I’ve spent the past month listening to one “expert” after another tell me that New England will beat Chicago in the Super Bowl. The good teams from last year will all win 12 games this year. The bad ones will finish last again. Oakland will stink. All of it sort of seems like turning on the weather channel to tell me it’s raining when I could just look out the window.

The fact is, most experts are talking out their you-know-what. If you’ve watched the NFL at all in the past 10 years, you should have learned one thing: Parity reigns supreme. Last year is history, and while you can’t take the Super Bowl title away from Indianapolis, you sure as heck shouldn’t be ready to (in Denny Green’s words) crown them again.

Things change. Players change teams, cuts are made, injuries happen, and Al Davis is still alive. So, yeah, Oakland probably will stink. But the rest of the NFL, that’s up in the air.

Of course, that shouldn’t stop us from making picks. It may be a guessing game, but it’s a fun one. But rather than take chalk all the way to the Super Bowl, I tried to give each team an honest evaluation based on what we should expect for this year, rather than what happened last year. I went through the schedule, picked a winner for each game, and here’s what I came up with. And if it’s Pats-Bears for the Super Bowl in five months, well, forget I said anything.

AFC EAST

1.) New England Patriots (12-4)
The Patriots are the odds-on pick from every “expert,” and for good reason. They have the best coach, a top-three quarterback, a stingy defense and finally some help in the wide receiver department. Early absences from Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour could hurt, but there’s still no reason to think New England won’t be the king of this division.

2.) Buffalo Bills (9-7)
This pick may seem surprising, but Buffalo has a lot going for it. J.P. Losman developed significantly last season, and over the final seven weeks of the year, only Tom Brady and Peyton Manning had more touchdown passes. Despite flying under the radar all year, the Bills finished 2006 at 7-9, and a two-win improvement is certainly not out of the question.

3.) New York Jets (7-9)
The Jets were last year’s surprise team, but much of it was done with smoke-and-mirrors. The truth is, this still isn’t a great team, and it is playing in a great conference. Of the Jets’ 10 wins last season, six came by eight points or less. With the perpetual parity of the NFL, those eight points can evaporate quickly from one season to the next.

4.) Miami Dolphins (6-10)
Trent Green is old and battered. The receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. Ronnie Brown’s job is being threatened by Jesse Chatman! This just isn’t going to be a very good team this year.

AFC NORTH

1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
The Steelers were a huge disappointment in 2006 coming off their Super Bowl title, but while they certainly underachieved, they also finished 6-2 down the stretch. With Ben Roethlisberger healthy once again and some fresh blood on the sidelines in Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh will be the team to beat in the North once again.

2.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
The defense needs some work, but if Chad Johnson says big things are in store, I believe him. I mean, he’s not the type of guy to make bold predictions for no apparent reason, right?

3.) Baltimore Ravens (7-9)
I can’t figure why everyone is so high on the Ravens. The defense is another year older, Steve McNair is hardly the player he once was, and the division is one of (if not the) toughest in football. The schedule is brutal, and the Ravens just aren’t as good as most people think they are. If McNair plays 10 games I’ll be shocked.

4.) Cleveland Browns (5-11)
It’s going to be another long year by the lake, and Romeo Crennel won’t survive yet another lackluster campaign. But on the bright side, there won’t be a reason to keep Brady Quinn on the sidelines past Week 6.

AFC SOUTH

1.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
The defense is atrocious, and it will keep the Colts from repeating as Super Bowl champs, but it won’t keep them out of the playoffs. At San Diego and at Baltimore are the only remotely challenging road contests outside the division, and with Peyton Manning still chucking the ball downfield, there’s no reason to think the offense can’t more than make up for the defensive shortcomings.

2.) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
The handling of the Byron Leftwich situation made about as much sense as an episode of “John From Cincinnati,” but that shouldn’t change the fact that Jacksonville has a fantastic run game and a ferocious defense. This is a team that won’t win a lot of popularity contests, but should be competitive each time out.

