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That's Nutts
http://www.atomicsportsmedia.com/articles/943/1/Thats-Nutts/Thats-Nutts.html
David Hale
David is a graduate of the University of Delaware and has a masters from  Syracuse University in journalism. He has covered sports for a number of   newspapers throughout the country and currently works as a freelance writer in Lexington, Kentucky.

David is a life-long fan of the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Eagles, 
which he believes may be at the root of every bad thing that has ever  happened to him. His heroes include Ernest Hemingway, Mark Grace and  the entire cast of "The Hills."

He is widely credited as the inventor  of the piano-key necktie, celebrates Michael Bolton's entire  catalogue, and enjoys skinny skiing and going to bull fights on acid.  His favorite color is green, his favorite hobby is sleeping, and his  favorite performance-enhancing drug is Red Bull-and-vodka.

 
By David Hale
Published on 11/24/2007
 


Houston Nutt appears to be on his way out at Arkansas, but he's not alone. Atomic Sports senior editor David Hale takes a look at possible college football head coaching moves, as well as BCS predictions, the Heisman race, an early look at the NFL draft, Johan Santana's future home, Bill Belichick's expanding empire and Wayne Gretzky's wife.

That's Nutts
In columnist terms, this is called a “notes package.” In real-life terms, it would be considered “a cop out.” But in the spirit of the holiday season, let’s call this column our Thanksgiving leftovers.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

-- I can’t figure why Arkansas is in such a hurry to get rid of Houston Nutt. The guy can coach. Arkansas isn’t a talent factory, but Nutt has won, and he has won consistently. The Arkansas athletics department has been the NCAA equivalent of the Knicks’ front office for the past decade – from Nolan Richardson to Mitch Mustain – but Nutt has continued to produce. Perhaps the Razorbacks’ win over No. 1 LSU on Friday will save his job, but who knows? Arkansas fans would be wise to remember how badly Notre Dame wanted to get rid of Ty Willingham, how bad Nebraska wanted to be rid of Frank Solich and how badly Alabama wanted to get rid of Mike Shula. And trust me when I say, Arkansas doesn’t have a fraction of the football cache those schools do. Of course, we’re talking about the same school that canned its head basketball coach last year after going to the NCAA Tournament.

-- Dennis Franchione and Lloyd Carr have already waved goodbye to their head coaching jobs. It appears the next high-profile opening might be at LSU. (Something tells me Michigan fans might be missing Carr sooner than they thought if Les Miles comes aboard.) But there are no less than 20 other coaches who could be on their way out. Here’s a run-down, from most to least likely to get canned:

***Not included on the list: Miles (who looks to be headed to Michigan), Carr and Franchione (who have already resigned), Nutt (who we discussed already), and a handful of mid-majors who will be looking to retool.

Bill Callahan (Nebraska). Some people will say interim-A.D. Tom Osbourne’s gaffe of referring to “the next coaching staff” earlier this season was the first sign that Callahan would be fired. I would argue that allowing 40 points to Ball State may have been an even earlier indication. Anyone remember that Callahan was coaching in the Super Bowl less than five years ago? Oh, by the way, to all those schools looking to hand out big contracts to big-name coaches – Callahan will be earning $1.75 million a year from Nebraska until 2011.

Ed Orgeron (Ole Miss). Ole Miss finishes winless in the SEC for the first time in 25 years. Is it too late to ask David Cutcliffe to come back? Orgeron is gone for sure, and Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher might be the guy to take his place. That would actually be a good hire.

(NOTE: Both Callahan and Orgeron were dismissed before this article was even posted. No surprises there.)

Greg Robinson (Syacuse). I’ve never actually given any money to the Syracse alumni fund, but please, for the love of all that is holy, get rid of this guy. Robinson is 7-28 in three seasons at Syracuse, and only two of those wins have come in the Big East. It takes a lot to make Paul Pasqualoni look good, but Robinson was up to the task.

Chan Gailey (Georgia Tech). It's not that Gailey has done a bad job. He hasn't. He's taken the Yellow Jackets to a bowl game every season he's been at the helm. And it's not that he's not a good guy or a good coach. I've been around him enough to know he is both. But Gailey has never been able to get Tech over the hump, and an 0-6 mark against rival Georgia is probably going to be too much to overcome. He's almost certainly gone (and will have no problem finding an NFL job after interviewing for two head coaching vacancies last year), but the real question revolves around who will replace him. Defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta might seem like a good choice, but despite his remarkable success leading the Tech D, he's widely considered "not head coach material." Personally, I think it's worth the gamble. The players love him, the risk is minimal, and while Georgia Tech has been plagued by inconsistency over the past six years, the one constant has been the defense.

