged just 4.8 fantasy points less per week than Harrison, who was the top-scoring wide out in the NFL in 2006. There’s just not a vast difference between the top guys and the middle of the pack. Speaking of poor draft strategy, John selected the first kicker of the day at No. 108. Shayne Graham may get a few opportunities on Cincinnati’s high-octane offense, but he was just the 12th-best kicker in fantasy last year. Not to mention, the difference between him and the best kicker (Robbie Gould) was just two points per week. Seriously, DO NOT take a kicker before the last round of your draft. It’s just not worth it. The other big stir from this round was Vaughn’s selection of Jay Cutler, a guy Jim coveted. Perhaps our first trade is brewing already.
 

ASM Fantasy Football: The Draft
ROUND TEN

109. John – J.P. Losman (QB)
110. Pete – L.J. Smith (TE)
111. Josh – Jaguars (DST)
112. Nate – Matt Jones (WR)
113. Steve – Dolphins (DST)
114. Andy – Reuben Droughns (RB)
115. Jim – Jason Witten (TE)
116. Adam – Adam Vinatieri (K)
117. Nic – Drew Bennett (WR)
118. Vaughn – Mike Furrey (WR)
119. David – Chris Henry (RB)
120. Jon – Jeff Wilkins (K)

John atoned (at least a little bit) for taking Graham by adding Losman with the next pick. Losman improved greatly down the stretch last season, and with a top wide out (Lee Evans) to throw to, he may be one of the steals of this year’s draft. While owners focus on the big-name young guns like Leinart, Young and Cutler, it may be Losman who proves to be this year’s break-out QB. Meanwhile two more kickers were taken (ugh!) along with two mediocre defenses. Rounds 9-13 are where you win and lose leagues. The depth you get in those rounds, the sleepers you pick up, and the stars-in-waiting you find with these picks are what makes all the difference. If you waste these picks on kickers and defenses, you’re missing out. Vaughn’s selection of Furrey at No. 118 adds further fuel to the fire of waiting on wide receivers, too. Last year, Furrey was the No. 19 scoring WR, ahead of Hines Ward, Larry Fitzgerald and Santana Moss. Furrey, however, was probably not taken in a single fantasy draft in 2006. Neither, likely, was Marques Colston (No. 14), Jerricho Cotchery (No. 22) or Marty Booker (No. 30). That’s four potential starting WR who weren’t even drafted! So why worry about adding too much WR talent, when you’re likely to have a crack at a top guy as a free agent midway through the season?

ROUND ELEVEN

121. Jon – Ben Roethlisberger (QB)
122. David – Brandon Marshall (WR)
123. Vaughn – Matt Stover (K)
124. Nic – Brett Favre (QB)
125. Adam – Devery Henderson (WR)
126. Jim – Alex Smith (QB)
127. Andy – Nate Kaeding (K)
128. Steve – D.J. Hackett (WR)
129. Nate – Jerry Porter (WR)
130. Josh – Jake Delhomme (QB)
131. Pete – Randy McMichael (TE)
132. John – Greg Olsen (TE)

Let me take a minute to talk about Jerry Porter. Jerry Porter had one catch in four games last year. Jerry Porter called out his head coach and his quarterback last year. Jerry Porter cheered for his team to lose last year. Jerry Porter has never topped 1,000 yards receiving. Jerry Porter has just 13 touchdowns in the past four years combined. I’m not sure why he’s even on the Raiders anymore, and I sure as hell can’t tell you why he should be on your fantasy team. Again, we had two more kickers taken in Round Eleven (seriously, how hard is this to understand?) along with a bunch of quarterbacks who will ride the fantasy pine for most the season (Roethlisberger, Favre, Smith and Delhomme). The two tight ends taken (McMichael and Olsen) both have some heavy upside and could prove to be steals at this point in the draft.

