Football 1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis – Qualities of a first or second round pick: Play 16 games (check) and be a model of consistency (check). When drafting a player such as Peyton Manning, one knows they will most likely get 4,000 yards passing and 30 TDs. This year, however, coming off his worst year in the last five, question marks have flown about the subtraction of Edgerrin James from the potent Colts offense. Without him in the mix, Manning will have to throw more inside the 10 -yard line. Although the Colts will suffer more three-and-outs in their own territory, Manning will be able to gain more touchdowns while accumulating less yards. Manning should attain no less than 3,700 yards and 35 TDs this season making him a very reasonable early second round pick.
2. Tom Brady, New England – The Manning-Brady debate rages on. Only a few years ago, Brady was at best an eighth round pick, now he’s one of the elite quarterbacks in fantasy football. Some may ask, why Brady over McNabb and Palmer? My response is that with top picks, you don’t want to screw up. McNabb and Palmer are coming off of serious injuries. McNabb is expected to be at 100% by opening day, but that could be table talk. The first report on Carson Palmer was that his injury was potentially career-ending. I wouldn’t want that on my hands if I was a fantasy GM or if I was Marvin Lewis. Going back to the qualities of a first or second round pick – Brady isn’t – playing sixteen games a year plus model of consistency both go in favor of the three-time Super Bowl champ. The offense didn’t drop off any after last year’s Charlie Weis departure, so I expect Brady to come back with another strong season this year. Brady is likely a late third rounder. I still think this is high, and not worth it, but if you really want Brady; it might be the price you have to pay.
3. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia – TO? The only story over the last two years coming from Philadelphia football has been about TO. Well, although, Owens may be one of the top five receivers in the league, McNabb may do quite well without teh-RELL’s or TARE-ell’s presence on and off the field. (I think he pronounces it TARE-ell, whereas ex-Bronco RB, teh-RELL Davis, pronounces it the other way.) McNabb is supposedly back to full strength coming into training camp for the first time in his career. I’m not so optimistic, but McNabb’s ability on the field can not be doubted. If he plays all or most of the games, then he will likely post similar, if not better, numbers to Brady. McNabb should be a fourth or fifth rounder.
4. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati – Ranking Palmer is one of the toughest assignments this year. Palmer could be the absolute best quarterback in the league. He was last year, and he’s entering his prime with targets in the backfield and in the receiving corps. However, the potential career-ending injury is still lurking in the background, and I am not sure if I want to put my season’s hopes squarely on the ACL of Carson Palmer. This is a high-risk, high-reward pick, and I would honestly expect to see Palmer as the second QB off the board in most leagues. He worries me, but if he fell to me in the fourth round; it would be hard for me not to capitalize. Most leagues will see him go in the third round.
5. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle – This year Hasselbeck could be rated as a top-3 QB option if you don’t want the injury risks of McNabb or Palmer, however I don’t envision an upside as high for Hasselbeck as the players rated above him. Without Steve Hutchinson, not only will Alexander’s yards go down, but Hasselbeck may have less time to throw the ball, leading to less efficiency on his behalf. Hasselbeck’s a safe starter, but he’s not worth more than a fifth to sixth round pick.
6. Eli Manning, New York Giants – Even a tougher schedule won’t keep the younger Manning off the scoreboard this year. Manning is a year older and a year wiser. After his breakout statistical year and Roethlisberger’s championship, one would imagine that Manning may be inclined to perform even better this season. At this point, none of the quarterbacks separate themselves from the pack, so I would personally pass. Manning is at most a sixth rounder. However, between six and 13, any of these quarterbacks are ample starters who will not help you severely. Take two of the top 13, but use two picks between the eighth and tenth round to grab them. Most likely, people will not have been taking their back-ups yet and you will get to choose between your quarterbacks every week depending on hot streaks and/or schedule difficulty. A Bulger/Delhomme tandem wouldn’t look too bad if you have seven rounds of picks before them. Think about it, and decide for yourself.
7. Drew Bledsoe, Dallas - Look what Terrell Owens did for Jeff Garcia in San Francisco. Bledsoe has always been a solid quarterback and last year he had a mini resurgence. Expect his numbers to get even better in 2006.
8. Jake Delhomme, Carolina - With a weaker rushing attack and the addition of Keyshawn Johnson, Delhomme should be looking to throw the ball more this year. Steve Smith was the best receiver in football last year and will likely come close to those numbers again this season. If you can get Delhomme in the seventh or eighth round, it will be a bargain.
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh - Last year’s Super Bowl champion became this year’s Needless Offseason Injury King with his near-death motorcycle accident. Big Ben could crack the top five if his condition is stable, however a huge risk is associated with picking this daredevil.
10. Trent Green, Kansas City- Without a top notch receiver and a consistently star-filled backfield, Green has continued to put up numbers worthy of a fantasy starter. However, Larry Johnson will dominate red zone touches, and Herm Edwards will lead to a decline in Green’s TD numbers. Still, Green is looking to post his fourth consecutive 4,000 yard season. Yardage leagues take note.
