Fantasy Hoops Preview

                
                
                

		
		
		


	
	
        
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Fantasy Hoops Preview
By Nick Kanios | Published  10/15/2007 | Fantasy Leagues | Unrated
Nick Kanios
 
Nick Kanios is a journalism major at San Jose State and will be hosting a radio show in the spring. He's also a die-hard Golden State Warrior fan and therefore deserves your pity.
 

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Fantasy Hoops Preview
If you are a big enough sports fan to be reading “AtomicSportsMedia,” then it’s safe to say you have a fantasy football team. After drafting Reggie Bush and Laurence Maroney, your fantasy season might read more like a biography about the Iraq war: “No end in site.”

Well never fear, it’s just about time for another fantasy season, perhaps one that’s often overlooked. I think I’ve met more people who play fantasy NASCAR or fantasy golf than NBA, and I don’t know why it doesn’t get the love.

So whether you are a pro or just getting started, it’s always important to go into every fantasy draft well prepared and with a specific game plan, and here are a few tips before you start your own.

1. Don’t worry about position (for the most part)

In fantasy baseball and football, generally you draft based on position as opposed to production. That’s not the case in basketball. Most formats start PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, two centers, and two utility spots of any position. So after your typical starting five there still are five spots in your lineup everyday line up. Basically, if your starting center is mediocre but you make that up with a phenomenal third guard, your team is better for it. Of the five positions, point guard is by far the deepest while center is the only position somewhat lacking. I would advise avoiding point guards until at least the third round, where you can pick up the likes of Deron Williams, Allen Iverson or Baron Davis. I’ve seen Tony Parker drafted as a second point guard and Stephon Marbury falling past round nine. On the flipside, I’d avoid reaching for a center. In the later rounds you can always nab some rebounding/shot blocking specialists -- serviceable guys like Andrew Bogut and Zaza Pachulia fall well beyond round nine.

2. You don’t need to win every category

The typical fantasy basketball league has nine categories; FG%, FT%, 3-pointers made, points, rebounds, assists, blocked shots, steals and turnovers. When I first participated in a categorical fantasy draft, I solely drafted based on player ability. Basically, I had the Isiah Thomas philosophy. It doesn’t work in reality and it doesn’t work in fantasy either. Though I killed it in points, rebounds, and assists I’d pretty much lose every week 3-6. Anyway, I tried the opposite approach the next year, making sure I had players successful in EVERY category. That season I lost most weeks 2-7. Basically, there’s a happy medium. There are two strategies I tend to employ. Either ignore 3-pointers or ignore FG-FT%. If you avoid players who shoot 3s, you’re more likely to select players who shoot better from the field. Also, players who shoot 3s are more likely to hang around the perimeter; by avoiding those players you are more likely to have guys who prefer to mix it up inside (guards who cut to the hoop, forwards who post up). This will lead to not only a better FG%, but more points overall and more rebounds.

I’m not a big fan of this strategy for two reasons: First, it’s very difficult to predict FG%. If you have Allen Iverson or LeBron James, when they’re hot they’re hot, when they’re not, they’re not. Basically, if AI goes 3-19, having Andris Beidrins go 5-6 is hardly going to help. Second, I think 3s are a category you can dominate if you pick up one of the big time 3-point scorers like Gilbert Arenas or Ray Allen. Combine either of them with one or two 3-point specialists and it can be a category you win every week. But, if you find yourself with no 3-point shooters after three rounds it’s something to think about. The other method, ignoring FG-FT%, I find much more successful. I also tend to ignore guys who cause a lot of turnovers. But by ignoring these categories you are able to get vastly productive guys in the later rounds. I mean if you can get LeBron in the first round (Normally falls to six because of his poor foul shots) you start off with a guy who has the most points/rebounds/assists combined. If you can get Ray Allen in the second round (the man who is going to lead the league in 3-pointers made even if he plays 60 games) and somehow Dwight Howard in the third (going to finish top three in rebounding), I don’t see how your team won’t be successful, barring injuries. On a side note, it’s important to draft guys who actually PLAY. Having a guy who shoots 40 percent from 3, but only manages three shots a night does nothing for you. There is no limit to how many minutes you can throw out there in a given week, so take advantage of that. It’s better to have a guy with mass production and low efficiency than high efficiency with low production.