ROUND TWELVE

133. John – Anthony Thomas (RB)
134. Pete – Mushin Muhammad (WR)
135. Josh – Brian Leonard (RB)
136. Nate – Heath Miller (TE)
137. Steve – Leon Washington (RB)
138. Andy – Reggie Williams (WR)
139. Jim – Dominic Rhodes (RB)
140. Adam – Dallas Clark (TE)
141. Nic – James Jones (WR)
142. Vaughn – Wes Welker (WR)
143. David – Eagles (DST)
144. Jon – Bo Scaife (TE)

I like John’s pick of Anthony Thomas quite a bit. There’s a good chance Marshawn Lynch becomes a star in the NFL, but there’s an equally good chance that he A.) gets hurt, B.) is a bust or C.) goes through typical rookie problems. If any of those happen, Thomas could be the starter behind a solid offensive line with a good passing attack to take the pressure off in Buffalo. Washington, Leonard and Rhodes also fit the bill of running backs who may not have a lot of value to start the season, but could be keys to your fantasy title come playoff time. All are excellent examples of finding great value late in the draft. I finally gave in and took a defense, but only because I’m a sucker for the Eagles. I still don’t have a tight end, though, and with Miller, Clark and Scaife off the board, I’m going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel.
 

ASM Fantasy Football: The Draft
ROUND THIRTEEN

145. Jon – Steve McNair (QB)
146. David – Daniel Graham (TE)
147. Vaughn – Alex Smith (TE)
148. Nic – Ronald Curry (WR)
149. Adam – Chad Pennington (QB)
150. Jim – Olindo Mare (K)
151. Andy – Derrick Mason (WR)
152. Steve – Joe Jurevicius (WR)
153. Nate – Eddie Kennison (WR)
154. Josh – Michael Bennnett (RB)
155. Pete – Trent Green (QB)
156. John – Brady Quinn (QB)

And the bottom of the barrel is… Daniel Graham! Congrats, Daniel. Vaughn chimed in by taking the draft’s second Alex Smith at pick 147, while Jon, Adam, Pete and John all grabbed back-up QBs. I can understand the fascination with Brady Quinn, but much like taking kickers before Round 15, I just don’t get the need to draft rookie QBs. Name the last rookie quarterback who had a significant fantasy impact? Even the ones who win the real games rarely win you games in fantasy. Meanwhile, Nate selected Kennison with the 153rd pick in the draft. Last year, Kennison was the 29th-best WR in the league – averaging just 5.5 fewer points per week than Marvin Harrison. Oh, and Kennison is STILL the top WR on the Chiefs.

ROUND FOURTEEN

157. John – Dwayne Bowe (WR)
158. Pete – Neil Rackers (K)
159. Josh – Josh Scobee (K)
160. Nate – Josh Brown (K)
161. Steve – David Akers (K)
162. Andy – Vikings (DST)
163. Jim – Jerramy Stevens (TE)
164. Adam – Robbie Gould (K)
165. Nic – Joe Horn (WR)
166. Vaughn – Chris Brown (RB)
167. David – Brandon Jones (WR)
168. Jon – Dwayne Jarrett (WR)

So five kickers went in Round Fourteen. I guess I can deal with that. Joe Horn might be a steal at pick 165, but then again, he has Joey Harrington throwing to him. Vaughn could have the steal of the draft with Chris Brown at pick No. 166. Jeff Fisher has anointed Brown as the No. 1 back on Tennessee’s depth chart through the first half of preseason. Bowe and Jarrett certainly have some upside as well, although I like the latter player much better. Although rookie receivers tend to struggle, Jarrett is in a good place to succeed. Carolina has a veteran QB, a run-heavy offense, and Jarrett will be teamed with one of the best WR in the NFL. Add to that a big frame which makes him a strong TD target, and Jarrett could be a solid No. 2 WR in fantasy this year.

ROUND FIFTEEN

169. Jon – Chris Henry (WR)
170. David – John Kasay (K)
171. Vaughn – Cowboys (DST)
172. Nic – Broncos (DST)
173. Adam – Panthers (DST)
174. Jim – Rex Grossman (QB)
175. Andy – Correll Buckhalter (RB)
176. Steve – Anthony Gonzalez (WR)
177. Nate – Steelers (DST)
178. Josh – Amani Toomer (WR)
179. Pete – Seahawks (DST)
180. John – Ernest Wilford (WR)

And the draft ends with Ernest Wilford garnering the title of Mr. Irrelevant. I’m thrilled with John Kasay as my kicker – I get him in the last round every year – and I particularly like Andy’s pick of Anthony Gonzolez. In Indy’s offense, there’s a good chance Gonzolez could put up numbers similar to what Brandon Stokely has done for the Colts in years past – if not better.

Check out the ASM team rosters now to see what the owners had to say about the draft.