3.) Tennessee Titans (6-10)
Sure, the Titans and Vince Young were a nice story last year, but it was most likely a case of too much, too soon. Like San Francisco in the NFC, the team appeared to progress by leaps and bounds, without the talent on the field to explain why. The backfield is a mess, the receiving corps is even worse, the defense needs work, and then there’s that little thing about VY being on the cover of Madden. Six wins may be a bit high, now that I think about it.

4.) Houston Texans (6-10)
I actually think this franchise is headed in the right direction, and 8-8 might not be out of the question. The defense should be solid, Matt Schaub is a good QB, and the receiving duo of Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones could be special. But just like it has been since the team’s inception, the O-line is still a big question, and therefore, so are the Texans.

AFC WEST

1.) San Diego Chargers (13-3)
Philip Rivers has a year of experience under his belt. It’s doubtful Shawn Merriman will be suspended for four games again. The team’s only major personnel loss was the aging Donnie Edwards. Oh, and there’s a guy named Tomlinson in the backfield. I may live to regret saying this, but not even Norv Turner could screw this up.

2.) Denver Broncos (12-4)
So here’s my surprise team for this year. Not surprising in that the Broncos will be good, but just how good. There’s so much going for this team, it’s impossible not to like them. Improved running game with Travis Henry in the backfield. Hey, he’s playing to support nine illegitimate kids, for chrissake. Jay Cutler has six starts of experience under his belt. The wide receivers are above average. The defense is strong and just added Simeon Rice to the mix. They have a good home-field advantage, and the Broncos could be this year’s media darlings after two teammates died during the offseason. But more than anything, look at this: Nine games against Buffalo, Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland, Houston, Green Bay and Detroit. At Indy, San Diego and Chicago are likely the only three games all season in which Denver will not be favored.

3.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)
This team will be brutal. Bad offensive line. Bad quarterback. No wide receivers. Brutal defense. And a running back with more mileage than a 40-year-old porn star. Add to that the fact that Herm Edwards is completely insane, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. The four wins mostly comes from the fact that KC is still a tough place to win in December, no matter how bad the Chiefs are.

4.) Oakland Raiders (2-14)
Yeah, they should be better, but I had Daunte Culpepper as my starting fantasy QB last season, so I’m bitter. In fact, I’m fairly certain the only reason people think they’ll be better is because they can’t be any worse, but that's not necessarily true. Al Davis won't spend a dime on anything, and now he's got a completely inexperienced coach and a No. 1 draft pick who will be the first draftee unsigned at the start of the season since Bo Jackson in 1986. What franchise did Bo play for again? Oh right! Oakland has taken the mantle as the single worst franchise in sports. Congrats, Devil Rays. You’re off the hook for a while!
 

NFC EAST

1.) Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
I hate the Cowboys. Hate them. Then I went through the schedule, added up the wins, and here they are. I feel sick.

2.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
This division, more than any other, comes down to quarterback play. And if Donovan McNabb is healthy all year, I still think the Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC. If he gets hurt? Well, let’s just say there won’t be enough cheese wiz in Philly to get over seeing Jeff Garcia in a Bucs jersey.

3.) New York Giants (5-11)
Like I said, this is a division that will come down to QB play, and I’m willing to bet Eli Manning falls flat on his face… again. Remember, he won’t have Tiki Barber there to bail him out this year, and if you’re on the Brandon Jacobs bandwagon, you might want to bring your iPod. It will be awfully lonely on there by December.

4.) Washington Redskins (5-11)
Let’s go ahead and call it: Joe Gibbs Part II sucked more than Weekend at Bernie’s II. In fact, it’s entirely possible Gibbs is dead and Al Saunders and Gregg Williams have been staging an elaborate farce for the past two years.

NFC NORTH

1.) Chicago Bears (11-5)
I don’t like the Bears as a legitimate Super Bowl threat. The defense was overrated last year, they had excellent special teams play that isn’t often repeated from year to year, and Rex Grossman is still Rex Grossman. But that said, they play six games against the rest of this division, which is sort of like being the hottest guy in a retirement home.

2.) Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
I wanted to like the Vikings this year, I really did. They’re a good team, with a very underrated defense. I love the backfield combo of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, which could be as dangerous as Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister were for the Saints in 2006. But then I remembered that Tavaris (or Tarvaris… can we figure this out once and for all?) Jackson was their quarterback and his top receiver was Bobby Wade. Prince just threw up in his mouth a little bit.