3. For the love of Pete, ignore big names!

This is a rule for all fantasy sports but bears reminding. You might like Grant Hill a heck of a lot more then Jason Kapono, I have an old Pistons jersey of his in my closet. But when you look at what they can bring your team you should probably go with Kapono. Again, this is something Isiah Thomas should apply. This is the NBA, not “NBA Live 98.”

4. Players to avoid by round.

1. Jason Kidd (Can he hold up? Besides, not much better than PGs you can find two rounds later.)
2. Marcus Camby (Getting older, really only gives you boards and shot blocks.)
3. Kevin Durant (I don’t think he’ll do well enough to be in your top five, let alone go this high.)
4. Brandon Roy (I really love him, but will lingering injuries slow his season?)
5. Rasheed Wallace (Detroit actually has some depth for once, Sheed likes to hang around 3-point line too much these days.)
6. Jason Terry (Good chance he gets regulated to the bench.)
7. Luke Ridnour (Don’t think he’s going to be involved in the Sonics long term plans.)
8. Chris Kaman (How long are we going to wait around for his *upside?*)
9. Luke Walton (Phil Jackson hinted he could be coming off the bench.)
10. Nick Collison (Expect the Sonics to go small; a healthy Swift spells fantasy doom for Collison.)
11. Derek Fisher (You gotta love what he’s done over his career, but point guard is pretty crowded in Laker land.)
12. Ruben Patterson (Yeah, he’s not going to combust on this team. Not to mention he’s fighting with Al Thorton and Corey Maggette for minutes.
13. Smush Parker (Just don’t.)

5. Players to take if they fall by round

2. Chris Bosh (Better player than Yao, generally slips past him AND counts as a center/forward.)
3. Dwight Howard (Dear lord I wouldn’t mind seeing him go in the first round, and he’s falling to the third?  If you see him this late take him.)
4. Kevin Martin (He’s making noise in preseason, has a great shot to take it to the next level.)
5. Luol Deng (Until further notice he’s still their No. 1 option. Contributes a lot on defense as well.)
6. LaMarcus Aldridge (No Oden is bad for the Blazers, but Aldridge will be given free reign in the middle.)
7. Andrea Bargnani (Can’t say enough good things about him. He’s hitting his 3s and should count as a center by December.)
8. Andris Biedrins (You could take him in the late sixth round. He’s the only big Nellie trusts, will walk into 10 rebounds a night.)
9. Jameer Nelson (flavor-of-the-year for a breakout performance. Certainly worth the upside this late.)
10. Kendrick Perkins (Can’t begin to tell you how much I like this sleeper. KG will gain so much attention, his great passing and willingness to share should help.)
11. Jason Kapono (Was last year a fluke? Quite possibly. But he could help you out in the three department.)
12. Devin Harris (This late???? Lord he could start for most fantasy teams. You could take him four rounds earlier and I wouldn’t blink.)
13. Mike Conley Jr (This kid is special, certainly worth a late round flyer.)

6. Other sleepers

Travis Outlaw (Gets his chance with injuries to Oden/Miles. Great talent but kind of a tweener.) JJ Redick (Outside chance he’s starting for Orlando. Might have a Kapano type season.) Al Thorton (Such a physical specimen. Mike Dunleavy is going to love his animalistic relentless style. Leapfrogging Maggette isn’t as hard as it seems.) Marvin Williams (Former second overall choice is getting a little bit of buzz. But is there any room at Atlanta’s forward position?) Paul Milsap (Rebounding machine. Should be getting 25 minutes per game.) Marco Belinelli (Been playing pro ball since he was 16. My sleeper to win ROY) Sean Williams (Shot blocking machine in college, too stupid to be caught with pot. If he stays on the court should be a nice surprise.) Vladimir Radmonovich (Lord knows he’ll get open shots, could be motivated to hit a few after a rocky season last year) Kyle Lowry (Last time I checked, he’s still starting for Memphis.)
 
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