11. Michael Vick, Atlanta - This is it, ladies and gentlemen. Fantasy experts, gurus, and champions agree that Michael Vick will never be a worthy first-round pick, maybe not even a fantasy starter. So, through the theory of reverse logic, I can see Michael Vick running for 800 yards and 10 TDs, along with 3,500 yards and 25 TDs passing. Vick has been heralded for the last few seasons as the messiah, so with this year’s negativity, Vick finally has something to prove. He would be a fantastic backup quarterback in a ten team league.
12. Daunte Culpepper, Miami - Only one year ago, Mr. Culpepper was a first round pick, after coming off a season that saw him throw for nearly 5,000 yards and 40 TDs. Pretty impressive, eh? Now, after tearing every CL in his knee, Culpepper will never return to his 10 rushing TDs of 2002, and will likely become a pocket passer. Good luck. Chris Chambers will hope that Culpepper doesn’t get injured because he doesn’t want a Duck throwing him the ball.
13. Marc Bulger, St. Louis - Continually underrated, and I continually say he’s overrated. Without Martz, Steven Jackson will probably see several more carries this season. However, Scott Linehan is no Bill Cowher. The ball will see the air, and barring injuries Bulger will be the one throwing it. Gus Frerotte is a viable back-up, but he is clearly not worth benching Bulger over.
14. Aaron Brooks, Oakland - I used to think Randy Moss could make any quarterback a superstar. Two qualifications: throwing it long and throwing it far. Even though his arm is strong enough to overthrow the Chinese government, Kerry Collins would differ in that opinion after he lost his job. Brooks isn’t a “proven quarterback,” but he has started plenty of games in the league giving the Raiders a safe, or not so safe, choice to lead the offense. If the Raiders find themselves out of contention, Andrew Walter is supposed to be making a charge to take over the quarterback position midseason.
15. Billy Volek, Tennessee Ten - When Steve McNair was injured two seasons ago, Billy Volek came in to surprise the fantasy talking heads when he posted numbers reminiscent of the Arena Football League. This year, Volek won’t have to be looking ahead of him on the depth chart, just over his shoulder at Vince Young. Volek is definitely worth a try as a back-up just in case he and wideout Drew Bennett can rekindle some of their 2004 magic.
16. Jake Plummer, Denver - A model of inconsistency on the football field, yet surprisingly consistent for fantasy football, Jake Plummer had no terrible games last year that would have destroyed a fantasy team’s chances for success. He’s just another solid back-up that might end up profiting from the Broncos’ success once again this season.
17. Kurt Warner, Arizona - Well, he’s not going to replicate his “Greatest Show on Turf” years, but Warner may put up some good numbers in a system that gives him some great targets. Fitzgerald and Boldin will both easily go over 1,000 yards. Leonard Pope will add a big target that can gain a few yards in a splash, and Edgerrin James always falls forward. The only Cardinal I’d be worried about is Neil Rackers, who will likely falter this year without as many field goal opportunities.
19. Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville - My sleeper for last year really falls back a notch after Jimmy Smith retired, Fred Taylor lost a step, and Matt Jones – Matt Jones! –became his top option. Leftwich is poised to take over for Steve McNair as the tough quarterback who always happens to get injured once McNair retires. Why is it when a quarterback, who gets hit five times in a game, always gets injured he’s tough, but when a running back, who gets hit 20 times, gets injured he’s injury prone. Just look at the portrayal of Taylor and Leftwich, and you’ll see what I mean.
20. Brett Favre, Green Bay - Is it insane to have Favre this low? Possibly. I’m just not sure that he’ll have a much better year than last year. And nobody, I mean nobody needs a quarterback who posts three, two, and one point in the typical fantasy playoff weeks of 14-16.
21. Drew Brees, New Orleans 22. Mark Brunell, Washington 23. Phillip Rivers, San Diego 24. Brad Johnson, Minnesota 25. Chris Simms, Tampa Bay 26. David Carr, Houston 27. Jon Kitna, Detroit – A deep sleeper because he’s not a sexy pick. However, if he does well after Week 1, he might deserve a roster spot. 28. Charlie Frye, Cleveland 29. Chad Pennington, New York Jets 30. Rex Grossman, Chicago 31. Kellen Clemens, New York Jets 32. JP Losman, Buffalo – I believe he’ll start more than Holcomb, but by no means will he become a reasonable quarterback this year. 33. Brian Griese, Chicago 34. Matt Schaub, Atlanta - One of the top ten quarterbacks in the league will hopefully find a permanent home. 35. David Garrard, Jacksonville 36. Matt Leinart, Arizona 37. Kyle Boller, Baltimore 38. Joey Harrington, Miami 39. Gus Frerotte, St. Louis 40. Kelly Holcomb, Buffalo 41. Andrew Walter, Oakland 42. Vince Young, Tennessee 43. Jason Campbell, Washington 44. Trent Dilfer, San Francisco 45. Jay Cutler, Denver 46. Brooks Bollinger, New York Jets - Hey, all the quarterbacks on the Jets got hurt last year. Two years in a row is a possibility.
Jim Snaza can be reached at jimsnaza@atomicsportsmedia.com. © Copyright by Atomic Sports Media, Inc. |