Ted Roof (Duke). I know it’s tough to win at Duke, but one win in two seasons is just awful. Roof’s saving grace, however, may be that no other coach in his right mind would take this job.

Bill Doba (Washington State). Ten conference wins in four years. Doba may be a victim of his own early success. It’s not easy to win at Wassou, but there has to be SOME expectations, right?

Tim Brewster (Minnesota). When it’s difficult to decide whether your 49-48 loss to Northwestern or your 42-39 loss to Florida Atlantic was worse, you’re in trouble. Oh wait, never mind. It was the 27-21 loss to North Dakota State that was the worst! Maybe Tubby Smith can coach the football team, too.

Karl Dorrell (UCLA). I suppose you could call UCLA's win over Oregon a "big win" or a "job saver," but let's face it: If the Ducks had Dennis Dixon under center instead of Ryan Leaf's brother, this never would have happened. Like Georgia Tech, the Bruins have been defined by inconsistency under Dorrell, and it's likely he'll be gone. Don't be surprised if Texas Tech's Mike Leach gets mentioned as a possible replacement. Leach's offensive acrobatics would be college football's version of the Lakers' "Showtime" in L.A., and the Bruins would be thrilled to take some of the attention away from their neighbors at USC. (As a side note regarding Oregon, if you are brothers with Ryan Leaf and you are still the worst quarterback in your family, that's pretty bad.)

Kirk Ferentz (Iowa). He wears his sunglasses at night, so he can, so he can… watch the Hawkeyes lose another game to an inferior Big Ten opponent! After consecutive six-win seasons, Corey Hart’s career may be hotter than Ferentz’s.

Sunny Lubick (Colorado State). A legend in Colorado State history, but he presided over a 13-game losing streak which ended earlier this season, and he has won just three conference games in the past two years. His past success might buy him one more year, but don’t be surprised if he’s shown the door.

Dave Wannstedt (Pitt). Great mustache, bad coach.

Steve Kragthorpe (Louisville). How much of a disaster has this season been in Louisville? Kragthorpe is seriously considering leaving after just one year to take over at Southern Methodist. Oh my!

Tommy Bowden (Clemson). And once again it looks like Bowden will escape by the skin of his teeth. Seriously, every year it looks like he's a goner, and every year he manages to barely sneak by. Clemson's last-second win over rival South Carolina may be this year's 11th-hour pardon for Bowden... and we'll do it all over again in 2008. I wonder how many Clemson fans were actually rooting for South Carolina on Saturday night just to be rid of Bowden forever.

Bobby Bowden (Florida State) and/or Joe Paterno (Penn State). It’s gotta happen eventually, right? Maybe I’m way off here – and let’s be honest, it wouldn’t be the first time – but I’m betting one of them hangs ‘em up this offseason. Hey, it’s no fun if you don’t go out on a limb every now and again.

Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State). He’s a man! He’s 40! He’s not gonna get fired, I just wanted to make fun of his outburst again.

Charlie Weis (Notre Dame). His contract means he’ll stay, but everything else about this season should have him headed out the door. Weis and Eric Mangini have done a great job this season of proving that Bill Belichick really is the brains behind the operation in New England.

Nick Saban (Alabama). Hey, Mike Shula never lost to a Sun Belt team.

-- Props to my boy Omar Cuff. The University of Delaware running back tallied 199 yards and three touchdowns BY HALFTIME in the Blue Hens’ showdown against in-state rival Delaware State in the I-AA playoffs. He finished the game with 288 yards and four touchdowns – setting a new I-AA record for total touchdowns in a season with 37.

-- Speaking of I-AA, I’m still calling it that. I think the NCAA should actually rename I-AA that unpronounceable symbol Prince changed his name to a few years ago. I mean, that makes as much sense as Bowl Championship Subdivision.

-- LSU won’t be playing for a national championship, and perhaps you can make a good argument why the Tigers are now shooting for the undercard in New Orleans. But while LSU has two losses, the Tigers have played through injuries to many of their top players, played in the toughest conference in the country, have the most impressive non-conference win of the year (48-7 over Virginia Tech) and their two losses both came in TRIPLE OVERTIME. But no, we don’t need a playoff.

