If you don’t believe in the theory that “The best team finishes the season with the best record, while the hottest team finishes with the world title,” then you’d better take another look.

Since the ending of the New York Yankees Dynasty in the fall of 2001, there have been six different World Series champions – none of which were considered to be title contenders back in April. With the recent trend of teams emerging from the dust to capture the crown, it is our responsibility to sift through this year’s crop of contenders that you wouldn’t have carved into the Commissioner’s Trophy back at the onset of the season.

Using the growing trend that teams that appear to capitalize in the playoffs are there as a result of a fluke season, I will deliver odds for each team with a shot to enter the postseason next week with the newly initiated “Fluke Factor” criteria. Recent playoff success lowers a team’s Fluke Factor, while reaching the postseason in consecutive years enhances their odds. Note that this is not a scientific study, but rather a look at the intricacies that plague the logistics of predicting the future in the baseball world.

Before previewing this year’s potential Cinderellas, let’s take a quick look at the past six champions who defied the odds and utilized a high Fluke Factor en route to stealing the crown. The past six champions are the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Anaheim Angels, the Florida Marlins, the Boston Red Sox, the Chicago White Sox, and the St. Louis Cardinals. Of those six teams, only the Red Sox and the Cardinals had made the playoffs in the season before winning the title, and only the Red Sox and Diamondbacks qualified for the playoffs in the season after – both of whom were swept in the first round. More interestingly, the Cardinals won it all last year, and barely nudged their way into the dance by winning the division with only 83 victories. It appears that a dominant regular season and a string of consistent playoff appearances is not the formula for winning World Series championships.

Coming into this year’s postseason, it is possible to employ this Fluke Factor theory in order to predict the eventual champion. However, each team that is on the verge of clinching a spot in the bracket enters the second season with an element of surprise about them. The two yearlong favorites to capture their respective pennants, the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets, have floundered down the stretch and their armor appears to be cracking. The second half surges of the Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, and Philadelphia Phillies have everyone in their cities believing they can carry the success into the playoffs.

Beginning with the lowest Fluke Factor and ranging to the highest, we break down the teams looking to crack into the MLB’s second season.

No Chance

New York Yankees – Judging by their inability to close the door over the past six seasons, the odds against the Yankees reclaiming the title are very high when considering that they are the antithesis of a fluke team. They have reached the postseason for the past twelve consecutive years, won four World Series titles and six American League pennants. They are always the favorite and haven’t been able to get it done since 2000.

Unlikely

Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox have been the best team in baseball for nearly the entire season. However, they won the championship in 2004, and have clinched a spot in the playoffs for the fourth time in the past five years. They already broke the Curse of the Bambino in 2004, and thus disqualify themselves from contention of highest Fluke Factor ranking.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Like Boston, the Angels have recently won the World Series. This immediately limits their ability to sneak up on the opponent to deliver the fluke victory. They have become a powerhouse in the AL West, winning their third division title in the past four years.

High Risk

New York Mets – The New York Mets have been the favorites in the National League all season. They were an inning away from the World Series last year and have spent much of the season looking down on the rest of the league. Their recent September swoon has shown the rest of the league that they are vulnerable and thus more likely to be considered a fluke team. They have not won a title in 21 years, but are poised with three battle-tested veteran arms in Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, and Orlando Hernandez.

San Diego Padres – San Diego has made it to playoffs for the past two seasons, and has reached the World Series as recently as 1998. They have a young collection of talent and have been the favorites to win their division all season. Whether they enter the postseason as a division champion or a Wild Card winner, their appearance is ultimately expected. This limits their ability to be considered a team that will be able to come out of nowhere to hoist the trophy on the season’s final day.

Now We’re Talkin’

Arizona Diamondbacks – The only reason they aren’t a lock to be considered as The Fluke Team this season is because they are one of the past six teams who have won a title. Otherwise, they are an extremely young team that absolutely no one penciled in as the NL West champions prior this season. They have shocked the league with their consistent pitching and their team oriented offensive approach. They have a very high probability of surprising a lot of teams and can ride Brandon Webb to many playoff victories.

Philadelphia Phillies – These Phillies have not reached the postseason since 1993 and have not won a title since 1980. The City of Brotherly Love has experienced nothing but heartbreak for the past 25 years, and it almost seems like no team from Philly will ever win again. This is what makes this Phillies team so interesting. They have fought back from the dead and are right on the heels of the Mets entering the final week of the season. If they can fight their way into the playoffs, they will continue to play like a team with nothing to lose.

If the Ring Fits…

Cleveland Indians – The Indians have not reached the postseason since 2001 and have not won a title since 1948. They reached two World Series in the late ‘90s, but have been a rebuilding squad for the better part of the past decade. They also finished fourth in the division last season and now appear to be one of the hottest teams entering the postseason – a major indicator of Fluke Factor enhancement.

Chicago Cubs – Cubs fans have suffered as they’ve seen the cross-town White Sox win their first title in 88 years and the Boston Red Sox’s first in 86. They are still saddled with the longest championship drought in sports and haven’t won a title since 1908. The Cubs were horrific last year and among the worst teams in all of baseball a season ago. But they spent an exorbitant amount of money this past offseason and brought in a managerial wizard in Lou Pinella. They hope to follow the blueprint of the 2004 Red Sox and the 2005 White Sox as plagued franchises that finally got over the hump.

Almost a Lock for the Series

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers have been rebuilding seemingly since the 1980s, and last reached the postseason in 1982. They have never won a World Series in franchise history and it almost seems like this potpourri of talented youngsters will be able to squeak out a title following decades of despair. Of course, one loss after another down the stretch means they might be on the outside looking in, which leaves us with...

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies are very similar to the Cleveland Indians. They finished fourth in their division last year, and last reached the postseason in 1995. They have a lineup of solid youngsters like Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Holiday and Brad Hawpe, and finally have some pitching. If they can continue this hot streak and win the Wild Card, this will be a mortal lock for the team with the highest potential to be the fluke World Series champion of 2007.