Fantasy football always has its booms and busts. The injury bug bites, some players don’t live up to expectations, and other stars come out of nowhere. But more than any other year, 2007 has been a crapshoot for fantasy owners everywhere.

Dwayne Bowe, Kevin Curtis, Wes Welker, Derick Mason and Roddy White are top-20 wide receivers, while Lee Evans, Javon Walker and Santana Moss don’t crack the top 60. It’s been a wild ride through the first eight weeks, and plenty of owners are wishing they’d scrapped any pre-draft strategy for something with better results – like throwing a dart at a name in your fantasy magazine.

So to give a little more credence to the frustration, let’s take a look back at the first two rounds of Atomic Sports’ fantasy draft to see how the “sure things” have faired.

(Check out ASM's fantasy league standings and scores by clicking here.)

Round 1

1. LaDanian Tomlinson (RB-SD). Tomlinson was the clear No. 1 pick, and true to form, he leads all running backs in fantasy points. Still, for owners who thought Tomlinson would lead them down a clear path to a title, it hasn’t exactly panned out that way. New Chargers head coach Norv Turner seems to forget LDT is on his team from time to time, and the result has been a roller coaster ride through eight weeks. Tomlinson has three weeks with more than 20 points and two with less than 10. Still, in a season full of busts, Tomlinson remains one of the rare sure things.

VERDICT: Boom.

2. Steven Jackson (RB-STL). Like the Rams, Steven Jackson’s fantasy owners are probably struggling. Jackson has missed four games due to injury, and after a nice return to action in Week 8 that yielded 10 quick points in the first quarter, he left early yet again. There’s still time left for Jackson to produce, but it might be too little, too late for fantasy owners.

VERDICT: Major bust.

3. Shaun Alexander (RB-SEA). Alexander owners were probably hoping for 20-point weeks regularly from the former MVP. They have indeed gotten 20 points from Alexander. That’s 20 points TOTAL in his past four games. He clearly misses now-retired fullback Mack Strong. Come to think of it, I miss Mack Strong, too. What a great name.

VERDICT: Major bust.

4. Larry Johnson (RB-KC). Things started more than a little slowly for Johnson and his owners. He topped 10 fantasy points just once in his first five games, including a 3- and 5-point showing early on. But consecutive strong outings (100-plus yards and a score in each of his last two) have salvaged some of his value.

VERDICT: Too soon to say.

5. Frank Gore (RB-SF). Two trendy picks prior to the season: San Fran was heading to the playoffs and Gore would be a fantasy stud. Funny thing happened on the way to Week 9. Gore hasn’t topped 11 points or found the end zone since Week 2, and with the Niners offense struggling, things aren’t looking much better for the future.

VERDICT: Bust.

6. Joseph Addai (RB-IND). Addai missed one game due to injury and shared carries with Kenton Keith in another, but that hasn’t stopped him from becoming as close to a sure-thing as you’ll find in fantasy. He’s averaged more than 23 points per game in his five starts and is clearly the man in Indy.

VERDICT: Boom.

7. Rudi Johnson (RB-CIN). With at least 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns every years since 2004, the one thing you could say about Rudi was that he was consistent. Um, not so much now. Johnson is the 52nd-ranked running back in fantasy, and trails studs like Reuben Droughns, Correll Buckhalter and Ron Dayne in points. Oh, and another guy he trails: Kenny Watson, who has probably stolen his starting job.

VERDICT: Major bust.

8. Peyton Manning (QB-IND). The only non-running back taken in most first rounds, Peyton has been solid as usual, averaging nearly 25 fantasy points per game. Still, as the unanimous first QB taken, some owners may have wanted more. After all, Derek Anderson has more fantasy points.

VERDICT: Minor boom.

9. Laurence Maroney (RB-NE). Maybe you own Maroney and maybe you’re happy he finally picked up some serious yardage last week against Washington. But what is more telling is that in a 52-7 blowout, he never found the end zone. His coach is a jerk who goes four-wide even when he’s up by 45 in the fourth quarter, so running backs in New England – especially ones who rank 40th in fantasy points – aren’t likely to be a good play in fantasy leagues.

VERDICT: Major bust, perhaps the biggest disappointment in the draft.

10. Willie Parker (RB-PIT). Another solid year from Fast Willie, but owners had to be worrying about his lack of touchdowns. Parker had scored just once before finally getting a goal-line carry in Week 8, and despite solid yardage totals, fantasy is all about touchdowns. Still, he looks to be a solid bet the rest of the way.

VERDICT: Minor boom.

11. Brian Westbrook (RB-PHL). Westbrook is fourth in fantasy points among running backs, he’s the biggest cog in the Philly offense, and he has not had fewer than 11 fantasy points in any of his starts this season. Gotta love him.

VERDICT: Boom.

12. Reggie Bush (RB-NO). Bush was expected to have a break-out year, but even without competition for carries from Deuce McAllister, he’s just the 16th-ranked running back in fantasy points. He has been consistent (between 11 and 15 points each week over his last five) but hardly explosive. Perhaps most disconcerting is he is averaging just a shade over 5 yards per catch and only has one receiving TD this year.

VERDICT: Solid, but lot living up to his draft position.

ROUND 2

13. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB-JAC). After an awful start, MJD rebounded with three strong weeks (Weeks 5, 6 and 7). Still, that’s little solace for owners who started 0-4 while the Jags’ back racked up a total of 10 points over the first four weeks of the year.

VERDICT: Bust.