-- Want more reason to hate college football's system for deciding a champion? Georgia, West Virginia, Arizona State and Ohio State are among the teams that benefit greatly by NOT playing in a conference championship game. The Mountaineers and Buckeyes may be headed to the national championship game, and it's in large part because they haven't had to face the additional competition that SEC and Big 12 teams have. And Georgia has locked up a BCS bid because they finished BEHIND Tennessee in the standings. Had the Bulldogs made it to Atlanta for the SEC title game and lost, they would have had three losses, and may have been on the outside looking in at the BCS. As it stands, by not playing for a conference title, they're a lock for a BCS bowl. Insane. Having conference championship games in only half the BCS conferences is like having one league in baseball let its pitchers hit while the other one didn't. Nothing that stupid would ever happen!

BCS OUTLOOK

-- So, while we're still pining for a playoff, why not take some time to look at what the current system is likely to give us:

Guarantee #1 -- Oklahoma wins the Big 12, defeating Missouri and clearing the way for Ohio State to play for the national championship.

Guarantee #2 -- West Virginia takes care of business against Pittsburgh.

That means your national title game is: Ohio State vs. West Virginia.

Now, I don't believe for a second that Ohio State is the best team in the country (I'd still rank Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Missouri and USC ahead of the Buckeyes), but there's no doubt this will be a great game to watch. The Mountaineers' offense vs. Ohio State stingy D should be a great battle.

Guarantee #3 -- Georgia will be the top at-large team for a BCS berth, which means the Bulldogs will be headed to Pasadena.

With Ohio State headed to the National Championship Game in New Orleans, the Rose Bowl gets first crack at an at-large. They'll go with the Dawgs (the highest-ranked and best-traveling team), which means:

ROSE BOWL: USC vs. Georgia. Let me say that I cannot wait to watch this game. The Bulldogs and Trojans may be the two hottest teams in the country right now, and if there were a playoff in college football, plenty of folks would be betting on one of these two to win it all.

Guarantee #4 -- Only one team from the ACC is making the BCS.

That means the winner of the Boston College-Virginia Tech rematch is headed to the Orange Bowl, and the loser can probably pack their bags for Jacksonville and a date with the Gator Bowl. The Big East, Big Ten and ACC have simply not been very deep this year, and outside of the ACC Championship Game loser, there's virtually no chance of any of the three conferences landing an at-large.

Guarantee #5 -- Hawaii loses to Washington. Congrats to Hawaii for beating Boise State and setting up a shot at a BCS berth. Sadly for the Rainbow Warriors, they still have Washington left on their schedule. It’s a classic let-down scenario against a better-than-their-record-shows Huskies team. Prediction: Washington 31, Hawaii 30.

That's huge for the defending national champs at Florida, because the Gators would likely be the  team to sneak into a BCS if Hawaii doesn't steal one of the spots.

The Orange Bowl gets the second pick of at-large teams, and while there will probably be some higher ranked squads than Florida, the Gators are a natural fit to head to Miami -- and bring a huge crowd with them. So...

ORANGE BOWL: Virginia Tech vs. Florida. And how much fun will it be to watch Tim Tebow try to fight his way through a very tough Hokies defense?

(NOTE: If Hawaii does manage to beat Washington, it will end up in the Sugar Bowl and likely landing Missouri in the Orange.)

Guarantee #6 -- Arizona could -- but won't -- throw this entire process into chaos.

The Wildcats are red-hot, having won three straight, and close out the season against rival Arizona State. Should Arizona win and knock the Sun Devils out of the BCS top 12, the Fiesta Bowl will have to choose between a match-up of two Big 12 teams or pick a three-loss team (Oregon, Arizona State or Boston College most likely) over a one-loss Kansas squad.

But it won't come to that, which is why...

FIESTA BOWL: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State. I think a valid argument can still be made that Oklahoma and LSU are the best teams in college football, with the Sooners' only losses coming by three in the high altitude of Colorado and against high-flying Texas Tech after Sam Bradford went down with an injury. Still, the Fiesta was the best bowl game last season, and this should be a fun match-up to watch, too.

Which leaves us with...

SUGAR BOWL: LSU vs. Missouri. Both of these teams thought they'd be headed to New Orleans -- they just thought they'd be playing a few days later. Again, this should be a great match-up, but both sets of Tigers will feel like they came up a little short.

HEISMAN WATCH

-- Last week I pretty much handed the Heisman trophy to Tim Tebow, and with good reason. But Arkansas' Darren McFadden managed to throw his name back into the debate on the biggest of stages, putting up huge numbers while defeating the No. 1 team in the country. (I predicted that, too, by the way.)

Right now, I'd say it's a dead heat, despite Tebow's superior overall numbers. Voters will likely be less inclined to give the award to a sophomore, and the general consensus is that, while Tebow has had the better overall year, McFadden is clearly the most talented player in college football.