3.) Detroit Lions (5-11)
Put it this way: When Jon Kitna is the best QB in a division, the division SUCKS. But even that won’t be enough to boost the Lions to respectability, despite what Kitna told the media this preseason. But hey, at least Matt Millen is another step closer in his 26-year rebuilding plan.

4.) Green Bay Packers (4-12)
An open letter to Brett Favre: Dear Brett, Please go away. Seriously. Please. I’ll give you a dollar. Go. Away. Now. Love, Dave. P.S. If you can take Roger Clemens with you, that’d be great.

NFC SOUTH

1.) New Orleans Saints (11-5)
The Saints are like the Bengals of the NFC – Tons of offense, and a defense that leaks like a Polish submarine (you know, with the screen doors?). Still, I see Bush making huge strides as a runner this year, and Devery Henderson and Terrance Copper are two sleepers to look out for in your fantasy leagues. There aren’t any dominant teams in the NFC, but the Saints might be the most dangerous.

2.) Carolina Panthers (10-6)
I’m in a quandary here: On one hand, I’m almost certain David Carr will be the starting QB here by Week 6. On the other hand, after going through the schedule, I see the Panthers as a playoff team. Now, how can both of these things be true? It’s like saying the Iraq War is winnable while Bush is still president. Still, the defense is good, the DeShaun Foster-DeAngelo Williams combo in the backfield should be productive, and Steve Smith gives the offense just the right amount of swagger. But of all my playoff picks, this is the one I’m the least confident about.

3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
The Bucs may be the most nondescript team in the NFL. The defense isn’t close to what it was in its heyday, and the loss of Simeon Rice will be huge. They’re carrying four QBs into the season, which places them just ahead of Jacksonville on the list of team’s who know what they hell their doing with their offense. And when it comes down to it, is there anything about this team that excites you at all? Yeah, me neither.

4.) Atlanta Falcons (5-11)
This team was 15-17 the past two years WITH Michael Vick. And if you’re drinking the Joey Harrington Kool-Aid, you’d better hope it comes with a side of some strong whiskey. You’ll need it to watch this offense.

NFC WEST

1.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
I was down on the Seahawks throughout most of training camp. Then I asked myself why. Seattle was a playoff team last year despite its star QB and reigning MVP running back missing significant playing time. Seneca Wallace started FIVE GAMES for them last year, and they still finished 9-7. Plus, Seattle has perhaps the biggest home-field advantage in the NFL, going 26-6 at Qwest Field over the past four years. They’re the class of a tough division.

2.) St. Louis Rams (9-7)
Honestly, I had figured on the Rams as a nearly sure-fire playoff team this year. I like the offense, the defense is improved, and Steven Jackson says he’s putting up 2,500 yards. And hey, I don’t like to argue with Steven Jackson. So… why the bump down? For one, the NFC West may be the most balanced division, top to bottom, in the NFL. Secondly, the Rams travel to Dallas, Baltimore, New Orleans and Cincy outside the division this year. That’s brutal. Add to that home games against Carolina and Pittsburgh, and it’s hard to see the Rams winning 10 games.

3.) San Francisco 49ers (7-9)
Big strides were made last year, but again, they seem like the Titans, only without the Madden cover jinx. We’ll see more on-field progress in San Fran, but the same results in the standings.

4.) Arizona Cardinals (6-10)
Every year I think the Cardinals are going to be a surprise team. Every year they stink. Hey, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me the past three seasons… well, you get the point.

Playoff predictions:

AFC Wild Card:

Denver over Pittsburgh
Cincinnati over Indianapolis

NFC Wild Card:

Philadelphia over  Dallas
Seattle over Carolina

AFC Division:

Denver over New England
San Diego over Cincinnati

NFC Division:

Chicago over Seattle
Philadelphia over New Orleans

AFC Championship:

Denver over San Diego

NFC Championship:

Philadelphia over Chicago

Super Bowl pick:

Denver 28, Philadelphia 24

You heard it here first.