14. Ronnie Brown (RB-MIA). The Dolphins had two things going for them this year: A good offensive line and a top-notch running back in Brown. Now that Brown is out for the year, they have one good thing going for them. Still, that's probably a little better than when all they had going for them was Dave Wannstedt's mustache.

VERDICT: Injury-related bust.

15. Willis McGahee (RB-BAL). The Ravens’ offense stinks. It has pretty much stunk for… well, since Bernie Kosar was the quarterback, the team was called the Browns and they played in a town in Ohio. McGahee has put up decent enough numbers despite the lack of talent around him, but has run for just two scores this year. Still, he has finished with between 11 and 17 points every week, and nothing is better in fantasy than consistency.

VERDICT: Boom.

16. Carson Palmer (QB-CIN). Take away his ridiculous six-TD game in Week 2 and Palmer has been extremely ordinary. He hasn’t topped 16 points in any other week, which isn’t exactly what most owners were hoping for from the QB taken second in most drafts. Then look at upcoming matchups against Pittsburgh, Baltimore and an underrated Buffalo secondary, and it could get uglier.

VERDICT: Minor bust.

17. Travis Henry (RB-DEN). Nine illegitimate kids, three failed drug tests, one touchdown. Let the Selvin Young era begin!

VERDICT: Bust.

18. Marvin Harrison (WR-IND). Hey, I’m always willing to give a Syracuse guy the benefit of the doubt, and Harrison has been too good for too long to count out the rest of the way, but his owners haven’t seen double-digit fantasy points since Week 1.

VERDICT: Bust.

19. Cedric Benson (RB-CHC). Worst. Tailback. Ever. Seriously, 3.1 yards per carry and a high score of 12 fantasy points this year. Who would’ve thought there would be TWO Adrian Petersons better than Benson this year?

VERDICT: Major bust.

20. Steve Smith (WR-CAR). Hey, you’ve got to feel for a guy who is as good as Smith, but as Al Pacino proved when he co-starred with Keanu Reeves in “Devil’s Advocate,” sometimes all the talent in the world can’t overcome an awful supporting cast. Thanks for ruining a star wide receiver, David Carr.

VERDICT: Probable bust.

21. Chad Johnson (WR-CIN). Ocho Cinco still has to be considered one of the top wide receivers in the league, but he’s topped 10 fantasy points just once since Week 3. Worse for Johnson owners is that T.J. Who’s-your-mama has clearly become Palmer’s favorite target. Come on, Carson… with all that’s wrong with the world, why not give us a few Chad Johnson end-zone celebrations to brighten our days?

VERDICT: Minor bust.

22. Drew Brees (QB-NO). If you were still using Brees as a starter last week, good for you. You were probably 0-7, but good for you. Brees started the season with one touchdown and nine interceptions through five weeks, so the season was probably lost for Brees owners long before his Week 8 return to form.

VERDICT: Bust with a change to turn things around.

23. Torry Holt (WR-STL). Four weeks with more than 10 fantasy points, four weeks with less. That’s what happens when the rest of your offense has spent as much time in street clothes as Rams jerseys.

VERDICT: Minor bust.

24. Deuce McAllister (RB-NO). Um, do we really need to discuss this one?

VERDICT: Major bust.

That’s 24 picks, all supposedly can’t-miss players, the best of the best, and at most, only seven are living up to their pre-draft expectations.

Of course, the craziness of 2007 hasn’t been confined to just those first two rounds either. Thomas Jones (zero touchdowns), Clinton Portis (zero 100-yard games in 2007), Marc Bulger (averaging fewer than seven points per start and missed two games), Donovan McNabb (only two weeks with more than 15 points), Lee Evans (113 receiving yards through five weeks), Carnell Williams (out for the year), Javon Walker (missed all but three games), Jerious Norwood (not getting enough carries), Reggie Brown (missing in action), Andre Johnson (played in just two games), Darrell Jackson (just 216 yards on the year), Santana Moss (two fantasy points since Week 3), Vincent Jackson (only 20 catches through seven games), DeAngelo Williams (five fantasy points or fewer in five of seven games), Tatum Bell (inactive the past two weeks) and Vince Young (the 28th –ranked fantasy quarterback, two behind Cleo Lemon and one ahead of Sage Rosenfels) were all picked in the first six rounds of ASM’s fantasy draft. Although, I’m happy to hand out a big “I told you so” on Vince Young.

The recipe for success in fantasy football has been well worn over the years. Your first three or four rounds build your roster’s foundation. These are the guys who should be every-week starts and put up big numbers regularly. The middle rounds are when you fill out your roster with the best players available. They won’t win your league, but they keep you from losing, too. And the late rounds are where you gamble on sleepers, find some handcuffs and make fun of whoever drafts Rex Grossman.

This year, that philosophy has been flipped on its head. The sure things were anything but, and plenty of value was to be found in the late rounds, or wasn’t drafted at all. Derick Mason, Derick Ward, Derek Anderson… pretty much anyone named Derick taken after Round 12, those are your fantasy stars in 2007.

So if you’re 2-6 right now, don’t beat yourself up over it. Like the failure of New Coke or the lack of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, none of us could have seen this coming.

In one of my fantasy leagues, our lowest-scoring team is in line to make the playoffs. In another, the same owner lost in consecutive weeks thanks to Jerricho Cotchery’s touchdown with no time left against Cincinnati and Greg Jennings’ overtime score against Denver. I’ve both won a game by one-tenth of a point and lost a game by one-tenth of a point this year.

Fantasy football, at its heart, is as much about luck as it is about skill. And some years, there just ain’t enough luck to go around.