So it could go either way, but I'll still give a slight (very slight) edge to Tebow. Figure on Dixon, Missouri's Chase Daniel and Hawaii's Colt Brennan to be invited to New York as well.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE

-- In a full slate of football games this week (including three blowouts on Thanksgiving), the NFL offered up exactly one game between two teams boasting a better-than-.500 record (Green Bay at Detroit). Hey Commissioner, it’s not parity anymore if two-thirds of your league stinks. The word you’re looking for is “pathetic.”

-- Scary thought, courtesy of a Patriots fan I know: New England has San Francisco’s No. 1 pick in April’s draft. San Francisco stinks and will likely have the second overall pick. McFadden would fit nicely into the Pats’ already disgusting offense. Eric Mangini just threw up in his mouth a little.

-- Another draft prediction: The Dolphins, in need of help on the D-Line, decide on LSU’s Glenn Dorsey as the top pick. But in true Miami fashion, they accidentally take Ken Dorsey instead.

-- Quick question: Is Cam Cameron’s real first name Cameron? So his name would be Cameron Cameron? That would explain a lot.

-- Speaking of the draft, here’s a quick run down of what the top five might look like:

1.) Miami – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU. There’s not much the Dolphins don’t need, but it's always a good idea to start with the line.

2.) New England (via San Francisco) – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. Ugh.

3.) Oakland – Jake Long, OT, Michigan. Protection for JaMarcus Russell.

4.) Jets – Chris Long, DE, Virginia. Jets can’t get to the QB. Long can.

5.) Atlanta – Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville. The Falcons are definitely going to be taking a QB, and Brohm has a nice history with head coach Bobby Petrino.

-- While the blame continues to pile up on Donovan McNabb in Philly, here’s a fun fact: In Andy Reid’s tenure as head coach (since 1999), only one wide receiver has topped 900 yards. That, of course, was “he who shall not be named.” The Eagles second-best receiver of the Reid Era? Probably James Thrash, who averaged 55 catches, 675 yards and 5 TDs over three years in Philly. But go ahead, blame McNabb. I’m sure it’s all his fault, and has nothing to do with Reid’s handling of personnel.

-- Philly’s lack of a receiver throughout Reid’s tenure was the basis for a fun sports debate I had this week: What’s the best (or worst, depending on your perspective) example of a team whose window closed without it winning a title because they failed to find one missing piece to the puzzle?

Here are the rules: The team cannot have won a title at any point (sorry, Atlanta Braves), and missing out on the title has to be because of a personnel failure by your front office, not because of bad luck (sorry Buffalo Bills) or a better player on an opposing team (sorry New York Knicks).

The Eagles are clearly a great example, but I’d say the lack of a top running back for the Dan Marino-era Dolphins is the most glaring personnel failure. Any other suggestions?

-- Playoff predictions: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, San Diego, Indianapolis and Cleveland in the AFC and Dallas, Green Bay, Tampa, Arizona, Seattle and the Giants in the NFC.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

-- I’m hoping it’s not too early to declare my love for Donte Green. The Syracuse freshman could team with Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris to give the Orange a formidable lineup as the season progresses, but I am worried about who’s manning the boards. Washington and Ohio State both had way too many second chances over the weekend.

-- Dear Lord, Michael Beasley is impressive. I think he’d look great in a Sixers’ jersey next season.

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

-- With A-Rod back in the fold, rumors are swirling that the Yankees will add Johan Santana as well. I don’t buy it. They don’t have the positional prospects to make the deal, and they won’t trade Joba Chamberlain.

My prediction for Santana’s landing spot: The Dodgers. It makes a ton of sense. The team is celebrating its 50th anniversary in L.A. and would love to make a big splash. It’s involved in a huge battle for attention with the Angels, who have already made a big splash on the free-agent market by adding Torii Hunter. And more than anything, the Dodgers have the prospects to make a deal happen. And that’s not mentioning GM Ned Coletti’s general distaste for young players and the Dodgers’ veterans’ distaste for their young teammates.

-- If Santana is dealt to the Dodgers, look out. The best pitcher in baseball going to a pitcher-friendly park in a pitcher-friendly league where he’ll face hitters who have never seen him before. He may want to add a big bonus for winning the Cy Young into any new contract.

-- Meanwhile, the Hunter deal in Anaheim/L.A. didn’t seem to make a lot of sense on its face, since the Angels already have Vlad Guerrero, Reggie Willits, Garrett Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr. under contract in their outfield. But my guess is the team has a good idea that at least one of those names (Matthews) is going to surface in the Mitchell report, and 50-game suspensions could be looming.

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

-- You know who’s still hot? Wayne Gretzky’s wife. And she gambles. Man, what a lucky guy.